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Fantasy Forecast

Fantasy Football Forecast - Divisional Round

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: January 12, 2020, 1:47 am ET

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, and by that, I mean with a lot of charts instead of words. The first part of the column includes league-wide charts to visualize trends in matchups, and then I take a team-by-team approach to preview matchups. As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions. 

 

Matchup Charts

PaceDivision

 

Friendly Fantasy Offenses: Chiefs, Ravens

Unfriendly Fantasy Offenses: Titans, Vikings, Seahawks, Texans 

 

 


PressureDivision

 

Minimal Pressure: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers

Lots of Pressure: Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo

Recommended Defenses: Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers

 


PPRAllowedDivision

 

Good “Deep” Matchups: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Marquise Brown, Tyreek Hill

Good “Underneath” Matchups: All Chiefs really, Davante Adams, Mark Andrews

Bad “Deep” Matchups: Stefon Diggs (but Diggs was the best deep threat in 2019), Will Fuller

Bad “Underneath” Matchups: Tyler Lockett, A.J. Brown, Adam Thielen

 


PPRSlotDivision

 

Good Slot Matchups: Willie Snead/Marquise Brown, Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins

Bad Slot Matchups: Bisi Johnson, Geronimo Allison, Tajae Sharpe, Kendrick Bourne

 


RBAllowedDivision

 

Good RB Matchups: Damien Williams, Aaron Jones, Mark Ingram, Travis Homer, Carlos Hyde

Bad RB Matchups: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry

 


Team-by-Team Previews

Chiefs (30.5 projected points, -10 spread) vs. HOU

KCHOU

Passing: The Chiefs passing offense is easily the best on the slate. Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill should be close to 100% now, and the Texans’ defense is arguably the worst of the remaining teams. Mahomes has the best adjusted sack rate matchup, and Houston has given up the most PPR points through the air and second-most PPR points in slot coverage. Mahomes is in Lamar Jackson’s tier, and Tyreek/Travis Kelce are the top overall players at their positions. Even Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman are in play as DFS fliers. 

Rushing: Damien Williams has had 18.2 and 31.4 PPR points on 17 and 16 touches in the Chiefs last two games with LeSean McCoy standing on the sideline. It’s Williams' backfield right now, and it’s one of the best ones in the league to have. Williams has a 15-22 touch projection with goal-line work on a team expected to run the most plays and score the most points of the week. Oh, and the Texans have allowed the most receiving production to RBs on the slate. The only concern (and it’s a small one) is that Shady re-enters the mix now that it’s playoff time.

Forecast: Patrick Mahomes elite QB1, Tyreek Hill elite WR1, Sammy Watkins boom-or-bust WR4, Demarcus Robinson boom-or-bust WR5, Mecole Hardman boom-or-bust WR4, Travis Kelce elite TE1, Damien Williams upside RB1, LeSean McCoy RB4

 

Ravens (28.25 projected points, -10 spread) vs. TEN

BALTEN

Passing: Lamar Jackson has a rock-solid home matchup and is coming off two weeks of rest. LJ is the QB1 overall, not just because he will run for 50-150 yards, but also because of the Ravens’ No. 1 passing DVOA offense. The Titans have allowed the second most PPR points through the air (2nd-worst on “deep targets” and 3rd-worst on “underneath targets”), giving Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown decent shots at ceiling games. Willie Snead also has a plus matchup with Tennessee allowing the most PPR points in slot coverage of the remaining teams. 

Rushing: Everyone knows what Lamar Jackson is capable of doing on the ground, but the real discussion is with Mark Ingram (calf). He was limited on Thursday and will likely be a game-time decision. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport made it seem like he’ll push playing. Ingram will be the clear-cut starter if that’s the case, although a soft-tissue injury worries me for re-aggravation purposes. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill will clean up behind him and would likely split touches if Ingram is out. The Titans have allowed 12.2 PPR points on receiving plays to RBs this season, the third most of the remaining teams. Everyone has a decent matchup here.

Forecast: Lamar Jackson elite QB1, Marquise Brown upside WR3, Willie Snead WR5, Mark Andrews TE1, Hayden Hurst TE2, Mark Ingram (questionable) boom-or-bust RB2, Gus Edwards boom-or-bust RB3, Justice Hill boom-or-bust RB4