The Famers Insurance Open will be played at Torrey Pines this week in La Jolla, California.
The event uses the North Course and the South Course over the first 36 holes before all of the cut-makers get two more looks at the South Course over the weekend.
When we look for course-fit angles, we notice instantly that we are looking for a direct opposite fit compared to last week. When we searched at PGA WEST we were looking for golfers that played well on short and easy tracks. This week, we want golfers that play best on long and tough golf courses.
The North Course at Torrey Pines is easy but golfers will get just one look at it this week.
The remaining 54 holes will be played on a brute of a golf course, the South Course at Torrey Pines. This course yields bogeys or worse on more than 21% of the holes which is the highest rate of any non-major venue that is played on TOUR.
Let's see who has performed best on hard courses, over the last two years:
We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs their expectations. Here is that list:
Hughes seems to keep his name in the mix on tough courses with elite short game but the others do it mostly from tee-to-green.
We just talked about golfers seeing the South Course three times this week.
That course stretches out past 7,700 yards while playing at a coastal climate. The don't doesn't fly very far here. This course plays LONG!
Here are the top performers on long courses, over the last two years:
We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Not a surprising group to find on the overlap list. They can all poke it out there off the tee which is going to help on a lengthy layout.
Matthew Wolff ($10,500): When you look for golfers that fit the mold at Torrey Pines, Wolff will probably be one of the first that comes to mind. He mashes it off the tee and plays better when courses are tough. Just look at his major-championship performance early in his career.
Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900): We haven't seen him since the fall so that is the risky part of this pick. Then you add in his history of WDs due to neck and back issues, and the expected ownership gets even lower this week. The South African finished T41 in his only previous appearance at the Farmers. He's a high-upside pick any time he pegs which makes him attractive for Guaranteed Prize Pool contests.
Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis.