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Quinnen Williams Draft
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Thor's "Draft Haul" Grades

by Thor Nystrom
Updated On: May 9, 2019, 9:09 pm ET

17. Jacksonville Jaguars | Draft: 18, UDFA: 13 | 2019 HAUL grade: C+

1.7Josh AllenED12789.74Anthony Barr-plus6'5262
2.35Jawaan TaylorOT316n/an/aTrent Williams6'5312
3.69Josh OliverTE1017044.98.21Austin Hooper6'5249
3.98Quincy WilliamsSXURn/an/a 5'10225
5.140Ryquell ArmsteadRB1114824.07.77Jordan Howard5'11220
6.178Gardner MinshewQB1223150.75.96Chase Daniel6'1225
7.235Dontavius RussellDL323487.43.36Shamar Stephen6'3319
PFAJoe Giles-HarrisLB212003.93.09Antonio Morrison6'2234
PFASaivion SmithCB292387.73.26Jacoby Glenn6'1199
PFADonnell GreeneOT20242n/an/aWillie Beavers6'5335
PFATyre BradyWR352942.62.79Josh Reynolds6'3211
PFAZedrick WoodsS2531988.58.91Quintin Demps5'11205
PFABunchy StallingsOG283343.31.28Isaac Asiata6'3324
PFABrandon WatsonCB4747669.16.92De'Vante Harris5'10204


The Jaguars derived an enormous amount of value from their first two picks, getting a top-three talent at 1.7 and a mid-first round talent at the top of Round 2. Despite those wins, Jacksonville sagged to No. 17 in the rankings with a poor run to close the draft, including the baffling overdraft of Quinnen Williams’ brother on Day 2.


18. Miami Dolphins | Draft: 20, UDFA: 2 | 2019 HAUL grade: C+

1.13Christian WilkinsDL52144.48.55Kawann Short6'3315
3.78Michael DeiterOG69726.85.68Forrest Lamp6'5309
5.151Andrew Van GinkelLB3535786.69.25Dadi Nicholas6'3241
6.202Isaiah PrinceOT1210443.87.63Shon Coleman6'6305
7.233Chandler CoxHB844716.63.83Dimitri Flowers6'1236
7.234Myles GaskinRB2326931.05.99Bishop Sankey5'9205
PFADeion CalhounOG912871.99.34PM's Shaq Mason6'2310
PFAPreston WilliamsWR201536.12.76Mack Hollins6'4211
PFATerrill HanksLB1718816.54Stephone Anthony6'2242
PFAMontre HartageCB3732518.73.38Eric Murray5'11190
PFAJonathan LedbetterDL283290.41.24Jeremiah Ledbetter6'4280
PFARyan AndersonOC143536.24.63Bryan Stork6'5305
PFATre WatsonLB373682.30.48Ben Gedeon6'2242
PFATyler HortonCB434340.51.02Corn Elder5'11185
PFAAaron MonteiroOT4146430.46.48Jaryd Jones-Smith6'6311
PFANik NeedhamCB494882.52.91Linden Stephens5'11194


I hated what the Dolphins did with their picks. But to their credit, they brought in a high-end UDFA class and also completed the stroke-of-genius Josh Rosen trade that isn’t included in this grade.


19. Carolina Panthers | Draft: 17, UDFA: 32 | 2019 HAUL grade: C

1.16Brian BurnsED31094.19.9Leonard Floyd6'5249
2.37Greg LittleOT98136.33.63Greg Robinson6'5310
3.100Will GrierQB45757.87.22Case Keenum6'2217
4.115Christian MillerED17125n/a6.84Samson Ebukam6'3247
5.154Jordan ScarlettRB303753.54.75Chris Ivory5'11208
6.212Dennis DaleyOT1918315.53.95Jordan Mills6'5317
7.237Terry GodwinWR4237028.75.3Lavelle Hawkins5'11184
PFAElijah HolyfieldRB202562.82.56Matt Asiata5'10217


The Panthers no-showed the UDFA process after signing a bunch of AAF guys, and I thought they air-balled the 2.37 pick of Greg Little as well as the fliers for Scarlett and Godwin. But the Panthers still managed to grab a top-20 grade due to enormous values on Burns and Grier.


20. Cincinnati Bengals | Draft: 19, UDFA: 19 | 2019 HAUL grade: C

1.11Jonah WilliamsOT2717.75.51Jake Matthews6'4302
2.52Drew SampleTE814151.69.02Jack Doyle6'5255
3.72Germaine PrattLB1014432.68.51Danny Trevathan6'2240
4.104Ryan FinleyQB816257.27.84Connor Cook6'3213
4.125Renell WrenDL1416177.29.74Akiem Hicks6'5318
4.136Michael JordanOC410668.87.97Alex Boone6'6312
6.182Trayveon WilliamsRB1014215.14.69Nyheim Hines5'8206
6.210Deshaun DavisLB343564.32.65Hayes Pullard5'11234
6.211Rodney AndersonRB15163n/an/aStevan Ridley6'0224
7.223Jordan BrownCB2318172.08.13Bennett Jackson6'0201
PFAStanley Morgan Jr.WR149581.58.62Marqise Lee6'0202
PFAKeaton SutherlandOG2528394.39.69Steinbach-lite6'5316
PFAO'Shea DugasOG3739613.23.16Jamil Demby6'4330
PFAJordan EllisRB354232.02.54Elijah Hood5'9229
PFAJacob DolegalaQB2447444.26.72Brad Sorenson6'7242


An up-and-down draft process for the Bengals, who hit it out of the park with the Jonah Williams pick and signed this year’s best UDFA in Nebraska WR Stanley Morgan. But Cincy devolved into a hit-and-miss M.O. with its other machinations, and the UDFA crop doesn't yield much promise outside of Morgan.


21. Kansas City Chiefs | Draft: 22, UDFA: 3 | 2019 HAUL grade: C

2.56Mecole HardmanWR3731159.38.31Travis Benjamin5'10183
2.63Juan ThornhillS45199.59.75Marcus Williams6'0205
3.84Khalen SaundersDL1110346.08.56Zach Kerr6'0324
6.201Rashad FentonCB4037915.14.5Greg Maybin5'11193
6.214Darwin ThompsonRB1416070.38.05Tarik Cohen5'8198
7.216Nick AllegrettiOC924838.07.56Mark Glowinski6'4310
PFAMark FieldsCB2015439.47.28Ellis Hobbs5'10192
PFAJames WilliamsRB1822232.55.75James White5'9197
PFAGary JohnsonLB2623941.85.69Jerome Baker6'0226
PFAKyle ShurmurQB1532221.84.27C.J. Beathard6'4230
PFAParker HesseED3133536.26.1Matt Judon6'3261
PFAJack FoxP4393n/a8.33Cody Mandell6'2213
PFAFelton DavisWR48418n/an/aMarquez North6'3211
PFATim WardED42438n/an/aDemetrius Cooper6'5265
PFAJamal CustisWR5345630.76.5Jordan Matthews6'4214
PFACody ThompsonWR5748670.58.46Brian Hartline6'1205


I loved the Thornhill and Thompson picks, and the Chiefs UDFA crop graded out top-3 in all of the NFL. Kansas City sagged in the rankings because I thought the rest of their draft was quite poor, notably the reach for Hardman.


22. Pittsburgh Steelers | Draft: 21, UDFA: 28 | 2019 HAUL grade: C-

1.10Devin BushLB21296.99.33Shaq Thompson5'11234
3.66Diontae JohnsonWR2621013.14.22Jeremy Kerley5'10183
3.83Justin LayneCB64587.08.97Eric Rowe6'2192
4.122Benny Snell Jr.RB172199.73.51Leroy Hoard5'10224
5.141Zach GentryTE183738.42.54Bryce Williams6'8265
6.175Sutton SmithLB67238.75.6Joe Schobert6'0233
6.192Isaiah BuggsDL212111.81.93Tyson Alualu6'3306
6.207Ulysees Gilbert IIILB2931586.48.25Matt Milano6'0224
7.219Derwin GrayOT1817612.73.08DonoVan Smith6'4320
PFAFred JohnsonOG1924311.23.49John Wetzel6'7326
PFAChris NelsonDL3840610.31.51Malcom Brown6'1298
PFAGarrett BrumfieldOC1742766.58.04Ted Larsen6'3289
PFATravon McMillianRB3844618.25.8Jonathan Franklin5'11210


Pittsburgh made a nice move up the board for Devin Bush in Round 1 and then scooped up a steal on Day 2 (Layne) and Day 3 (Smith). The rest of the class feels like a throwaway, and little was done in the post-draft portion with UDFAs.


