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Fantasy Usage Model

Expected PPR Points: A 2020 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: December 30, 2020, 1:50 pm ET

"The Fantasy Usage Model" was a new project at Rotoworld this season that converted targets, air yards, carries, red zone touches, and other variables into one number -- Expected PPR Points. This metric is how many fantasy points the average player in the average offense would score with that opportunity. I hate to brag, but it did very well in 2020. My expected PPR points model predicted future PPR points far better than actual PPR points did at every position. Because it did well, I figured it's worth recapping the entire 2020 season.

Like always, I'm definitely on team "per game numbers" rather than "total numbers" when looking back at previous seasons. Some players miss time due to random events, and I don't want to knock them down rankings just because they didn't play all 16 games. To take that theory up a notch, I removed Week 17, games when players left early, and games played with Kendall Hinton at quarterback. This is as close as how each player actually did in normal circumstances, so I'll be referencing this page often for my 2021 offseason research. I hope you do as well. 


PPR Points Over Expected Per Game - WRs

To qualify, a receiver had to play in six healthy games and average at least 5.0 expected PPR points per game. There were 105 qualifiers.

Player PPR Expected PPR PPR Over Expected
GB Davante Adams 28.1 (WR1) 21.4 (WR1) +6.7 (WR1)
KC Tyreek Hill 21.9 (WR2) 16.3 (WR8) +5.6 (WR3)
ATL Julio Jones 21.4 (WR3) 16.6 (WR7) +4.8 (WR4)
BUF Stefon Diggs 20.9 (WR4) 17.7 (WR5) +3.3 (WR10)
ATL Calvin Ridley 20.1 (WR5) 17.8 (WR4) +2.3 (WR15)
LAC Keenan Allen 19.5 (WR6) 19.2 (WR2) +0.3 (WR63)
ARI DeAndre Hopkins 19.0 (WR7) 16.3 (WR9) +2.7 (WR12)
HOU Will Fuller 18.9 (WR8) 12.8 (WR27) +6.1 (WR2)
SEA DK Metcalf 17.9 (WR9) 14.2 (WR13) +3.7 (WR9)
PIT Diontae Johnson 17.5 (WR10) 18.1 (WR3) -0.6 (WR85)
MIN Adam Thielen 17.3 (WR11) 13.6 (WR19) +3.8 (WR6)
CHI Allen Robinson 17.1 (WR12) 16.7 (WR6) +0.4 (WR55)
TEN A.J. Brown 16.8 (WR13) 12.4 (WR34) +4.4 (WR5)
MIN Justin Jefferson 16.5 (WR14) 12.8 (WR28) +3.8 (WR7)
TB Mike Evans 16.1 (WR15) 13.2 (WR23) +2.9 (WR11)
LA Robert Woods 16.0 (WR16) 14.0 (WR15) +1.9 (WR19)
SEA Tyler Lockett 15.5 (WR17) 13.4 (WR21) +2.1 (WR17)
SF Brandon Aiyuk 15.2 (WR18) 14.9 (WR11) +0.3 (WR64)
DAL Amari Cooper 15.0 (WR19) 13.7 (WR18) +1.4 (WR28)
WAS Terry McLaurin 14.9 (WR20) 15.1 (WR10) -0.2 (WR75)
TB Chris Godwin 14.6 (WR21) 12.2 (WR38) +2.4 (WR13)
CIN Tyler Boyd 14.6 (WR22) 14.6 (WR12) +0.0 (WR68)
CAR Robby Anderson 14.5 (WR23) 14.1 (WR14) +0.3 (WR61)
NYJ Jamison Crowder 14.5 (WR24) 12.5 (WR30) +2.0 (WR18)
PIT JuJu Smith-Schuster 14.4 (WR25) 13.4 (WR22) +1.0 (WR39)
CLE Odell Beckham 14.4 (WR26) 13.7 (WR17) +0.7 (WR45)
TEN Corey Davis 14.2 (WR27) 10.5 (WR53) +3.7 (WR8)
CIN Tee Higgins 14.0 (WR28) 13.1 (WR24) +1.0 (WR40)
CAR D.J. Moore 14.0 (WR29) 13.0 (WR25) +1.0 (WR41)
LA Cooper Kupp 14.0 (WR30) 13.5 (WR20) +0.4 (WR56)
CAR Curtis Samuel 13.8 (WR31) 12.5 (WR32) +1.4 (WR30)
HOU Brandin Cooks 13.7 (WR32) 12.3 (WR36) +1.4 (WR26)
DAL CeeDee Lamb 13.5 (WR33) 12.1 (WR39) +1.3 (WR32)
BUF Cole Beasley 13.4 (WR34) 11.8 (WR44) +1.6 (WR23)
PIT Chase Claypool 13.0 (WR35) 12.3 (WR35) +0.7 (WR43)
DET Marvin Jones 12.7 (WR36) 12.1 (WR41) +0.6 (WR46)
MIA DeVante Parker 12.3 (WR37) 13.0 (WR26) -0.7 (WR88)
NYG Sterling Shepard 12.2 (WR38) 12.8 (WR29) -0.5 (WR83)
NO Michael Thomas 12.0 (WR39) 14.0 (WR16) -2.0 (WR100)
LV Nelson Agholor 11.9 (WR40) 9.7 (WR58) +2.3 (WR16)
DEN Tim Patrick 11.9 (WR41) 10.0 (WR56) +1.9 (WR20)
JAX D.J. Chark 11.8 (WR42) 12.5 (WR31) -0.7 (WR87)
CLE Jarvis Landry 11.8 (WR43) 12.1 (WR40) -0.3 (WR79)
TB Antonio Brown 11.5 (WR44) 11.0 (WR49) +0.5 (WR50)
BUF John Brown 11.4 (WR45) 11.5 (WR47) -0.1 (WR73)
IND T.Y. Hilton 11.4 (WR46) 10.8 (WR50) +0.5 (WR49)
LAC Mike Williams 11.1 (WR47) 12.2 (WR37) -1.1 (WR91)
JAX Laviska Shenault 11.1 (WR48) 10.0 (WR55) +1.0 (WR38)
NO Emmanuel Sanders 11.0 (WR49) 9.7 (WR57) +1.4 (WR29)
DAL Michael Gallup 11.0 (WR50) 11.5 (WR46) -0.5 (WR81)
BAL Marquise Brown 10.8 (WR51) 10.7 (WR52) +0.1 (WR67)
ARI Christian Kirk 10.5 (WR52) 10.3 (WR54) +0.1 (WR66)
GB Allen Lazard 10.5 (WR53) 8.1 (WR78) +2.4 (WR14)
ATL Russell Gage 10.4 (WR54) 11.9 (WR43) -1.5 (WR97)
HOU Randall Cobb 10.2 (WR55) 9.1 (WR65) +1.1 (WR37)
KC Sammy Watkins 9.7 (WR56) 11.3 (WR48) -1.6 (WR98)
TEN Adam Humphries 9.6 (WR57) 9.2 (WR63) +0.4 (WR58)
JAX Keelan Cole 9.6 (WR58) 9.2 (WR64) +0.4 (WR59)
NYG Darius Slayton 9.5 (WR59) 10.8 (WR51) -1.3 (WR94)
PHI Travis Fulgham 9.5 (WR60) 9.4 (WR61) +0.0 (WR69)
DEN Jerry Jeudy 9.3 (WR61) 12.4 (WR33) -3.1 (WR103)
NE Jakobi Meyers 9.3 (WR62) 9.5 (WR60) -0.2 (WR76)
NE Julian Edelman 9.1 (WR63) 11.6 (WR45) -2.5 (WR102)
LV Hunter Renfrow 9.1 (WR64) 8.0 (WR79) +1.1 (WR36)
MIA Preston Williams 8.9 (WR65) 8.4 (WR75) +0.5 (WR53)
IND Zach Pascal 8.7 (WR66) 8.5 (WR73) +0.2 (WR65)
IND Michael Pittman 8.7 (WR67) 9.4 (WR62) -0.7 (WR89)
CHI Darnell Mooney 8.7 (WR68) 9.6 (WR59) -1.0 (WR90)
PHI Greg Ward 8.6 (WR69) 8.2 (WR77) +0.4 (WR57)
NYJ Breshad Perriman 8.5 (WR70) 8.6 (WR72) -0.1 (WR74)
SF Richie James 8.4 (WR71) 7.0 (WR85) +1.4 (WR27)
DEN KJ Hamler 8.3 (WR72) 8.7 (WR70) -0.4 (WR80)
SF Kendrick Bourne 8.2 (WR73) 7.9 (WR80) +0.3 (WR62)
GB Marquez Valdes-Scantling 8.1 (WR74) 6.8 (WR86) +1.3 (WR33)
CLE Rashard Higgins 8.1 (WR75) 6.3 (WR93) +1.8 (WR22)
LA Josh Reynolds 8.1 (WR76) 8.6 (WR71) -0.5 (WR82)
DET Danny Amendola 8.1 (WR77) 8.4 (WR76) -0.3 (WR78)
KC Mecole Hardman 8.0 (WR78) 6.5 (WR90) +1.5 (WR25)
CIN A.J. Green 8.0 (WR79) 11.9 (WR42) -4.0 (WR105)
SEA David Moore 7.9 (WR80) 6.0 (WR96) +1.8 (WR21)
BUF Gabriel Davis 7.9 (WR81) 7.4 (WR82) +0.5 (WR52)
PHI Jalen Reagor 7.8 (WR82) 9.1 (WR66) -1.3 (WR95)
ARI Larry Fitzgerald 7.8 (WR83) 8.9 (WR68) -1.2 (WR93)
CHI Anthony Miller 7.7 (WR84) 8.9 (WR69) -1.2 (WR92)
NE Damiere Byrd 7.6 (WR85) 7.7 (WR81) -0.1 (WR72)
NYJ Braxton Berrios 7.6 (WR86) 7.1 (WR84) +0.5 (WR51)
NO Tre'Quan Smith 7.4 (WR87) 6.1 (WR95) +1.3 (WR34)
NYG Golden Tate 7.3 (WR88) 7.3 (WR83) +0.0 (WR70)
LV Henry Ruggs 7.3 (WR89) 5.9 (WR97) +1.3 (WR31)
BAL Willie Snead 7.2 (WR90) 6.7 (WR88) +0.5 (WR48)
NYJ Denzel Mims 7.0 (WR91) 9.0 (WR67) -1.9 (WR99)
WAS Cam Sims 7.0 (WR92) 6.6 (WR89) +0.3 (WR60)
HOU Keke Coutee 6.9 (WR93) 5.4 (WR103) +1.5 (WR24)
TB Scotty Miller 6.7 (WR94) 5.5 (WR101) +1.2 (WR35)
PIT James Washington 6.6 (WR95) 6.2 (WR94) +0.4 (WR54)
KC Demarcus Robinson 6.5 (WR96) 5.8 (WR99) +0.7 (WR44)
LAC Jalen Guyton 6.5 (WR97) 5.7 (WR100) +0.8 (WR42)
NE N'Keal Harry 6.0 (WR98) 8.4 (WR74) -2.4 (WR101)
JAX Chris Conley 6.0 (WR99) 6.5 (WR91) -0.5 (WR84)
MIA Jakeem Grant 5.8 (WR100) 6.4 (WR92) -0.6 (WR86)
NO Deonte Harris 5.5 (WR101) 5.0 (WR105) +0.6 (WR47)
NE Isaiah Ford 5.4 (WR102) 6.8 (WR87) -1.4 (WR96)
WAS Steven Sims 5.3 (WR103) 5.2 (WR104) +0.0 (WR71)
DEN DaeSean Hamilton 5.0 (WR104) 5.4 (WR102) -0.3 (WR77)
SF Trent Taylor 2.3 (WR105) 5.9 (WR98) -3.5 (WR104)

 

The top 10 receivers in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

GB Davante Adams, HOU Will Fuller, KC Tyreek Hill, ATL Julio Jones, TEN A.J. Brown, MIN Adam Thielen, MIN Justin Jefferson, TEN Corey Davis, SEA DK Metcalf, and BUF Stefon Diggs.

 

The bottom 10 receivers in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

CIN A.J. Green, SF Trent Taylor, DEN Jerry Jeudy, NE Julian Edelman, NE N'Keal Harry, NO Michael Thomas, NYJ Denzel Mims, KC Sammy Watkins, ATL Russell Gage, and MIA Isaiah Ford.

 


PPR Points Over Expected Per Game - RBs

To qualify, a running back had to play in six healthy games and average at least 5.0 expected PPR points per game. There were 74 qualifiers.

Player PPR Expected PPR PPR Over Expected
NO Alvin Kamara 25.2 (RB1) 21.0 (RB1) +4.1 (RB2)
MIN Dalvin Cook 24.1 (RB2) 20.9 (RB2) +3.2 (RB3)
TEN Derrick Henry 19.9 (RB3) 17.5 (RB9) +2.3 (RB5)
CLE Nick Chubb 18.8 (RB4) 14.2 (RB22) +4.7 (RB1)
GB Aaron Jones 18.6 (RB5) 17.4 (RB10) +1.2 (RB9)
LAC Austin Ekeler 18.2 (RB6) 19.2 (RB4) -1.0 (RB49)
JAX James Robinson 17.9 (RB7) 16.5 (RB12) +1.4 (RB7)
SEA Chris Carson 17.2 (RB8) 14.7 (RB18) +2.6 (RB4)
CHI David Montgomery 16.9 (RB9) 17.8 (RB8) -0.9 (RB48)
CIN Joe Mixon 16.8 (RB10) 19.2 (RB6) -2.4 (RB66)
MIA Myles Gaskin 16.7 (RB11) 19.3 (RB3) -2.6 (RB69)
WAS Antonio Gibson 16.3 (RB12) 14.6 (RB19) +1.7 (RB6)
LV Josh Jacobs 15.9 (RB13) 19.1 (RB7) -3.2 (RB72)
HOU David Johnson 15.9 (RB14) 16.1 (RB15) -0.2 (RB26)
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 15.5 (RB15) 19.2 (RB5) -3.7 (RB73)
IND Jonathan Taylor 15.5 (RB16) 14.8 (RB17) +0.7 (RB15)
CAR Mike Davis 14.9 (RB17) 16.8 (RB11) -1.9 (RB63)
DET D'Andre Swift 14.8 (RB18) 13.6 (RB26) +1.2 (RB10)
PHI Miles Sanders 14.7 (RB19) 15.3 (RB16) -0.6 (RB38)
CLE Kareem Hunt 14.2 (RB20) 14.2 (RB21) +0.0 (RB21)
DEN Melvin Gordon 14.0 (RB21) 13.1 (RB28) +0.9 (RB13)
TB Ronald Jones 13.6 (RB22) 14.3 (RB20) -0.7 (RB40)
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 13.5 (RB23) 16.2 (RB14) -2.7 (RB70)
ARI Kenyan Drake 13.3 (RB24) 16.4 (RB13) -3.1 (RB71)
PIT James Conner 12.8 (RB25) 14.1 (RB23) -1.3 (RB53)
SF Raheem Mostert 12.7 (RB26) 11.8 (RB31) +0.9 (RB12)
WAS J.D. McKissic 12.4 (RB27) 14.1 (RB24) -1.7 (RB61)
SF Jeff Wilson 12.3 (RB28) 11.1 (RB35) +1.2 (RB8)
IND Nyheim Hines 12.0 (RB29) 12.4 (RB30) -0.4 (RB32)
ATL Todd Gurley 11.9 (RB30) 13.4 (RB27) -1.5 (RB58)
NE Rex Burkhead 11.6 (RB31) 10.5 (RB37) +1.1 (RB11)
TB Leonard Fournette 11.6 (RB32) 12.7 (RB29) -1.2 (RB51)
ARI Chase Edmonds 10.9 (RB33) 11.5 (RB34) -0.6 (RB35)
CIN Giovani Bernard 10.6 (RB34) 11.7 (RB32) -1.1 (RB50)
HOU Duke Johnson 9.8 (RB35) 10.1 (RB38) -0.4 (RB30)
BAL J.K. Dobbins 9.8 (RB36) 9.2 (RB42) +0.5 (RB16)
GB Jamaal Williams 9.7 (RB37) 10.9 (RB36) -1.2 (RB52)
LAC Kalen Ballage 9.6 (RB38) 13.9 (RB25) -4.3 (RB74)
BUF Devin Singletary 9.6 (RB39) 11.6 (RB33) -2.0 (RB64)
NE Damien Harris 9.1 (RB40) 9.4 (RB41) -0.3 (RB29)
NO Latavius Murray 9.1 (RB41) 8.6 (RB47) +0.5 (RB17)
NYG Wayne Gallman 9.1 (RB42) 9.2 (RB43) -0.1 (RB24)
LA Darrell Henderson 8.8 (RB43) 9.4 (RB40) -0.6 (RB37)
SEA Carlos Hyde 8.5 (RB44) 8.4 (RB49) +0.1 (RB19)
SF Jerick McKinnon 8.3 (RB45) 8.5 (RB48) -0.2 (RB27)
BUF Zack Moss 8.2 (RB46) 9.1 (RB45) -0.9 (RB46)
LA Cam Akers 8.2 (RB47) 9.1 (RB44) -0.9 (RB47)
BAL Gus Edwards 8.1 (RB48) 8.1 (RB51) +0.1 (RB20)
NE James White 8.0 (RB49) 8.0 (RB52) -0.1 (RB25)
DAL Tony Pollard 7.7 (RB50) 7.7 (RB56) +0.0 (RB22)
DET Adrian Peterson 7.5 (RB51) 9.0 (RB46) -1.5 (RB59)
LAC Justin Jackson 7.4 (RB52) 7.9 (RB54) -0.5 (RB34)
NYJ Frank Gore 7.3 (RB53) 9.9 (RB39) -2.6 (RB68)
LA Malcolm Brown 7.2 (RB54) 7.9 (RB55) -0.7 (RB39)
CIN Samaje Perine 6.7 (RB55) 7.0 (RB59) -0.3 (RB28)
NE Sony Michel 6.6 (RB56) 5.7 (RB67) +0.9 (RB14)
DEN Phillip Lindsay 6.4 (RB57) 7.9 (RB53) -1.5 (RB60)
JAX Chris Thompson 6.1 (RB58) 5.8 (RB66) +0.3 (RB18)
KC Le'Veon Bell 5.9 (RB59) 8.1 (RB50) -2.2 (RB65)
NYJ Ty Johnson 5.9 (RB60) 6.5 (RB60) -0.6 (RB36)
PHI Boston Scott 5.7 (RB61) 6.1 (RB62) -0.4 (RB31)
LAC Joshua Kelley 5.7 (RB62) 7.1 (RB58) -1.4 (RB55)
LV Devontae Booker 5.6 (RB63) 5.6 (RB69) +0.0 (RB23)
NYJ La'Mical Perine 5.4 (RB64) 6.2 (RB61) -0.9 (RB45)
ATL Brian Hill 5.4 (RB65) 5.9 (RB65) -0.5 (RB33)
SEA DeeJay Dallas 5.3 (RB66) 6.0 (RB64) -0.7 (RB41)
BAL Mark Ingram 5.2 (RB67) 6.0 (RB63) -0.8 (RB43)
PIT Benny Snell 5.1 (RB68) 7.6 (RB57) -2.5 (RB67)
SF JaMycal Hasty 4.4 (RB69) 5.2 (RB72) -0.8 (RB42)
MIN Alexander Mattison 4.4 (RB70) 5.3 (RB70) -0.8 (RB44)
CAR Rodney Smith 4.2 (RB71) 5.6 (RB68) -1.5 (RB57)
WAS Peyton Barber 3.9 (RB72) 5.2 (RB71) -1.4 (RB54)
ATL Ito Smith 3.6 (RB73) 5.1 (RB73) -1.5 (RB56)
JAX Dare Ogunbowale 3.1 (RB74) 5.0 (RB74) -1.8 (RB62)

 

The top 10 running backs in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

CLE Nick Chubb, NO Alvin Kamara, MIN Dalvin Cook, SEA Chris Carson, TEN Derrick Henry, WAS Antonio Gibson, JAX James Robinson, SF Jeff Wilson, GB Aaron Jones, and DET D'Andre Swift.

 

The bottom 10 running backs in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

LAC Kalen Ballage, DAL Ezekiel Elliott, LV Josh Jacobs, ARI Kenyan Drake, KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire, MIA Myles Gaskin, NYJ Frank Gore, PIT Benny Snell, CIN Joe Mixon, and KC Le'Veon Bell.

 


PPR Points Over Expected Per Game - TEs

To qualify, a tight end had to play in six healthy games and average at least 4.0 expected PPR points per game. There were 43 qualifiers.

Player PPR Expected PPR PPR Over Expected
KC Travis Kelce 20.8 (TE1) 17.0 (TE1) +3.9 (TE2)
SF George Kittle 17.0 (TE2) 13.2 (TE3) +3.8 (TE3)
LV Darren Waller 16.9 (TE3) 16.0 (TE2) +0.9 (TE11)
BAL Mark Andrews 12.6 (TE4) 12.0 (TE6) +0.7 (TE14)
PHI Dallas Goedert 12.5 (TE5) 11.5 (TE11) +0.9 (TE10)
DEN Noah Fant 11.4 (TE6) 11.6 (TE9) -0.3 (TE27)
DET T.J. Hockenson 11.3 (TE7) 11.8 (TE7) -0.5 (TE30)
GB Robert Tonyan 11.1 (TE8) 6.8 (TE25) +4.3 (TE1)
WAS Logan Thomas 10.9 (TE9) 12.1 (TE4) -1.2 (TE39)
MIA Mike Gesicki 10.8 (TE10) 10.1 (TE13) +0.6 (TE15)
TEN Jonnu Smith 10.5 (TE11) 9.4 (TE15) +1.0 (TE7)
PIT Eric Ebron 10.5 (TE12) 11.6 (TE8) -1.2 (TE36)
LAC Hunter Henry 10.4 (TE13) 11.6 (TE10) -1.2 (TE37)
TB Rob Gronkowski 9.6 (TE14) 8.8 (TE19) +0.9 (TE13)
CHI Jimmy Graham 9.4 (TE15) 9.4 (TE16) +0.0 (TE21)
NYG Evan Engram 9.3 (TE16) 12.0 (TE5) -2.7 (TE42)
ATL Hayden Hurst 9.1 (TE17) 9.1 (TE17) +0.0 (TE24)
DAL Dalton Schultz 9.0 (TE18) 8.9 (TE18) +0.1 (TE20)
LA Tyler Higbee 8.7 (TE19) 6.7 (TE26) +2.0 (TE4)
CLE Austin Hooper 8.3 (TE20) 9.5 (TE14) -1.2 (TE38)
NO Jared Cook 8.2 (TE21) 7.3 (TE23) +0.9 (TE12)
MIN Irv Smith 7.6 (TE22) 6.6 (TE27) +1.0 (TE8)
SF Jordan Reed 7.3 (TE23) 8.4 (TE20) -1.1 (TE35)
PHI Zach Ertz 7.1 (TE24) 11.3 (TE12) -4.2 (TE43)
IND Trey Burton 6.9 (TE25) 7.5 (TE22) -0.5 (TE31)
HOU Jordan Akins 6.8 (TE26) 6.9 (TE24) -0.0 (TE22)
MIN Tyler Conklin 6.2 (TE27) 5.1 (TE34) +1.1 (TE6)
JAX Tyler Eifert 6.2 (TE28) 8.1 (TE21) -1.9 (TE41)
ARI Dan Arnold 6.1 (TE29) 5.1 (TE35) +1.0 (TE9)
LA Gerald Everett 6.0 (TE30) 5.5 (TE32) +0.5 (TE16)
IND Mo Alie-Cox 5.9 (TE31) 4.7 (TE37) +1.2 (TE5)
MIN Kyle Rudolph 5.6 (TE32) 5.4 (TE33) +0.2 (TE19)
BUF Dawson Knox 5.5 (TE33) 5.7 (TE31) -0.2 (TE25)
TEN Anthony Firkser 5.3 (TE34) 6.1 (TE29) -0.7 (TE33)
CIN Drew Sample 5.2 (TE35) 5.9 (TE30) -0.7 (TE32)
SEA Greg Olsen 4.9 (TE36) 6.2 (TE28) -1.3 (TE40)
IND Jack Doyle 4.7 (TE37) 4.4 (TE40) +0.3 (TE17)
MIA Durham Smythe 4.5 (TE38) 4.2 (TE41) +0.3 (TE18)
SEA Jacob Hollister 4.5 (TE39) 4.8 (TE36) -0.4 (TE28)
CLE Harrison Bryant 4.4 (TE40) 4.4 (TE39) +0.0 (TE23)
NYJ Chris Herndon 3.9 (TE41) 4.1 (TE42) -0.2 (TE26)
JAX James O'Shaughnessy 3.7 (TE42) 4.1 (TE43) -0.4 (TE29)
CHI Cole Kmet 3.5 (TE43) 4.5 (TE38) -1.0 (TE34)

 

The top 10 tight ends in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

GB Robert Tonyan, KC Travis Kelce, SF George Kittle, LA Tyler Higbee, IND Mo Alie-Cox, MIN Tyler Conklin, TEN Jonnu Smith, MIN Irv Smith, ARI Dan Arnold, and PHI Dallas Goedert.

 

The bottom 10 tight ends in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

PHI Zach Ertz, NYG Evan Engram, JAX Tyler Eifert, SEA Greg Olsen, WAS Logan Thomas, CLE Austin Hooper, LAC Hunter Henry, PIT Eric Ebron, SF Jordan Reed, and CHI Cole Kmet.

 


 

PPR Points Over Expected Per Game - QBs

To qualify, a quarterback had to play in six healthy games and average at least 1.0 expected PPR points per game. There were 35 qualifiers. Note these are rushing and receiving stats only, not passing numbers.

Player PPR Expected PPR PPR Over Expected
ARI Kyler Murray 9.8 (QB1) 6.4 (QB3) +3.4 (QB1)
BAL Lamar Jackson 9.5 (QB2) 7.5 (QB2) +2.0 (QB3)
NE Cam Newton 9.0 (QB3) 8.7 (QB1) +0.3 (QB16)
NO Taysom Hill 7.1 (QB4) 6.1 (QB4) +0.9 (QB11)
BUF Josh Allen 6.5 (QB5) 5.4 (QB5) +1.1 (QB7)
PHI Carson Wentz 4.8 (QB6) 3.2 (QB10) +1.6 (QB4)
CAR Teddy Bridgewater 4.1 (QB7) 3.1 (QB12) +1.0 (QB9)
TEN Ryan Tannehill 4.1 (QB8) 1.9 (QB23) +2.2 (QB2)
HOU Deshaun Watson 4.1 (QB9) 4.2 (QB6) -0.1 (QB26)
SEA Russell Wilson 4.0 (QB10) 3.0 (QB14) +1.1 (QB8)
NYG Daniel Jones 3.9 (QB11) 2.6 (QB20) +1.4 (QB5)
MIA Tua Tagovailoa 3.7 (QB12) 3.6 (QB7) +0.1 (QB18)
LAC Justin Herbert 3.3 (QB13) 3.1 (QB13) +0.2 (QB17)
PHI Jalen Hurts 3.3 (QB14) 2.9 (QB15) +0.4 (QB14)
KC Patrick Mahomes 3.3 (QB15) 3.2 (QB9) +0.1 (QB19)
CIN Joe Burrow 3.2 (QB16) 3.2 (QB8) +0.0 (QB21)
MIA Ryan Fitzpatrick 3.1 (QB17) 3.1 (QB11) +0.0 (QB24)
NYJ Sam Darnold 3.0 (QB18) 1.7 (QB25) +1.3 (QB6)
DEN Drew Lock 3.0 (QB19) 2.7 (QB18) +0.4 (QB15)
IND Jacoby Brissett 2.5 (QB20) 1.5 (QB28) +1.0 (QB10)
CHI Mitchell Trubisky 2.3 (QB21) 2.8 (QB16) -0.4 (QB30)
LV Derek Carr 2.3 (QB22) 2.2 (QB22) +0.1 (QB20)
LA Jared Goff 2.3 (QB23) 2.3 (QB21) +0.0 (QB23)
JAX Gardner Minshew 2.2 (QB24) 1.8 (QB24) +0.5 (QB13)
GB Aaron Rodgers 2.2 (QB25) 1.6 (QB26) +0.6 (QB12)
WAS Dwayne Haskins 1.5 (QB26) 2.7 (QB17) -1.2 (QB33)
CLE Baker Mayfield 1.3 (QB27) 2.6 (QB19) -1.3 (QB35)
TB Tom Brady 1.2 (QB28) 1.4 (QB29) -0.2 (QB28)
NO Drew Brees 1.2 (QB29) 1.2 (QB32) +0.0 (QB22)
MIN Kirk Cousins 1.0 (QB30) 1.2 (QB33) -0.1 (QB27)
ATL Matt Ryan 1.0 (QB31) 1.1 (QB34) -0.1 (QB25)
DAL Andy Dalton 0.8 (QB32) 1.5 (QB27) -0.7 (QB32)
DET Matthew Stafford 0.7 (QB33) 1.3 (QB31) -0.6 (QB31)
CHI Nick Foles 0.7 (QB34) 1.1 (QB35) -0.4 (QB29)
PIT Ben Roethlisberger 0.1 (QB35) 1.3 (QB30) -1.2 (QB34)

 


PPR Points Per Game - All Offense

Team PPR Expected PPR PPR Over Expected
KC 90.0 (1) 84.1 (2) +5.9 (7)
GB 87.8 (2) 74.6 (21) +13.2 (1)
BUF 85.9 (3) 80.7 (7) +5.2 (8)
TB 85.5 (4) 82.1 (5) +3.3 (10)
SEA 84.9 (5) 75.6 (19) +9.3 (4)
ARI 84.5 (6) 81.6 (6) +2.9 (11)
NO 83.8 (7) 77.2 (15) +6.6 (6)
TEN 81.9 (8) 71.9 (26) +10.1 (3)
MIN 81.5 (9) 71.2 (27) +10.3 (2)
DAL 80.6 (10) 83.0 (4) -2.4 (22)
LAC 80.5 (11) 83.3 (3) -2.9 (24)
LV 79.7 (12) 78.2 (12) +1.5 (14)
LA 79.5 (13) 77.5 (13) +2 (13)
SF 78.8 (14) 77.3 (14) +1.4 (15)
PIT 78.6 (15) 85.3 (1) -6.7 (30)
ATL 78.5 (16) 80.4 (9) -1.9 (20)
IND 78.4 (17) 78.3 (11) +0.0 (17)
HOU 77.9 (18) 70.7 (28) +7.2 (5)
CLE 75.8 (19) 72.2 (25) +3.6 (9)
DET 75.7 (20) 76.7 (18) -1.0 (18)
CHI 74.2 (21) 80.7 (8) -6.5 (29)
CAR 73.9 (22) 72.8 (24) +1.1 (16)
PHI 73.1 (23) 74.5 (22) -1.5 (19)
CIN 72.2 (24) 79.6 (10) -7.4 (31)
WAS 71.5 (25) 77.0 (17) -5.5 (27)
BAL 71.3 (27) 68.9 (30) +2.4 (12)
JAX 71.3 (26) 73.4 (23) -2.0 (21)
DEN 71.1 (29) 75.2 (20) -4.1 (25)
MIA 71.1 (28) 77.1 (16) -6.0 (28)
NE 62.4 (30) 65.2 (31) -2.8 (23)
NYG 60.8 (31) 69.1 (29) -8.3 (32)
NYJ 56.6 (32) 61.1 (32) -4.5 (26)

 


PPR Points Per Game - Passing Only

Team PPR Expected PPR PPR Over Expected
KC 73.6 (1) 67.1 (2) +6.4 (6)
TB 70.0 (2) 66.5 (3) +3.5 (9)
BUF 69.3 (3) 62.9 (8) +6.5 (5)
GB 68.2 (4) 56.2 (22) +12.0 (1)
SEA 66.8 (5) 58.8 (14) +8.0 (4)
LAC 65.5 (6) 64.4 (6) +1.1 (16)
PIT 65.4 (7) 68.2 (1) -2.8 (23)
HOU 65.2 (8) 56.4 (21) +8.8 (3)
ATL 64.3 (9) 64.1 (7) +0.2 (19)
DAL 64.1 (10) 65.0 (4) -0.9 (21)
LV 62.2 (11) 58.0 (17) +4.2 (8)
ARI 61.1 (12) 58.4 (15) +2.7 (11)
DET 60.6 (13) 60.5 (11) +0.1 (20)
MIN 59.9 (14) 50.8 (29) +9.1 (2)
IND 59.7 (15) 58.4 (16) +1.2 (15)
CHI 59.5 (17) 64.6 (5) -5.2 (29)
SF 59.5 (16) 59.2 (13) +0.3 (17)
LA 59.1 (18) 57.0 (20) +2.2 (12)
NO 58.2 (19) 55.2 (24) +3.0 (10)
JAX 57.9 (20) 61.0 (10) -3.1 (25)
TEN 57.1 (21) 51.3 (28) +5.9 (7)
CIN 57.0 (22) 62.3 (9) -5.4 (30)
CAR 55.8 (23) 54.1 (25) +1.7 (14)
MIA 55.1 (24) 56.1 (23) -1.0 (22)
WAS 54.3 (26) 59.3 (12) -5.0 (28)
PHI 54.3 (25) 58.0 (18) -3.8 (27)
CLE 53.7 (27) 51.6 (27) +2.1 (13)
DEN 51.4 (28) 57.7 (19) -6.3 (31)
NYG 45.0 (29) 53.7 (26) -8.6 (32)
BAL 44.7 (30) 44.4 (31) +0.3 (18)
NYJ 42.9 (31) 46.2 (30) -3.3 (26)
NE 39.8 (32) 42.8 (32) -3.0 (24)

 


PPR Points Per Game - Rushing Only

Team PPR Expected PPR PPR Over Expected
BAL 26.6 (1) 24.4 (1) +2.1 (5)
NO 25.7 (2) 22.0 (4) +3.7 (2)
TEN 24.8 (3) 20.6 (6) +4.2 (1)
ARI 23.4 (4) 23.2 (2) +0.2 (13)
NE 22.5 (5) 22.4 (3) +0.2 (14)
CLE 22.1 (6) 20.6 (7) +1.5 (6)
MIN 21.6 (7) 20.4 (9) +1.2 (8)
LA 20.3 (8) 20.6 (8) -0.2 (16)
DEN 19.7 (9) 17.5 (19) +2.2 (4)
GB 19.6 (10) 18.4 (14) +1.2 (9)
SF 19.2 (11) 18.1 (15) +1.1 (10)
PHI 18.8 (12) 16.5 (24) +2.3 (3)
IND 18.7 (13) 19.9 (11) -1.2 (21)
CAR 18.1 (15) 18.7 (13) -0.7 (19)
SEA 18.1 (14) 16.8 (23) +1.3 (7)
LV 17.5 (16) 20.2 (10) -2.7 (29)
WAS 17.3 (17) 17.7 (18) -0.5 (17)
BUF 16.6 (18) 17.8 (17) -1.3 (23)
DAL 16.5 (19) 18.0 (16) -1.5 (25)
KC 16.4 (20) 17.0 (22) -0.6 (18)
MIA 16.0 (21) 21.1 (5) -5.0 (32)
NYG 15.8 (22) 15.4 (29) +0.4 (12)
TB 15.5 (23) 15.6 (28) -0.1 (15)
CIN 15.3 (24) 17.3 (20) -2.0 (27)
DET 15.1 (25) 16.2 (26) -1.0 (20)
LAC 15.0 (26) 18.9 (12) -4.0 (31)
CHI 14.7 (27) 16.0 (27) -1.4 (24)
ATL 14.2 (28) 16.3 (25) -2.1 (28)
NYJ 13.7 (29) 14.9 (30) -1.2 (22)
JAX 13.4 (30) 12.3 (32) +1.1 (11)
PIT 13.2 (31) 17.1 (21) -3.9 (30)
HOU 12.7 (32) 14.3 (31) -1.6 (26)

 


Winks' Offseason Columns

1. Targets Aren't Equal

2. Air Yards Report

3. Expected PPR Points

 


Questions?

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