Thor's "Draft Haul" Grades

By now, you’ve no doubt read 25 draft grades columns. Hopefully, you’ve also read at least one UDFA class rankings column. For my last column of the 2019 NFL Draft cycle -- I promise this time! Pinky swear! -- I wanted to do something a little out there. An overall “draft haul” grade that combined each team’s draft class and UDFA crop and measured total talent acquired against draft equity spent. Add it all up and see what the numbers say after the dust cleared.

To do this, I enlisted my math whiz colleague Hayden Winks, a Jedi of sorts in Excel. I asked him to come up with a formula that judged each team’s total draft haul, top UDFA signings included, by the draft equity it took to acquire it (based on my top-500 rankings).

Each draft slot and top-500 ranking slot on my board was assigned value by a weighted formula, so that, for instance, the differences between the Nos. 4 and 11 picks was the same as the difference between the No. 57 (bottom of R2) and No. 194 (mid-R6) picks.

The "haul grade" rankings and grades below were 90% based on the value each team got out of their draft slots. The other 10% of the equation came from my UDFA class rankings. That percentage -- one-tenth of the pie -- may seem high at first blush. But check out what SB Nation found about the contributions of UDFAs. 

My UDFA class rankings are included below for reference. As are the draft class value rankings that the model deduced. Trades are not included in the grades below. In this exercise, we’re only trying to ascertain who bought the most amount of talent with the least amount of draft equity. You can think of it like a Groupon guide to maximizing the NFL Draft process: Whose buck stretched the furthest?

And lastly: I graded each team's draft haul on a curve. Only 15 of the 32 NFL teams were assigned grades of B- or above. A "C" is truly a C -- middle of the pack.

1. Tennessee Titans | Draft: 2, UDFA: 14 | 2019 HAUL grade: A+

The Titans drew one of the two A+ snap grades I assigned this year, and then they went out and signed a solid UDFA class as well. I absolutely loved the Jeffery Simmons pick. But that was only the beginning.

The Titans got particular value at 2.51 with AJ Brown (a late first-round talent in my eyes) and in the fourth with Amani Hooker (a second-round talent who was one of a couple top-8 safeties who fell through the cracks).

2. Los Angeles Chargers | Draft: 1, UDFA: 29 | 2019 HAUL grade: A+

I was smitten with the Chargers draft, and naturally the model was too. The Chargers made seven picks. In six of the seven, they took a player I ranked higher than the slot they were picking in, the highest such value hit rate in this year’s draft.

Tillery and Adderley at the end of Rounds 1 and 2 were value bonanzas, and I absolutely loved each and every one of the Bolts’ Day 3 picks. The Chargers did very little in the post-draft UDFA portion of the show.

3. New York Jets | Draft: 3, UDFA: 18 | 2019 HAUL grade: A

The Jets scored huge points for drafting Quinnen Williams at 1.3 and Blake Cashman at 5.157. Because of the weighted scales, getting my top overall prospect with the third pick scored as a top-10 value selection in all of the draft.

Meanwhile, Cashman, a player with a second-round grade on my board, returned New York the fourth-most value of any pick, per the model. The Jets also scored big value with Chuma Edoga in Round 3, and got bonus points from strong UDFA additions Greg Dortch and Tyler Jones.

4. New Orleans Saints | Draft: 5, UDFA: 1 | 2019 HAUL grade: A

The Saints put themselves in a bad spot with last year’s overpay for Marcus Davenport. But as mentioned above, that move isn’t factored into this grade. We’re judging how much rookie talent was acquired relative to draft slots used. And in that metric, the Saints killed it. Possessing only two top-175 picks and three top-230 picks, New Orleans left the draft process with seven guys I ranked inside the top-205.

That’s nifty thrift store shopping. Each pick was sound, and the Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Alizé Mack picks in particular were enormous values. Then, the Saints turned around and weaponized their lack of picks into an advantage during the UDFA process, convincing three of my top-30 UDFAs (Ozigo, Granderson aka “The Grandy Man”, and old man Chase Hansen to take their talents to the French Quarter).

5. Arizona Cardinals | Draft: 4, UDFA: 25 | 2019 HAUL grade: A

I didn’t care for Arizona’s decision to sell low on Josh Rosen in order to facilitate what I believe was an overdraft of Kyler Murray. The Rosen trade wasn’t factored into the numbers, but the Murray pick significantly docked Arizona’s overall grade. Despite that, and despite a meager UDFA haul, the Cardinals still left the draft with top-4 talent value at the slots they picked in. That’s because Arizona absolutely annihilated every pick from 2.33 Byron Murphy through to Mr. Irrelevant Caleb Wilson. Hakeem Butler with the first pick in the fourth round was the best pick in the draft. You think I'm abandoning Hakeem Island because the NFL whiffed on him? Please. He's going to do damage in this offense.

I’ve consistently crushed the Kliff Kingsbury hiring. So allow me to give full credit where it’s due: Kliff’s intimate knowledge of this year’s draft class — he either recruited, coached, or coached against every player in the class, or was buddy’s with somebody who had — shined through on Draft weekend with a dominant showing. If Kyler Murray becomes the NFL superstar most already assume him to be, the Cardinals ship is going to turn around quickly. If he doesn’t, one heck of a draft class may get squandered due to the decision to trade Josh Rosen and Quinnen Williams (or Nick Bosa) for Kyler Murray and Andy Isabella.

6. Los Angeles Rams | Draft: 6, UDFA: 20 | 2019 HAUL grade: A-

Like the Saints, the Rams didn’t have a ton of draft equity to play with. But they made of what they had, snapping up a value pick basically every time they submitted a card.

My favorite pick was Michigan CB David Long at 3.79. A highly-underrated player, Long looks poised to outplay his draft slot.

7. Buffalo Bills | Draft: 7, UDFA: 26 | 2019 HAUL grade: A-

I’m sorry, Buffalo. It appears I was a bit too harsh when I assigned a “B” to your class in my “Snap Grades” column written immediately after the draft concluded. I wrote: “The Bills absolutely crushed their first three picks. Buffalo is going to love Ed Oliver, or as I call him, John Randle 2.0. I thought the rest of the haul was pretty weak.”

The methodology used for these rankings rewarded teams who got tremendous value in the first two rounds in particular, and that’s where Buffalo shined as bright as any team in the NFL. Oliver was a top-10 value pick in the entire draft (my No. 3 prospect at 1.9), and the model judged Ford to be a top-50 value pick (my No. 23 prospect at 2.38).

8. Cleveland Browns | Draft: 8 UDFA: 24 | 2019 HAUL grade: B+

The Browns made like the Saints and Rams and successfully Moneyballed the draft after trading a first-round pick. In Cleveland’s case, that sacrifice led to the acquisition of Odell Beckham, which you can feel free to mentally bake into this grade. Two picks stand out, both from the SEC. The NFL soured on Greedy Williams because of a mysterious injury concern and the prospect’s aversion to tackling. But he’s the only corner in this class that you can project to stick with NFL WR1s of all shapes and athletic profiles, so to get him at 2.46 is highway robbery.

I felt the same about the Mack Wilson pick at 5.155. The NFL effectively passed along a verdict to Mack that he should have returned to school. He’s raw, sure, but Wilson will be a good NFL backup and an ace special-teamer at the very minimum. And he’s got the tools to potentially develop into a plus starter at linebacker as well. He's not a top-150 prospect in this class? C'mon, what are we doing here?

9. Philadelphia Eagles | Draft: 10, UDFA: 8 | 2019 HAUL grade: B+

The gambit to move up the board to steal Andre Dillard from the Texans was one of the best moves in all of the draft this year. The model also called the Dillard pick the third-best best value selection in the entire draft.

The rest of Philly’s draft crop was solid, if unremarkable. But the Eagles did what they do and brought in some hidden value in the UDFA ranks, which bumped Philly from a No. 10 draft value ranking to a No. 9 total haul ranking.

10. Washington Redskins | Draft: 9, UDFA: 27 | 2019 HAUL grade: B+

I was higher on the Redskins’ draft than the model ended up being — I assigned Washington’s draft one of the two A+’s I gave out. But while Washington drew a ton of value out of the Haskins and Sweat picks (and to a lesser extent the Harmon and Moreland picks), the model baked in penalties for early Day 3 reaches on interior linemen Wes Martin and Ross Pierschbacher.

Also, Cole Holcomb. On top of that, Washington got dinged one slot for its poor UDFA crop. But let's be real: This draft was an enormous win for the Redskins. Nobody in their right mind would have envisioned one team coming out of the draft with both Haskins and Sweat even one month ago.

11. Baltimore Ravens | Draft: 11, UDFA: 11 | 2019 HAUL grade: B

The Ravens had a bonanza of a Round 3, stealing the all-time FBS sack leader Jaylon Ferguson and SPARQ darling WR Miles Boykin. Baltimore didn’t reach with the rest of their picks (except for Trace McSorley lol), and they complimented their class with a nice crop of UDFAs.

12. New England Patriots | Draft:12, UDFA: 16 | 2019 HAUL grade: B

I liked the Patriots class a bit more than the model did, mostly because I thought New England smoked their first six picks. But the three picks after that were head-scratchers, beginning with the fingernail-biting Jarrett Stidham, and the Pats didn’t do much in the UDFA portion of the show, drawing penalties.

13. Denver Broncos | Draft: 13, UDFA: 15 | 2019 HAUL grade: B

Strong, workmanlike showing out of the Broncos here, with a solid value-minded draft and a good UDFA crop headlined by the criminally-underrated Brett Rypien (who I’ve postulated has a chance to have a longer career than R2 pick Drew Lock). The Dre'Mont Jones pick at 3.71 was robbery, and getting Dalton Risner at 2.41 was a stroke of good fortune.

14. Houston Texans | Draft: 15, UDFA: 12 | 2019 HAUL grade: B-

I liked the Texans draft more than most. It was pure horror watching the Eagles swoop in and steal Dillard. That forced Houston to reach for Tytus Howard. That was a rough sequence of events. But from there on, Houston had a tremendous draft and signed a decent crop of UDFAs. It was enough to avert disaster after a horror show of a Thursday night.

15. Chicago Bears | Draft: 16, UDFA: 6 | 2019 HAUL grade: B-

The Bears scarcely had draft equity to play with, but they made the most of their first pick by stealing David Montgomery (or as I call him, “Kareem Hunt with a heart of gold.”). Consider setting aside a $20 spot to drop on Montgomery at long odds for Rookie of the Year. He's got a real shot. He's better than the NFL thinks he is. The rest of the draft crop was forgettable, but the Bears made up for it with a big showing during the UDFA free-for-all.

16. Minnesota Vikings | Draft: 14, UDFA: 30 | 2019 HAUL grade: C+

A strong pick in Round 1, a highly regrettable Day 2, an enormous Day 3, and an asleep-at-the-wheel UDFA class led to a perfectly league-average Draft Haul ranking. Garrett Bradbury is such a perfect fit, and he allowed the Vikings to kick Pat Elflein to guard, which made the pick a hidden 2-for-1 special from a schematic standpoint.