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FanDuel Strategy

FanDuel Fit: Farmers Insurance Open

by Josh Culp
Updated On: February 2, 2021, 12:36 pm ET

The Famers Insurance Open will be played at Torrey Pines this week in La Jolla, California. 

The event uses the North Course and the South Course over the first 36 holes before all of the cut-makers get two more looks at the South Course over the weekend. 

When we look for course-fit angles, we notice instantly that we are looking for a direct opposite fit compared to last week. When we searched at PGA WEST we were looking for golfers that played well on short and easy tracks. This week, we want golfers that play best on long and tough golf courses. 

Hard Courses

The North Course at Torrey Pines is easy but golfers will get just one look at it this week. 

The remaining 54 holes will be played on a brute of a golf course, the South Course at Torrey Pines. This course yields bogeys or worse on more than 21% of the holes which is the highest rate of any non-major venue that is played on TOUR. 

Let's see who has performed best on hard courses, over the last two years: 

Jon Rahm
Rory McIlroy
Brooks Koepka
Tony Finau
Matthew Wolff
Xander Schauffele
Hideki Matsuyama
Jason Day
Harris English
Louis Oosthuizen
Scottie Scheffler
Mackenzie Hughes
Francesco Molinari
Rickie Fowler
Gary Woodland

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs their expectations. Here is that list: 

Mackenzie Hughes
Nick Watney
Matthew Wolff
Charley Hoffman
Francesco Molinari
Patrick Rodgers
Keith Mitchell
Tony Finau
Harris English
Dylan Frittelli
Luke List
Scottie Scheffler
Kramer Hickok
Ryan Palmer
Scott Brown

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Mackenzie Hughes, Matthew Wolff, Tony Finau, Harris English, and Scottie Scheffler

Hughes seems to keep his name in the mix on tough courses with elite short game but the others do it mostly from tee-to-green. 

 

Long Courses

We just talked about golfers seeing the South Course three times this week. 

That course stretches out past 7,700 yards while playing at a coastal climate. The don't doesn't fly very far here. This course plays LONG! 

Here are the top performers on long courses, over the last two years: 

Jon Rahm
Rory McIlroy
Hideki Matsuyama
Adam Scott
Louis Oosthuizen
Matthew Wolff
Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Tony Finau
Jason Kokrak
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Viktor Hovland
Patrick Reed
Lanto Griffin

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list: 

Michael Gellerman
Matthew Wolff
Robert Streb
Jim Knous
Kevin Tway
Scott Brown
Alex Noren
Louis Oosthuizen
Lanto Griffin
Talor Gooch
Hideki Matsuyama
John Senden
Satoshi Kodaira
Robby Shelton
Corey Conners

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Matthew Wolff, Louis Oosthuizen, Lanto Griffin, Hideki Matsuyama, and Corey Conners

Not a surprising group to find on the overlap list. They can all poke it out there off the tee which is going to help on a lengthy layout. 

FanDuel Focus 

Matthew Wolff ($10,500): When you look for golfers that fit the mold at Torrey Pines, Wolff will probably be one of the first that comes to mind. He mashes it off the tee and plays better when courses are tough. Just look at his major-championship performance early in his career. 

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900): We haven't seen him since the fall so that is the risky part of this pick. Then you add in his history of WDs due to neck and back issues, and the expected ownership gets even lower this week. The South African finished T41 in his only previous appearance at the Farmers. He's a high-upside pick any time he pegs which makes him attractive for Guaranteed Prize Pool contests. 

 

Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis. 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.