23. Green Bay Packers | Draft: 23, UDFA: 22 | 2019 HAUL grade: C-

1.12Rashan GaryED63194.99.95Robert Nkemdiche6'4277
1.21Darnell Savage Jr.S35086.58.35Antoine Bethea5'11198
2.44Elgton JenkinsOC35450.19.34Billy Price6'4310
3.75Jace SternbergerTE34222.05.25Greg Olsen-lite6'4251
5.150Kingsley KekeDL1718446.48Willie Henry6'3288
6.185Ka'dar HollmanCB4241973.79.23Dee Delaney6'0196
6.194Dexter WilliamsRB1315770.18.17Jamaal Williams5'10212
7.226Ty SummersLB2522988.29.71Nick DeLuca6'1241
PFAYosuah NijmanOT1411495.99.8Timon Parris6'7324
PFAGreg RobertsED3536955.48.84Obum Gwacham6'5264
PFAManny WilkinsQB2142143.56.3Taylor Heinicke6'2193
PFANate BrooksCB4545487.27.53Howard Wilson6'0187
PFATaylor CorneliusQB2549188.89.73Mitch Leidner6'6224


I hated the Gary pick and disagreed with the decision to sink so much equity into Darnell Savage when good safeties were still on the board in Round 4 (this isn't hindsight analysis -- there were eight or nine safeties in this class that most reasonable minds concluded were within shouting distance of one another, so we knew a few were going to be available later than otherwise might have been and that proved to be the case).

All that said, the Packers absolutely destroyed their two Day 2 picks and then signed the second-best UDFA prospect in Nijman to salvage the overall crop. The Sternberger pick in particular was genius. He's going to light it up in this offense.


24. New York Giants | Draft: 25, UDFA: 7 | 2019 HAUL grade: D+

1.6Daniel JonesQB33278.88.1Ryan Tannehill6'5221
1.17Dexter LawrenceDL627n/a9.87Linval Joseph6'4342
1.30Deandre BakerCB5389.54.58Tre'Davious White5'11193
3.95Oshane XiminesED1511933.37.03Carl Lawson6'3253
4.108Julian LoveCB32860.87.06Ronde Barber5'11195
5.143Ryan ConnellyLB2321359.27.82Nick Vigil6'2242
5.171Darius SlaytonWR3932792.28.91Breshard Perriman6'1190
6.180Corey BallentineCB1612695.59.37Robert Alford5'10196
7.232George Asafo-AdjeiOT3538955.59.04Joseph Noteboom6'5306
7.245Chris SlaytonDL2525935.07.58Jaleel Johnson6'4307
PFATerronne PrescodOG162240.90.98Duke Robinson6'5334
PFAPaul AdamsOT2225820.66.58Ryan Groy6'6317
PFAReggie White Jr.WR3428484.59.24Seantavius Jones6'2208
PFAEric DungeyQB1429357.47.61Bryce Petty6'4228
PFAJames O'HaganOC122960.40.1Austin Reiter6'2300
PFAC.J. ConradTE1631419.56.0David Morgan6'4249
PFABreckyn HagerED3335562.57.1Devante Downs6'3255
PFAAlex WesleyWR4942235.55.9Robbie Anderson6'0190
PFAJosiah TauaefaLB454497.14.2Elandon Roberts6'1232
PFAMark McLaurinS314628.42.6Trayvon Henderson6'1212
PFAJon HillimanRB4248044.78.7Onterio Smith5'11216


The Giants needlessly squandered a metric ton of draft equity to acquire Jones, Lawrence and Baker in Round 1. And my model hammered them for it. The Giants averted abject disaster by grabbing one of the draft’s biggest steals in Julian Love on Day 3, and by bringing in a nice UDFA haul.


25. Detroit Lions | Draft: 24, UDFA: 17 | 2019 HAUL grade: D+

1.8T.J. HockensonTE1485.49.21Rob Gronkowski6'5251
2.43Jahlani TavaiLB5676.84.14Vontaze Burfict6'2250
3.81Will HarrisS1317983.19.64T.J. Ward6'1207
4.117Austin BryantED21168n/an/aStephen Weatherly6'4271
5.146Amani OruwariyeCB1410954.98.53Pierre Desir6'2205
6.184Travis FulghamWR2823271.58.01Mohamed Massoquoi6'2215
6.186Ty JohnsonRB2829861.58.63Jeremy Ross5'11210
7.224Isaac NautaTE173204.51.58Rany McMichael6'3244
7.229P.J. JohnsonDL434701.00.87Lowell Lotulei6'3321
PFABeau BenzschawelOG1115014.36.58Rob Havenstein6'6309
PFAMalik CarneyED2222012.95.03Shaquille Barrett6'2251
PFADonald ParhamTE1528849.76.85Ricky Seals-Jones6'8240
PFARyan PopeOT2730048.08.2Orlando Franklin6'7320
PFATre LamarLB283097.43.81Josh Perry6'3253
PFABrandon FanaikaOG4043717.34.37Avery Genessy6'2318


TJ Hockenson was my favorite prospect in the draft and the model gave Detroit due credit for getting what I consider to be a top-five overall prospect at 1.8. The rest of the draft was forgettable. Tavai had better turn into a good starter or Detroit may not have much to show for the class outside of Hockenson -- who, to be fair, is a generational talent.


26. Tampa Bay Bucs | Draft: 26, UDFA: 10 | 2019 HAUL grade: D+

1.5Devin WhiteLB1893.39.33Myles Jack6'0237
2.39Sean BuntingCB108794.79.65Eli Apple6'0195
3.94Jamel DeanCB118897.69.93Kevin King6'1206
3.99Mike EdwardsS1217449.37.48Rashad Johnson5'10205
4.107Anthony NelsonED95978.69.49Carl Nassib6'7271
5.145Matt GayK1249n/an/aChris Boswell6'0232
6.208Scott MillerWR4338258.67.75Braxton Berrios5'9174
7.215Terry Beckner Jr.DL262611.32.19Tanzel Smart6'4296
PFAAnthony JohnsonWR1711628.07.05Michael Gallup6'2209
PFABruce AndersonRB2226012.55.88Kenneth Dixon5'11210
PFAZack BaileyOG2427820.97.17Kyle Murphy6'5299
PFALukas DenisS2128616.13.34Gerod Holliman5'11190
PFADaMarkus LodgeWR413637.83.63Roger Lewis6'2202
PFAIsaiah SearightHB742447.17.33MyCole Pruitt6'3242
PFANate TrewynOC1844813.54.8Coleman Shelton6'3313
PFABrock RubleOT404523.31.7Conor McDermott6'7319
PFANick FitzgeraldQB2346350.07.59Matt Jones6'5226


The Bucs got their guy at 1.5 in Devin White, and I thought they stole Anthony Nelson in Round 4. Tampa also signed one of this year’s top UDFAs in Buffalo WR Anthony Johnson. The rest of the effort left a lot to be desired.


27. Atlanta Falcons | Draft: 27, UDFA: 23 | 2019 HAUL grade: D

1.14Chris LindstromOG12696.69.83Joel Bitonio6'4308
1.31Kaleb McGaryOT64884.29.83Cam Robinson6'7317
4.111Kendall SheffieldCB19147n/a9.74Corn Elder5'11193
4.135John CominskyDL1919281.99.42Margus Hunt6'5286
5.152Qadree OllisonRB2935211.34.51James Conner6'1228
5.172Jordan MillerCB2720822.45.21Ken Crawley6'1186
6.203Marcus GreenWRXUR53.57.3 5'8190
PFAOlamide ZaccheausWR2419146.86.2Shelton Gibson5'8188
PFADevon JohnsonOT2628910.62.12King Dunlap6'7338
PFALanard BonnerOG424665.61.35Sam Jones6'5315
PFATony Brooks-JamesRB4348158.47.25Shaun Wilson5'9190
PFAJaelin RobinsonOT4448730.85.49Ike Boettger6'6305


Forgettable draft process for the Falcons. The first two picks were understandable but reaches nonetheless, and the over-drafts got more egregious from there.


28. Seattle Seahawks | Draft: 30, UDFA: 4 | 2019 HAUL grade: D

1.29L.J. CollierED131019.33.25Robert Geathers6'2283
2.47Marquise BlairS1113047.58.29Maddieu Williams6'1195
2.64D.K. MetcalfWR53599.09.66David Boston6'3228
3.88Cody BartonLB2421667.69.3Christian Sam6'2237
4.120Gary JenningsWR1913882.69.04Amara Darboh6'1214
4.124Phil HaynesOG711279.09.24Laken Tomlinson6'4322
4.132Ugochukwu AmadiS1622316.94.66Omar Bolden5'9199
5.142Ben Burr-KirvenLB910084.68.95Ben Heeney6'0230
6.204Travis HomerRB2126679.48.37Ameer Abdullah5'10201
6.209DeMarcus ChristmasDL273027.93.32Angelo Blackson6'3294
7.236John UrsuaWR5647945.16.47John Brown5'9178
PFADerrek ThomasCB2217183.68.6Stanley Jean-Baptise6'3189
PFAMartez IveyOG172332.50.6Roderick Johnson6'5315
PFAB.J. AutryOG20245n/an/aMax Jean-Gilies6'3337
PFADavante DavisCB31247.068.98.4Brian Allen6'2202
PFAWinston DimelHB327924.84.7Andy Janovich6'0233
PFANyqwan MurrayWR464082.81.0Davone Bess5'10191
PFATaryn ChristionQB2244579.88.0Jeff Driskel6'2218
PFAJazz FergusonWR5446566.57.3Raw Funchess6'5227
PFAJay-Tee TiuliDL4548923.55.4Kendrick Norton6'3318


L.J. Collier was one of the biggest reaches of the draft. Marquise Blair was also a puzzling reach at 2.47 considering the other quality safeties that would remain on the board for two more rounds. D.K. Metcalf and Ben Burr-Kirven helped to keep Seattle out of the 30s in these rankings.


29. Indianapolis Colts | Draft: 29, UDFA: 21 | 2019 HAUL grade: D-

2.34Rock Ya-SinCB74958.56.18Marlin Jackson6'0192
2.49Ben BanoguED1612297.19.71Shilique Calhouhn6'3250
2.59Parris CampbellWR107699.39.77Big Curtis Samuel6'0205
3.89Bobby OkerekeLB1114664.88.40Jatavis Brown6'1239
4.109Khari WillisS1419027.66.4Jeremy Reaves5'11213
5.144Marvell Tell IIIS1012499.49.26Joshua Kalu6'2198
5.164EJ SpeedLBXUR55.59.2 6'4224
6.199Gerri GreenED3031846.68.08Devon Kennard6'4252
7.240Jackson BartonOT2125331.98.32Emmett Cleary6'7310
7.246Javon PattersonOC822820.37.22Joe Looney6'3307
PFAJamal PetersCB302415.51.73Keith McGill6'2218
PFAPenny HartWR292460.21.23Richie James5'8180
PFAAshton DulinWR3832479.9n/aMiles Austin6'1215
PFAJordan ThompsonDL29330n/an/aJordan Carrell6'3292
PFADamian PrinceOG353812.91.46Jon Toth6'5306


I thought the Colts reached throughout the draft. Indy didn’t do much when it closed, either. But I will say: I love the idea of moving Banogu to off-ball linebacker. I ranked him as an off-ball LB in my first draft because I thought his game might sneakily suit better for those duties, but ended up chickening out and listing him as an EDGE. I think Banogu's game will play up when he's given the latitude to run sideline-to-sideline with abandon and weaponize his athleticism in coverage.  


30. San Francisco 49ers | Draft: 28 UDFA: 31 | 2019 HAUL grade: D-

1.2Nick BosaED2574.89.43Joey Bosa6'4266
2.36Deebo SamuelWR65276.37.92Christian Kirk5'11214
3.68Jalen HurdWR86575.98.21Terrelle Pryor6'5226
4.110Mitch WishnowskyP1252n/a10Richy Leone6'2218
5.148Dre GreenlawLB4241416.45.0Kevin Pierre-Louis5'11237
6.176Kaden SmithTE1221211.13.86Durham Smythe6'5255
6.183Justin SkuleOT2427328.77.18Greg Senat6'6315
6.198Tim HarrisCB3226592.08.91Dontae Johnson6'2200
PFAKevin GivensDL3740032.37.52Sheldon Day6'1285
PFAAzeez Al-ShaairLB48459n/an/aElijah Lee6'0234
PFAJamell Garcia-WilliamsED43478n/an/aDarius English6'7255
PFARoss ReynoldsOG4348293.09.47Patrick Morris6'4295


I loved the Jalen Hurd pick and was fine with Bosa at 1.2, even though I would have preferred Josh Allen, I didn’t really understand what San Francisco was doing outside of those two picks, though.


31. Dallas Cowboys | Draft: 31, UDFA: 9 | 2019 HAUL grade: F

2.58Trysten HillDL109281.78.99Brandon Dunn6'3308
3.90Connor McGovernOC6151n/a9.8Roger Saffold6'5308
4.128Tony PollardRB2527272.27.24Theo Riddick6'0210
5.158Michael JacksonCB1512090.78.8Siran Neal6'1210
5.165Joe JacksonED181312.32.51Za'Darius Smith6'4275
6.213Donovan WilsonS29428n/a7.0Corey Moore6'0199
7.218Mike WeberRB2427130.77.1Tashard Choice5'10211
7.24Jalen JelksED252309.04.85Erik Walden6'5256
PFAMitch HyattOG1014521.16.24Ty Sambrailo6'5303
PFADaniel WiseDL1516922.24.51Tom Johnson6'3281
PFARicky WalkerDL24236n/a4.99Darius Kilgo6'2304
PFABrandon KnightOG33360n/an/aColby Gossett6'4314
PFADerrick PuniOG3639556.3n/aNico Siragusa6'5326.0
PFAJon'Vea JohnsonWR5245580.18.77J.J. Nelson5'11188
PFANate HallLB4946735.46.74Skai Moore6'2225
PFAChris WestryCB4647179.79.57Tarvarus McFadden6'4199


Dallas got credit for nice value picks on the Miami defenders in Round 5 and for signing a nice crop of UDFAs. But the rest of the draft was rough, featuring a procession of objective over-drafts.


32. Oakland Raiders | Draft: 32, UDFA: 5 | 2019 HAUL grade: F

1.4Clelin FerrellED519n/an/aDerrick Morgan6'4264
1.24Joshua JacobsRB25318.95.76Off-brand Kamara5'10220
1.27Johnathan AbramS88536.37.01Keanu Neal5'11205
2.40Trayvon MullenCB1210248.37.48Kevin Johnson6'1199
4.106Maxx CrosbyED119188.79.64Jeremiah Attaochu6'5255
4.129Isaiah JohnsonCB1310794.99.74Rasul Douglas6'2208
4.137Foster MoreauTE712784.79.48Joel Dreesen6'4253
5.149Hunter RenfrowWR1813510.32.94Jeremy Kerley5'10184
7.230Quinton BellED45493n/a9.88Jeff Holland6'3238
PFATyler RoemerOT1615252.58.07Tom Compton6'3312
PFATeVon ConeyLB141755.42.56Craig Robertson6'0234
PFAKeelan DossWR2520550.77.73Cedrick Wilson6'2211
PFAAlec IngoldHB225030.44.15Derek Watt6'1242
PFAAndre JamesOG2326823.54.02Markus Zusevics6'4299
PFALester CottonOG2731012.63.99Damien Mama6'4336
PFAKeisean NixonCB484837.24.05Marcus Sherels5'10196
PFALukayus McNeilOT4348575.48.7Matt Gono6'5310


I can’t describe my feelings about what the Raiders any better than I did in my grades column. And since my cold analytical model came to the same conclusion as my lyin eyes, let's just re-run that assessment raw and unedited...

I actually loved what the Raiders did on Day 3, but I refuse to bump them up to a D- for the small-potatoes stuff. Thursday night, Mike Mayock’s first day in charge of the draft, was one of the most breathtaking squanderings of draft capital that we’ve even seen on Day 1 of the draft. Mayock took a mid-first rounder at 1.4, a second-round passing-down back with 18th-percentile athleticism at 1.24*, and an athletically-limited one-trick-pony enforcer SS with 36th-percentile athleticism at 1.27 who I predict will be outperformed by more than one safety who went on Day 3.

*(laughably, this news was leaked months in advance, probably because Mayock had loose lips about his Jacobs affinity with his NFL.com friends, who helped stoke Jacobs' out-of-control buzz by mocking Jacobs in the top-five after the national title game — and yet no team bothered to hop Oakland for Jacobs, all the indication you need that Mayock and Jon Gruden were on an island with regards to Jacobs' value range).

These weren’t even Las Vegas-esque high-upside gambles. Where's the upside here? Can you envision Ferrell becoming one of the class’ top-three players 20 years down the line? Can you envision Jacobs and Abram becoming top-25 players in this class? How? At their respective positions with their respective games in the modern NFL, each would have to become superstars to qualify.

Jacobs would have to become an every-down stud (something he's never been) and Abram would have to become at least "objectively good" in coverage (something he's never been), and both will have to get there without upper-tier athleticism. Those are two new cars whose value dropped by half as they were driven off the lot.

Thor Nystrom

Thor Nystrom is NBC Sports Edge’s lead CFB writer. The 2018 FSWA College Sports Writer of the Year, Nystrom’s writing has also been honored by Rolling Stone magazine and The Best American Essays series. Say hi to him on Twitter @thorku!