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Fantasy Usage Model

High Value RB Touches: JT Busts in Week 8

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 3, 2020, 4:15 pm ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "High Value RB Touches & Game Script" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.

 


Week 8 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

PlayerEarly DownsThird DownInside 10Passing Situation Targets
ATL Todd Gurley16220
ATL Brian Hill14000
ATL Keith Smith1000
ATL Qadree Ollison0100
BAL Gus Edwards17010
BAL J.K. Dobbins15201
BUF Devin Singletary14100
BUF Zack Moss13241
CAR Mike Davis14000
CHI David Montgomery21524
CHI Ryan Nall1001
CIN Giovani Bernard16320
CIN Samaje Perine11020
CLE Kareem Hunt15200
CLE D'Ernest Johnson2101
CLE Andy Janovich0101
DAL Ezekiel Elliott18321
DAL Tony Pollard9000
DEN Melvin Gordon12305
DEN Phillip Lindsay8103
DET D'Andre Swift9101
DET Adrian Peterson6001
DET Kerryon Johnson1112
GB Jamaal Williams18321
GB AJ Dillon5100
GB Tyler Ervin3000
IND Jordan Wilkins19210
IND Jonathan Taylor10321
IND Nyheim Hines9111
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire9012
KC Le'Veon Bell7100
KC Darrel Williams3100
KC Darwin Thompson2200
LA Malcolm Brown11100
LA Darrell Henderson10010
LA Cam Akers9100
LAC Justin Jackson20201
LAC Joshua Kelley7010
LAC Gabe Nabers1011
LAC Troymaine Pope16103
LV Josh Jacobs28350
LV Devontae Booker5101
LV Jalen Richard0201
MIA Myles Gaskin19530
MIA Matt Breida4000
MIN Dalvin Cook27552
MIN Alexander Mattison3000
MIN C.J. Ham1010
NE Damien Harris16020
NE James White5102
NE Rex Burkhead3401
NO Alvin Kamara19403
NO Latavius Murray9202
NYG Alfred Morris8000
NYG Dion Lewis1213
NYG Elijah Penny1000
NYG Wayne Gallman12111
NYJ Frank Gore10000
NYJ Lamical Perine7202
NYJ Ty Johnson4000
PHI Boston Scott17011
PHI Corey Clement7000
PIT James Conner15311
PIT Jaylen Samuels2001
PIT Anthony McFarland1000
SEA DeeJay Dallas21250
SEA Travis Homer1000
SF JaMycal Hasty11130
SF Jerick McKinnon6110
SF Tevin Coleman3000
SF Kyle Juszczyk2000
TB Leonard Fournette19203
TB Ronald Jones11002
TEN Derrick Henry16331
TEN D'Onta Foreman5000
TEN Jeremy McNichols5000
TEN Khari Blasingame1000

 


Week 8 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player

Garbage Rate

Garbage Touch

Total Touches

Gerald Everett

78%

7

9

Brandon Aiyuk

73%

8

11

Cam Akers

70%

7

10

Malcolm Brown

67%

8

12

Myles Gaskin

67%

16

24

Jerick McKinnon

63%

5

8

Kendrick Bourne

60%

6

10

Robert Woods

60%

6

10

Davante Adams

58%

7

12

Marvin Hall

57%

4

7

Marvin Jones

57%

4

7

Robert Tonyan

57%

4

7

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

56%

5

9

Josh Reynolds

56%

5

9

Mecole Hardman

56%

5

9

Phillip Lindsay

56%

5

9

Tyler Boyd

56%

5

9

Samaje Perine

55%

6

11

Cooper Kupp

52%

11

21

Corey Davis

50%

5

10

Jerry Jeudy

50%

5

10

Tyreek Hill

50%

3

6

 


High Value RB Touches

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "High Value Touches", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.

PlayerHigh ValueInside 10TargetsCarriesOppsHigh Value %Last 4 Games
1. Alvin Kamara10.70.310.312.322.747%3
2. Leonard Fournette8.52.06.513.019.544%2
3. Myles Gaskin8.03.05.017.322.336%3
4. David Montgomery7.82.05.816.021.836%4
5. Joe Mixon7.52.05.521.026.528%2
6. Dalvin Cook7.03.04.023.527.525%2
7. DeeJay Dallas7.02.54.59.013.552%2
8. James Robinson6.71.05.715.721.331%3
9. Mike Davis6.51.55.013.518.535%4
10. Melvin Gordon6.51.05.512.518.036%2
11. D'Andre Swift6.32.04.39.714.045%3
12. Aaron Jones6.01.05.010.015.040%1
13. Derrick Henry6.03.52.519.822.327%4
14. Jamaal Williams6.02.04.013.017.035%3
15. Clyde Edwards-Helaire5.81.04.812.517.333%4
16. David Johnson5.72.33.316.720.028%3
17. Justin Jackson5.70.05.712.318.031%3
18. Josh Jacobs5.73.02.721.324.024%3
19. Ezekiel Elliott5.51.54.015.519.528%4
20. J.D. McKissic5.30.05.34.710.053%3
21. Giovani Bernard5.31.83.59.012.542%4
22. Chris Carson5.00.54.56.511.045%2
23. Chase Edmonds5.00.05.04.39.354%3
24. James Conner5.02.03.017.520.524%4
25. Kareem Hunt4.81.33.516.319.824%4
26. Todd Gurley4.81.83.018.821.822%4
27. Darrell Henderson4.52.52.013.015.030%4
28. Miles Sanders4.51.53.010.013.035%2
29. Ronald Jones4.51.33.315.018.325%4
30. Antonio Gibson4.30.73.713.317.025%3
31. Jonathan Taylor4.31.03.311.715.029%3
32. Boston Scott4.31.52.87.510.341%4
33. Carlos Hyde4.00.04.015.019.021%1
34. Kenyan Drake4.02.31.717.319.021%3
35. Troymaine Pope3.50.03.55.59.039%2
36. Joshua Kelley3.31.02.310.012.327%3
37. Wayne Gallman3.30.72.79.011.729%3
38. Alexander Mattison3.01.31.711.012.724%3
39. Devonta Freeman3.01.02.012.714.720%3
40. J.K. Dobbins3.00.03.08.311.326%3
41. Jerick McKinnon3.00.32.83.36.050%4
42. Lamical Perine3.00.32.78.711.326%3
43. Malcolm Brown3.00.82.37.59.831%4
44. Raheem Mostert3.00.52.514.016.518%2
45. T.J. Yeldon3.00.03.07.010.030%1
46. Brian Hill2.80.32.57.39.828%4
47. Zack Moss2.71.31.38.710.027%3
48. Devin Singletary2.50.32.310.813.019%4
49. Jeff Wilson2.51.01.510.512.021%2
50. Tony Pollard2.50.02.57.810.324%4
51. Gus Edwards2.31.01.312.313.717%3
52. Latavius Murray2.30.32.09.011.021%3
53. Benny Snell2.01.70.35.05.338%3
54. Corey Clement2.00.51.53.55.040%2
55. JaMycal Hasty2.01.01.010.011.018%3
56. Le'Veon Bell2.00.51.56.07.527%2
57. Jeremy McNichols1.80.51.34.86.029%4
58. Adrian Peterson1.70.71.010.311.315%3
59. Phillip Lindsay1.70.71.012.713.712%3
60. Rex Burkhead1.70.01.75.06.725%3
61. Royce Freeman1.50.01.55.57.021%2
62. Devontae Booker1.30.01.35.06.321%3
63. Damien Harris1.30.70.710.711.312%3
64. Matt Breida1.30.31.06.37.318%3
65. Samaje Perine1.30.70.74.04.729%3
66. Darrel Williams1.00.01.04.55.518%2
67. Frank Gore1.00.01.010.311.39%4
68. Jordan Wilkins1.00.30.77.38.013%3
69. Le'Veon Bell1.00.01.013.014.07%1
70. LeSean McCoy1.00.01.04.05.020%1
71. Mark Ingram1.01.00.08.08.013%2
72. D'Ernest Johnson0.80.00.83.84.517%4
73. Cam Akers0.50.00.59.09.55%2
74. Darwin Thompson0.50.00.53.54.013%2
75. Peyton Barber0.50.00.57.07.57%2
76. AJ Dillon0.30.00.35.05.36%3
77. Alfred Morris0.00.00.08.08.00%1
78. D'Onta Foreman0.00.00.05.05.00%1
79. Dontrelle Hilliard0.00.00.04.04.00%1

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Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Player

Neutral

Trailing

Leading

Game Script Bump

ARI Kenyan Drake

30%

22%

33%

 

ARI Kyler Murray

11%

18%

18%

 

ARI Chase Edmonds

9%

16%

16%

 

ATL Todd Gurley

36%

20%

36%

Positive

ATL Brian Hill

14%

16%

16%

 

BAL Gus Edwards

24%

NA

21%

 

BAL J.K. Dobbins

20%

NA

16%

 

BAL Lamar Jackson

19%

NA

12%

 

BUF Devin Singletary

32%

15%

13%

 

BUF Josh Allen

12%

9%

23%

 

CAR Mike Davis

37%

30%

49%

Positive

CAR Teddy Bridgewater

12%

7%

6%

 

CHI David Montgomery

34%

37%

41%

 

CIN Giovani Bernard

21%

6%

25%

Positive

CIN Joe Burrow

5%

6%

7%

 

CLE Kareem Hunt

41%

32%

35%

 

CLE D'Ernest Johnson

5%

6%

19%

 

DAL Ezekiel Elliott

41%

24%

NA

 

DAL Tony Pollard

13%

19%

NA

 

DEN Phillip Lindsay

21%

13%

36%

Positive

DEN Drew Lock

6%

2%

11%

 

DET Adrian Peterson

27%

6%

21%

 

DET D'Andre Swift

25%

15%

28%

 

GB Jamaal Williams

32%

17%

39%

Positive

GB A.J. Dillon

11%

8%

8%

 

HOU David Johnson

32%

29%

38%

 

HOU Deshaun Watson

0%

12%

5%

 

IND Jonathan Taylor

41%

21%

12%

 

IND Jordan Wilkins

12%

4%

30%

Positive

JAX James Robinson

41%

32%

NA

 

JAX Gardner Minshew

5%

7%

NA

 

KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire

37%

NA

23%

 

LA Darrell Henderson

43%

12%

25%

 

LA Malcolm Brown

3%

14%

19%

 

LAC Justin Jackson

27%

NA

23%

 

LAC Joshua Kelley

16%

NA

18%

 

LAC Justin Herbert

5%

NA

9%

 

LV Josh Jacobs

39%

15%

55%

Positive

LV Devontae Booker

7%

23%

6%

Negative

LV Jalen Richard

7%

15%

4%

 

LV Derek Carr

5%

3%

13%

 

MIA Myles Gaskin

50%

NA

40%

 

MIA Matt Breida

0%

NA

16%

 

MIN Alexander Mattison

18%

21%

26%

 

NE Damien Harris

28%

19%

NA

 

NE Cam Newton

19%

16%

NA

 

NE Rex Burkhead

14%

13%

NA

 

NO Alvin Kamara

33%

35%

29%

 

NO Latavius Murray

18%

7%

22%

 

NO Taysom Hill

10%

3%

6%

 

NYG Devonta Freeman

29%

10%

35%

Positive

NYG Daniel Jones

5%

19%

8%

 

NYJ Frank Gore

28%

18%

NA

 

PHI Boston Scott

26%

8%

NA

 

PHI Carson Wentz

13%

6%

NA

 

PIT James Conner

32%

NA

33%

 

SEA Russell Wilson

6%

14%

10%

 

SF Jerick McKinnon

6%

10%

12%

 

TB Ronald Jones

29%29%29% 

TEN Derrick Henry

33%

35%

40%

 

TEN Jeremy McNichols

6%

9%

14%

 

WAS Antonio Gibson

38%

22%

36%

 

WAS J.D. McKissic

18%

23%

11%

 

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 9

Part 1: High-Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks