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Fantasy Usage Model

Fantasy Usage Model Notes: A Week 15 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: December 22, 2020, 4:16 pm ET

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e., removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks)


Quick note: Hey guys, I hope you've enjoyed the column this year. I know it's not for everyone, but the process has been sound. I ran the numbers for this year and they've been very good: 

 


Top Rebound Candidates for Week 16

1. Curtis Samuel (@ WAS)

2. Miles Sanders (@ DAL)

3. Dallas Goedert (vs. DAL)

4. Terry McLaurin (vs. CAR)

5. Chris Carson (vs. LAR)

 


Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage Actual PPR Context
Brandon Aiyuk WR1 (21.9) WR6 (21.0) 12.8 targets per game in last 4 weeks (1st).
Stefon Diggs WR2 (20.1) WR5 (21.2) 11.8 targets per game in last 4 weeks (2nd).
Calvin Ridley WR3 (19.7) WR2 (22.9) 19.7 PPR per game on 18.2 xFPs without Julio.
Justin Jefferson WR4 (19.6) WR9 (19.9) A video of my Jefferson thoughts.
DeVante Parker WR5 (19.4) WR25 (13.7) Removed Weeks 14-15. WR1/2 usage.
Marvin Jones WR6 (19.3) WR14 (18.1) 17.2 PPR per game on 15.4 xFPs w/o Kenny.
Jarvis Landry WR7 (18.8) WR10 (19.7) 9.5 targets per game in last 4 weeks (13th).
DeAndre Hopkins WR8 (18.7) WR4 (21.3) At least 18.0 xFPs in last three games. WR1.
Davante Adams WR9 (18.7) WR3 (22.0) 35% target share in last 4 games.
Tyreek Hill WR10 (18.5) WR1 (29.1) All-time outlier on WR1 usage.
Allen Robinson WR11 (18.3) WR7 (20.1) Trubisky only had 21 attempts in Week 15.
Keenan Allen WR12 (18.0) WR21 (14.7) Removed Week 15. WR1/2 usage.
Diontae Johnson WR13 (17.9) WR18 (15.4) 11.3 targets per game in last 4 weeks (3rd).
Deebo Samuel WR14 (16.0) WR12 (19.0) Removed Weeks 14-15.
Nelson Agholor WR15 (15.6) WR35 (12.0) Not a No. 1 WR but seeing No. 1 volume.
Curtis Samuel WR16 (15.4) WR30 (12.5) 16.1 PPR per game on 14.5 xFPs since injury.
DK Metcalf WR17 (15.4) WR15 (17.0) Outlier player but usage trending down.
Robert Woods WR18 (14.9) WR16 (16.0) Target % in last 4: Woods (30%), Kupp (18%).
D.J. Moore WR19 (14.6) WR22 (14.7) 105 air yards per game in last 4 weeks (12th).
Cole Beasley WR20 (14.4) WR20 (15.2) 14.0 xFPs in games without Brown. WR2/3.
Russell Gage WR21 (14.4) WR29 (13.1) 10.6 PPR per game on 13.2 xFPs without Julio.
Michael Gallup WR22 (14.2) WR37 (11.9) 7.5 targets per game in last 4 weeks (26th).
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR23 (14.0) WR33 (12.4) Boomers are big mad about the TikToks.
Robby Anderson WR24 (14.0) WR26 (13.7) 13.8 xFPs since Samuel's return. WR2/3.
Terry McLaurin WR25 (13.7) WR51 (9.7) 16.9 xFPs in 5 games with Haskins.
Rashard Higgins WR26 (12.8) WR27 (13.6) 84 air yards per game in last 4 weeks (21st).
T.Y. Hilton WR27 (12.7) WR8 (20.0) 94 air yards per game in last 4 weeks (14th).
D.J. Chark WR28 (12.6) WR81 (6.3) 110 air yards P/G in last 4 weeks. I know...
Mike Williams WR29 (12.3) WR74 (7.0) Removed Weeks 14-15. Downfield only.
Chase Claypool WR30 (12.2) WR69 (7.3) WR3 usage but Big Ben can't hit him deep.
Hunter Renfrow WR31 (11.9) WR43 (10.6) Removed Week 15 (concussion).
Amari Cooper WR32 (11.8) WR23 (14.5) Season-low 5.2 xFPs in Wk 15. Rebound.
Marquise Brown WR33 (11.7) WR17 (15.6) 36% target share in last 4 weeks. WR3/4.
Jakobi Meyers WR34 (11.6) WR48 (10.1) 10.3 xFPs since Harry's return.
Mike Evans WR35 (11.5) WR19 (15.2) 15.5 xFPs with AB. Clear-cut No. 1 WR for TB.
A.J. Brown WR36 (11.4) WR11 (19.5) WR1/2 numbers on WR3 usage. Stud.
Tyler Boyd WR37 (11.2) WR54 (9.3) Removed Week 15 (concussion). WR4 usage.
Gabriel Davis WR38 (11.0) WR38 (11.9) 10.4 xFPs in games without Brown. WR4.
Jamison Crowder WR39 (10.9) WR41 (10.8) 25% target share in last 4 weeks. WR4 usage.
Laviska Shenault WR40 (10.8) WR40 (11.0) WR4 usage as No. 2 outside receiver.
Brandin Cooks WR41 (10.8) WR34 (12.3) 2 games without Fuller have been vs. IND.
Tee Higgins WR42 (10.6) WR44 (10.5) Between 10.2-10.9 xFPs in non-Burrow games.
Keelan Cole WR43 (10.6) WR64 (8.3) Season-low 2.9 xFPs in Week 15. Slot only.
Corey Davis WR44 (10.4) WR13 (18.2) +4.4 PPR over expected in breakout season.
Adam Thielen WR45 (10.4) WR31 (12.5) 17.8, 7.0, & 6.6 xFPs in last 3 games.
Sterling Shepard WR46 (10.3) WR63 (8.3) Low-ceiling player on consistent WR5 usage.
Cooper Kupp WR47 (10.1) WR42 (10.8) Season-low 5.8 xFPs in Week 15.
CeeDee Lamb WR48 (10.0) WR50 (9.8) 10.9 xFPs since Dalton returned. WR4/5.
Darnell Mooney WR49 (9.9) WR46 (10.5) 8.2 xFPs with Trubisky. Deep threat.
Sammy Watkins WR50 (9.9) WR65 (8.1) 50-of-60 routes in Week 15. WR4/5 usage.
Chris Godwin WR51 (9.7) WR36 (11.9) 55 air yards per game in last 4 weeks.
Tyler Lockett WR52 (9.7) WR59 (8.8) 19% target share in last 4 weeks. Knee?
Michael Pittman WR53 (9.6) WR83 (6.2) 9.9 xFPs since Hilton's return.
Danny Amendola WR54 (9.5) WR57 (8.9) 9.0 PPR per game on 9.2 xFPs w/o Kenny.
Keke Coutee WR55 (9.5) WR28 (13.4) 10.9 xFPs without Fuller as slot zone beater.
Chad Hansen WR56 (9.0) WR24 (13.7) 11.6, 10.4, & 5.0 xFPs in starts.
Lynn Bowden WR57 (8.8) WR60 (8.8) 15.1 & 12.2 xFPs in last 2 games.
Damiere Byrd WR58 (8.8) WR82 (6.3) 9.6 xFPs since Harry's return.
Mecole Hardman WR59 (8.8) WR79 (6.4) 138 air yards in Week 15 as the No. 4 WR.
Kendrick Bourne WR60 (8.7) WR49 (9.9) Huge game on just 4.5 xFPs in Week 15.
Cam Sims WR61 (8.5) WR85 (6.0) 60-of-62 routes in Week 15.
Jalen Reagor WR62 (8.5) WR77 (6.8) Season-high 13.4 xFPs in Week 15.
Antonio Brown WR63 (8.5) WR39 (11.1) 11.0 xFPs per game with Bucs as No. 3 WR.
Andy Isabella WR64 (8.3) WR99 (5.0) Deservedly healthy scratched. Body catcher.
Tim Patrick WR65 (8.2) WR32 (12.5) Sub-10.0 xFPs in each of last 3 games.
Christian Kirk WR66 (8.2) WR104 (4.2) Sub 12.5 xFPs in all but one game.
Denzel Mims WR67 (8.2) WR71 (7.2) -1.8 PPR points over expected. Prayer yards.
Darius Slayton WR68 (8.0) WR87 (5.9) 8.1 xFPs since Shepard's return.
Jalen Guyton WR69 (7.8) WR75 (6.9) 11.0 xFPs in Week 15 with WRs hurt.
Greg Ward WR70 (7.8) WR53 (9.4) Wk 15 routes: AS (38-of-58), GW (30), JR (27).
Allen Lazard WR71 (7.6) WR61 (8.7) 7.3 xFPs since return. Low-aDOT target.
Breshad Perriman WR72 (7.6) WR86 (6.0) Season-low 1.6 xFPs in Week 15.
Collin Johnson WR73 (7.5) WR55 (9.3) Only plays in 4-WR sets.
Golden Tate WR74 (7.5) WR88 (5.7) 7.0 xFPs since Shepard's return.
David Moore WR75 (7.3) WR80 (6.4) Sub-10.2 xFPs in all but 1 game.
Jakeem Grant WR76 (7.2) WR93 (5.3) Removed Week 15.
Henry Ruggs WR77 (7.1) WR47 (10.2) Removed Week 15. Deep-threat only. Sad.
Emmanuel Sanders WR78 (7.0) WR58 (8.9) 12.5 xFPs with Brees & without Thomas.
KJ Hamler WR79 (7.0) WR52 (9.6) Sub-10.0 xFPs in each of last 4 games.
James Washington WR80 (7.0) WR67 (8.0) Sub-12.0 xFPs in all games.
Tyron Johnson WR81 (6.9) WR45 (10.5) 8.4 xFPs in Week 15 with WRs hurt.
A.J. Green WR82 (6.8) WR84 (6.1) Sub-5.0 xFPs in 3-of-4 games without Burrow.
Braxton Berrios WR83 (6.7) WR92 (5.4) Ran 3-of-36 routes in Week 15.
Jerry Jeudy WR84 (6.5) WR113 (3.5) Bad usage & struggling with contact.
Anthony Miller WR85 (6.5) WR89 (5.7) 10-of-26 routes in Week 15. 3-WR sets only.
Zach Pascal WR86 (6.2) WR62 (8.5) Outlier game on 13.0 xFPs in Week 15.
Chad Beebe WR87 (5.9) WR78 (6.6) 2.2 xFPs with Thielen since the bye.
Larry Fitzgerald WR88 (5.9) WR68 (7.8) Part-time slot WR with 0 15.0 PPR games.
Mack Hollins WR89 (5.8) WR94 (5.3)  
Tre'Quan Smith WR90 (5.8) WR72 (7.2) Wk 15 routes: JJ (30), ES (29), LH (20), TS (16).
Mohamed Sanu WR91 (5.4) WR66 (8.1) 3-WR set starter. 7.5 xFPs in Week 15.
N'Keal Harry WR92 (5.4) WR101 (4.9) Sub-7.0 xFPs in each of last 4 games.
Noah Brown WR93 (5.3) WR112 (3.6) Obviously not a thing.
Bisi Johnson WR94 (5.2) WR70 (7.2) Obviously not a thing.
Cordarrelle Patterson WR95 (5.1) WR102 (4.6) Obviously not a thing.
Willie Snead WR96 (4.9) WR116 (3.0) Season-low 2.2 xFPs in Week 15.
KeeSean Johnson WR97 (4.9) WR107 (4.0) Between 5.0 & 5.5 xFPs in last 3 games.
Quintez Cephus WR98 (4.8) WR76 (6.8) 17-of-43 routes in Week 15.
Josh Reynolds WR99 (4.7) WR103 (4.6) 32-of-40 routes in Week 15.
Donovan Peoples-Jones WR100 (4.7) WR56 (9.0)  

 


Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage Actual PPR Context
Darren Waller TE1 (19.3) TE1 (24.0) 1.6 red zone targets per game leads TEs.
Travis Kelce TE2 (18.0) TE2 (23.1) Historic season on historic usage.
Eric Ebron TE3 (16.7) TE10 (11.9) Removed Week 15 (back).
Logan Thomas TE4 (15.0) TE4 (17.6) 8.8 targets per game in last 4 weeks (3rd).
Noah Fant TE5 (14.1) TE5 (15.3) 28% target share in last 4 games. TE1.
T.J. Hockenson TE6 (13.8) TE8 (12.4) 1.2 red zone targets per game (3rd at TE).
Mike Gesicki TE7 (13.3) TE3 (19.6) Removed Week 15. TE1/2 usage.
Dallas Goedert TE8 (12.8) TE9 (12.1) 8.7 & 13.6 xFPs in Hurts. Mid-range TE1.
Hunter Henry TE9 (12.5) TE12 (10.7) A mid-range TE1 all year.
Evan Engram TE10 (11.6) TE16 (9.6) Underperforming low-end TE1 usage.
Rob Gronkowski TE11 (10.3) TE14 (9.9) 15% target share in last 4 weeks.
Mark Andrews TE12 (10.0) TE6 (15.2) 11.1 xFPs since bye. Offense trending up.
Jordan Reed TE13 (9.4) TE23 (7.3) 13% target share in last 4 weeks. Needs TDs.
Hayden Hurst TE14 (9.0) TE29 (6.1) 7.5 PPR per game on 9.0 xFPs without Julio.
Kyle Rudolph TE15 (8.9) TE25 (6.9) Removed Weeks 14-15. 4.2 xFPs with Irv.
Robert Tonyan TE16 (8.7) TE7 (14.3) +4.7 PPR over expected per game. TE1.
Cole Kmet TE17 (8.6) TE24 (7.0) 20-of-26 routes in Week 15. TE2 usage.
Dawson Knox TE18 (8.4) TE15 (9.7) 9.8 xFPs in last 3 games. Allen's No. 4 target.
Jordan Akins TE19 (7.8) TE37 (4.6) 8.5 xFPs without Fuller. TE2 usage.
Zach Ertz TE20 (7.7) TE31 (5.6) -4.0 PPR over expected on TE2/3 usage.
Dan Arnold TE21 (7.7) TE13 (10.5) Using Darnold instead of 4-WR sets now.
Irv Smith TE22 (7.3) TE11 (11.5) xFPs: With Rudolph (4.8), without (7.3).
Jared Cook TE23 (6.9) TE22 (7.4) 8.0 xFPs in games with Brees.
Tyler Higbee TE24 (6.8) TE18 (9.6) 27-of-40 routes in Week 15. Improvement.
Tyler Eifert TE25 (6.8) TE19 (8.4) 7.7 xFPs with Minshew.
Drew Sample TE26 (6.7) TE27 (6.6) Backup-level TE on TE3 usage.
Austin Hooper TE27 (6.6) TE17 (9.6) 12.6 xFPs in Wk 15 were most since Wk 5.
Dalton Schultz TE28 (5.9) TE20 (7.9) 7.4 xFPs in games with Dalton. TE2/3.
Jimmy Graham TE29 (5.7) TE30 (5.8) 10-of-26 routes in Week 15. TE3 usage.
Gerald Everett TE30 (5.6) TE34 (5.2) Missed some of Week 15 with an injury.
Durham Smythe TE31 (5.5) TE32 (5.4) 10.4 xFPs in Week 15 with Gesicki out.
Cameron Brate TE32 (5.5) TE28 (6.2) 4.8 xFPs with AB. Only plays in 2-TE sets.
James O'Shaughnessy TE33 (5.5) TE41 (4.2) Obviously not a thing.
Jacob Hollister TE34 (5.4) TE33 (5.2) 20-of-33 routes in Week 15.
Trey Burton TE35 (5.0) TE40 (4.3) 3-TE rotation has zapped all Colts TEs.
Tyler Conklin TE36 (4.8) TE26 (6.8) 7.8 & 6.3 xFPs in last 2 without Rudolph.
Ian Thomas TE37 (4.6) TE42 (4.1) Hasn't reach 10.0 PPR points in a game.
Anthony Firkser TE38 (4.5) TE47 (3.7) Week 15 routes: Smith (22), Firkser (13).
Harrison Bryant TE39 (4.4) TE55 (2.8) Wk 15 routes: AH (25-of-35), AB (16), DN (12).
Adam Shaheen TE40 (4.0) TE46 (3.7) Obviously not a thing.

 


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player Fantasy Usage Actual PPR Context
Dalvin Cook RB1 (24.9) RB5 (20.5) Only lost 6 snaps to Mattison Week 15.
Josh Jacobs RB2 (24.3) RB15 (15.4) Season-high 32.5 xFPs in Week 15.
Austin Ekeler RB3 (22.9) RB8 (17.6) Very clearly not 100% but elite usage.
David Montgomery RB4 (19.9) RB1 (26.5) 18.9 PPR per game since Cohen's injury.
Kenyan Drake RB5 (18.9) RB17 (15.0) Season-low 7.8 xFPs in Wk 15 after big weeks.
D'Andre Swift RB6 (18.7) RB6 (19.6) 17.9 PPR per game on 16.6 xFPs since bye.
James Robinson RB7 (18.1) RB7 (19.1) 10.8 & 13.3 xFPs in last 2. Losing routes.
David Johnson RB8 (17.0) RB9 (17.4) Season-high 23.9 xFPs in Week 15 w/o Duke.
Nick Chubb RB9 (16.7) RB4 (20.8) +4.9 PPR over expected. Better with a lead.
DeAndre Washington RB10 (16.6) RB43 (7.6) Unsure who will start for MIA at RB.
Cam Akers RB11 (16.6) RB18 (14.9) 23.6, 21.8, & 13.7 xFPs in three starts.
Mike Davis RB12 (16.6) RB16 (15.1) Lost 15 routes to Smith in Week 15.
Jonathan Taylor RB13 (16.2) RB3 (24.2) 17.7 & 19.7 xFPs in last 2 games. Ballin'.
Derrick Henry RB14 (16.0) RB2 (26.5) Outlier on RB1/2 usage.
Ezekiel Elliott RB15 (15.9) RB39 (8.8) Simply not the best RB in Dallas backfield.
Benny Snell RB16 (15.2) RB37 (9.1) 11.7 PPR per game on 19.7 xFPs in 3 starts.
J.D. McKissic RB17 (15.0) RB19 (14.7) 24.2 xFPs in Week 15 while in catch-up mode.
Leonard Fournette RB18 (14.5) RB20 (13.3) 19.5 xFPs in start. 13.2 xFPs with RoJo.
Aaron Jones RB19 (14.4) RB11 (17.0) 16.0 PPR per game on 15.9 xFPs with Adams.
Jeff Wilson RB20 (14.1) RB38 (8.9) Mostert & Wilson could miss Week 16.
Alvin Kamara RB21 (13.9) RB13 (16.2) 14.4 xFPs in Week 15 were lowest with Brees.
Frank Gore RB22 (13.8) RB34 (9.7) Season-high 21.5 xFPs in Jets' win. RB3.
Nyheim Hines RB23 (13.7) RB24 (12.2) Only played 16-of-54 snaps in Week 15.
Chris Carson RB24 (13.1) RB14 (15.4) 14.3 xFPs in last 3 games. Upside RB2.
Chase Edmonds RB25 (13.0) RB33 (9.9) More snaps (36 to 34) than Drake Week 15.
Melvin Gordon RB26 (13.0) RB10 (17.1) Goal-line role but a RBBC. RB2/3 usage.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB27 (12.6) RB35 (9.4) Out weeks with hip/ankle injury.
Miles Sanders RB28 (12.5) RB26 (11.7) 19.0 & 17.0 xFPs with Hurts. RB1/2.
Tony Pollard RB29 (12.4) RB22 (13.0) 26.1 xFPs in lone start. Better than Zeke.
Wayne Gallman RB30 (12.3) RB36 (9.4) Sub-8.0 xFPs in each of last 3 games.
Damien Harris RB31 (12.1) RB47 (7.1) Removed Week 15. Early-down grinder.
Kareem Hunt RB32 (11.7) RB23 (12.4) 13.4 xFPs since Chubb's return. Volatile RB2.
J.K. Dobbins RB33 (11.7) RB21 (13.2) Season-high 14.6 xFPs in Week 15.
Ronald Jones RB34 (11.7) RB12 (16.4) 16.6 xFPs in Week 14. Fournette active?
Adrian Peterson RB35 (10.8) RB30 (10.4) Potential goal-line vulture on RB3/4 usage.
Devin Singletary RB36 (10.8) RB27 (11.7) Moss handled both Week 15 inside-10 opps.
Raheem Mostert RB37 (10.6) RB40 (8.4) Mostert & Wilson could miss Week 16.
Ito Smith RB38 (10.6) RB41 (8.2) "Starter" but 6.4, 8.1, & 7.3 xFPs in last 3.
Ty Johnson RB39 (10.5) RB31 (10.1) Better than Gore but RB4 usage.
Duke Johnson RB40 (10.4) RB25 (12.0) Removed Week 15.
Giovani Bernard RB41 (10.4) RB32 (10.0) 8.1, 9.0, 5.4, & 19.0 xFPs without Burrow.
Le'Veon Bell RB42 (10.0) RB49 (6.4) 16.1 xFPs in lone game without CEH.
Carlos Hyde RB43 (9.9) RB46 (7.5) 8.0 xFPs in last 3 games. Fade the TD.
Phillip Lindsay RB44 (9.0) RB55 (5.1) 13-of-14 Week 15 opps on early downs.
Zack Moss RB45 (8.5) RB51 (5.9) 77% of Week 15 touches from garbage time.
Jamaal Williams RB46 (7.9) RB44 (7.6) Removed Week 15. Insurance only.
Kalen Ballage RB47 (7.8) RB53 (5.7) Potential goal-line vulture.
Latavius Murray RB48 (7.7) RB29 (10.5) 8.8 xFPs in games with Brees.
Gus Edwards RB49 (7.7) RB28 (11.3) 12.3 xFPs in Week 15 with Ingram inactive.
Devontae Booker RB50 (7.7) RB68 (3.4) Split time with other scatbacks Week 15.
Matt Breida RB51 (7.3) RB42 (8.0) Obviously not a thing.
Peyton Barber RB52 (7.3) RB48 (6.6) 8.2 xFPs in 3 games without Gibson.
James White RB53 (6.5) RB45 (7.5) Sub-9.0 xFPs in 8 of last 9 games.
Todd Gurley RB54 (6.4) RB62 (3.8) Season-low 3.2 xFPs in Week 15. Washed.
Rodney Smith RB55 (6.3) RB57 (4.6) Season-high 9.6 xFPs as pass-catching RB.
Jeremy McNichols RB56 (6.0) RB60 (4.0) Obviously not a thing.
Buddy Howell RB57 (5.8) RB61 (3.9) Only played 10-of-69 Week 15 snaps.
Kerryon Johnson RB58 (5.7) RB50 (6.3) Played 8-of-67 snaps in Week 15.
C.J. Prosise RB59 (5.7) RB54 (5.3) Obviously not a thing.
Sony Michel RB60 (5.3) RB58 (4.6)  

 


Week 16 Fantasy Usage Model

1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)

2. Targets Aren't Equal (Monday Night)

3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

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