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FanDuel Strategy

FanDuel Fit: The Genesis Invitational

by Josh Culp
Updated On: February 16, 2021, 5:56 pm ET

A star-studded field heads to the Los Angeles area for this week's Genesis Invitational. It's Tiger's event. Of course, he'll just be floating around and not actually playing this week, as he recovers from his most recent back procedure. 

For DFS purposes, a relatively small field (120 golfers) means a greater chance at sneaking 6-of-6 golfers through the cutline. That's the name of the game when it comes to long-term success in weekly formats. 

That relatively high cut-made percentage will allow us to take on a bit more risk when selecting our bottom two or three golfers. The 78th-best golfer in a 156-man field might be a 50/50 proposition to earn a paycheck but this week at that 78th-best golfer would have a 65 percent chance of playing all four rounds. Those numbers add up fast but it's still no easy task. 

To help pluck some value, let's have a look at some stats that show up who performs well on the West Coast, while dealing with poa annua greens. 

Performance on Poa Annua Greens

Another week in California means another week on poa annua greens. 

"So I think there’s something to that, something to being used to poa annua and growing up on golf courses that are kikuyu grass because I think it might be the only one we play all year with kikuyu grass." -Patrick Cantlay

"poa seems like if it’s just not the right consistency of water versus firmness and everything, they get very bumpy and this is where we start struggling." -Adam Scott

"In the morning, they are perfect. They are smooth and fast. In the afternoon, you obviously get a few footprints, especially with the rain we had Wednesday. When they are soft, they do get pretty bumpy." -Marc Leishman

Let's see who has performed best on courses with poa annua greens, over the last two years: 

Rory McIlroy
Bryson DeChambeau
Dustin Johnson
Xander Schauffele
Adam Scott
Jon Rahm
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Justin Thomas
Will Zalatoris
Hideki Matsuyama
Kevin Streelman
Matt Kuchar
Gary Woodland
Brooks Koepka

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs their expectations. Here is that list: 

Nick Taylor
Rory McIlroy
J.B. Holmes
Bryson DeChambeau
Kevin Streelman
Doc Redman
Chez Reavie
Luke List
Maverick McNealy
Marc Leishman
Nate Lashley
Brian Stuard
Vaughn Taylor
Gary Woodland
Matt Kuchar

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Kevin Streelman, Gary Woodland, and Matt Kuchar

There is a clear theme of elite ball-strikers showing up on these lists which makes sense when you consider poa annua often adds more volatility to short and mid-range putts. 

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Performance out West

There is a comfort factor for many in the field when they play closer to home. 

"I’m obviously back in California, I have some family members here, so I’m very comfortable." -Cameron Champ

"I love California, it’s where I grew up, I feel very comfortable here. UCLA’s just down the road so I know where to eat. And when everyone’s saying it took them an hour and a half to get back to Beverly Hills yesterday afternoon, I say that’s normal." -Patrick Cantlay

Here are the top performers in the Western Region of the United States, over the last two years: 

Xander Schauffele
Jon Rahm
Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay
Rory McIlroy
Tony Finau
Dustin Johnson
Bryson DeChambeau
Adam Scott
Collin Morikawa
Joaquin Niemann
Russell Henley
Marc Leishman
Viktor Hovland
Brooks Koepka

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list: 

Marc Leishman
J.B. Holmes
Tony Finau
Luke List
Cameron Davis
Joaquin Niemann
Russell Henley
Matthew NeSmith
Tom Hoge
Xander Schauffele
Cameron Champ
Russell Knox
Bryson DeChambeau
Bubba Watson
Max Homa

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Marc Leishman, Tony Finau, Joaquin Niemann, Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau

Finau, Schauffele, and DeChambeau all grew up on the West Coast while Leishman has said the West Coast conditions at some of these events remind him of playing back home in Australia. 

FanDuel Focus 

Xander Schafuffele ($11,500): Is anyone going to click his name this week when they could just pay $600 more and grab World No. 1 Dustin Johnson instead? Of course Schauffele will get some clicks but he will likely come get overshadowed by the other superstars that surround him at the top. What's appealing about him this week? First, he's a California native so comfortable out West. Second, he's landing top 25s in all three appearances at this event (T9, T15, T23). Lastly, he arrives with top 25s in 15 straight events. 

Russell Henley ($9,500): He's been one of the most consistent ball-striker on TOUR for the last year now. That is always a positive. What about his history at Riviera CC? He's settled for finishes outside of the top 40 in four of his five visits but finally snapped that streak with a T17 last year. He's landed more greens per round compared for the field in four of his five trips and he's gained strokes putting in three of his five visits. That combination should lead to better results than what we see on his overall Riviera resume. A possible value play to consider this week. 

 

Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis. 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.