There is just one more event left until the PGA TOUR shuts downs ShotLink for the holiday season. It's The RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club.
It's a full field with 156 golfers set to peg it across the Seaside Course and Plantation Course over the first two rounds. From there, the top 65 and ties will play the weekend. In theory this should be the hardest event of the season we've seen so far in terms of getting 6-of-6 golfers through the cutline.
Even if we assume there are 10 golfers that tie for the last spot and 75 golfers make it through, that would still be just 48% of the field that earns a weekend tee time.
This is a home game for a lot of golfers in the field (Sea Island Mafia) so you need to make the decision on whether they are in the field due to convenience or whether they still have a fire burning. Of course, we don't have the necessary tools to gauge someone's mental state so that adds another wildcard to the puzzle that is known as DFS golf. At this stage of the year, a lot of golfers are worn down and ready for a break. Others are just hitting their stride and ready to strike while the iron is hot.
Let's jump into the weather then look at some course-fit stats like seeing who likes to play on bermuda turf.
Thursday (R1): Clear with a high of 68 degrees. Very small chance of rain with winds calm around 5 MPH.
Friday (R2): Overcast but low chance of rain with a high of 73 degrees. Humid with calm winds.
It looks like smooth sailing after last week's downpour in Mexico. Saturday does bring the possibility of light rains but nothing that should shut down shop. Winds remain relatively calm for the week.
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts.
The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings.
Jim Furyk (65.50 Projected Pts): Sea Island is a great venue for him on paper and he's supported that with finishes of T11 or better in four trips. However, he missed the cut here last year and arrives with no competitive reps since Las Vegas. He's finished outside the top 25 in 10 of his last 12 starts so the chances are low that he truly crushes you if you fade him or drop him down your board.
James Hahn (62.25 Projected Pts): He's making his first appearance here since the 2015 edition and he's still trying to play his way back into form since returning from injury. Hahn has played just three events since his return with finishes of T68, T23, and T58. If we take the median (T58) then we have realistic expectations for him this week. That makes him a bit of a stretch at 15th on the draft board.
Harry Higgs (32.05 Projected Pts): Cited fatigue for his mini-slump before the surge in Bermuda. That little bit of rest seems to have helped him as he's now finished runner-up and T33 in his last two starts. He's back on track and was one of the hottest golfers on the Korn Ferry Tour, coming down the stretch last season. Someone that should be much higher on the draft board.
Scottie Scheffler (40.53 Projected Pts): The ball-striking machine remains well-tuned this fall with top 20s in four of his last six starts. He's hard to put him anywhere outside the top 20 when building a draft board but realistically he's a top 5 or 10 option so don't let him slide to his auto-draft position.
Heading to Sea Island Golf Club means bermudagrass turf. It's a real comfort turf for a lot of these pros that grew up down South.
Looking at sample-size-adjusted performance in rounds played on bermuda over the last three 3 years (PGA, KFT, Euro Tour) the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this:
Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bermuda (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:
Vegas and Mitchell don't really fit the straight-shooting course prototype and Sabbs and Kuchar have never really played that well here. Could they be due for a big week finally or does something about the course layout not fit their eye?
Doc Redman: It's natural for gamers to have biases which leaves Redman in the doghouse for a lot of DFSers after Redman missed the cut last week in Mexico. However, he fits the straight-shooting archetype that we are looking for at Sea Island Golf Club. He's hit more fairways than the field in nine straight PGA TOUR starts which is the recipe for low scores out here on a short course that doesn't reward power. Don't give up on Redman just yet.
Best of luck in all your contests this week!