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Fantasy Usage Model

High Value RB Touches: McKissic's Week 10 Role

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 17, 2020, 12:12 pm ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "High Value RB Touches & Game Script" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches. 

 


Week 10 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

PlayerEarly DownsThird DownInside 10Passing Situation Targets
ARI Kenyan Drake16120
ARI Chase Edmonds11002
BAL Gus Edwards7110
BAL Mark Ingram6001
BAL J.K. Dobbins5102
BAL Justice Hill1010
BAL Patrick Ricard1000
BUF Zack Moss9001
BUF Devin Singletary7201
CAR Mike Davis11112
CAR Rodney Smith4000
CAR Alex Armah1001
CIN Giovani Bernard13223
CIN Samaje Perine8000
CIN Trayveon Williams5000
CHI Cordarrelle Patterson13111
CHI Artavis Pierce3000
CHI Ryan Nall3001
CHI Lamar Miller2000
CLE Kareem Hunt19413
CLE Nick Chubb18210
DEN Melvin Gordon12111
DEN Phillip Lindsay5000
DEN Royce Freeman2202
DET D'Andre Swift19200
DET Adrian Peterson5000
DET Kerryon Johnson1000
GB Aaron Jones18111
GB Jamaal Williams9303
GB Tyler Ervin2000
HOU Duke Johnson13211
HOU C.J. Prosise1000
IND Nyheim Hines18013
IND Jordan Wilkins6120
IND Jonathan Taylor5220
JAX James Robinson24302
JAX Dare Ogunbowale2001
LA Cam Akers9120
LA Darrell Henderson8010
LA Malcolm Brown4422
LAC Kalen Ballage19444
LAC Joshua Kelley7010
LAC Gabe Nabers1001
LV Josh Jacobs23201
LV Devontae Booker15200
MIA Salvon Ahmed20230
MIA DeAndre Washington2000
MIA Patrick Laird1100
MIN Dalvin Cook30410
MIN Alexander Mattison2000
MIN C.J. Ham1000
NE Damien Harris22010
NE Rex Burkhead8312
NE Jakob Johnson2000
NE James White1100
NO Alvin Kamara14244
NO Latavius Murray9000
NYG Wayne Gallman16340
NYG Alfred Morris8000
NYG Dion Lewis0202
NYG Elijhaa Penny0110
PHI Miles Sanders19103
PHI Boston Scott3001
PHI Corey Clement1010
PIT James Conner15000
PIT Benny Snell2100
SEA Alex Collins13002
SEA DeeJay Dallas4102
SEA Travis Homer2103
SF Jerick McKinnon17321
SF JaMycal Hasty5001
SF Austin Walter2000
SF Kyle Juszczyk1101
TB Ronald Jones24140
TB Leonard Fournette10131
TEN Derrick Henry20110
TEN D'Onta Foreman7110
TEN Jeremy McNichols4000
TEN Khari Blasingame1000
WAS J.D. McKissic176111
WAS Antonio Gibson15221
WAS Peyton Barber3000

 


Week 10 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

PlayerGarbage RateGarbage TouchTotal Touches
D'Onta Foreman75%68
Isaiah Wright67%46
Latavius Murray67%69
Samaje Perine63%58
Chase Claypool62%813
JuJu Smith-Schuster62%813
James Conner53%815
Corey Davis50%36
Jalen Guyton50%36
Taysom Hill50%48

 

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High Value RB Touches

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "High Value Touches", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.

PlayerHigh ValueInside 10TargetsCarriesOppsHigh Value %Last 4 Games
1. Christian McCaffrey13.03.010.018.028.046%1
2. Alvin Kamara11.00.510.513.023.547%2
3. Leonard Fournette8.52.06.513.019.544%2
4. J.D. McKissic7.30.07.35.312.758%3
5. Joe Mixon7.04.03.018.021.033%1
6. Myles Gaskin7.02.05.018.023.030%2
7. Dalvin Cook6.54.02.526.028.523%2
8. David Montgomery6.52.04.517.021.530%4
9. D'Andre Swift6.52.04.510.515.043%4
10. DeeJay Dallas6.32.73.78.312.053%3
11. Giovani Bernard6.32.34.012.016.040%3
12. Jamaal Williams6.02.04.013.017.035%3
13. Boston Scott5.72.03.79.713.343%3
14. Aaron Jones5.50.55.012.517.531%2
15. Justin Jackson5.50.05.511.016.533%2
16. James Robinson5.31.34.019.723.723%3
17. Ezekiel Elliott5.31.04.315.319.527%4
18. Clyde Edwards-Helaire5.01.04.011.315.333%4
19. Kalen Ballage5.02.03.015.018.028%1
20. Mike Davis4.80.84.09.813.835%4
21. Duke Johnson4.71.03.77.010.744%3
22. David Johnson4.72.32.311.714.033%3
23. Melvin Gordon4.70.74.010.314.333%3
24. Derrick Henry4.52.52.020.322.320%4
25. Tyler Ervin4.50.54.04.08.056%2
26. Josh Jacobs4.32.32.018.320.321%3
27. Joshua Kelley4.30.73.79.313.033%3
28. Jonathan Taylor4.31.33.09.712.734%3
29. Ronald Jones4.31.72.714.317.025%3
30. Chase Edmonds4.00.04.011.715.726%3
31. Carlos Hyde4.00.04.015.019.021%1
32. James Conner4.01.32.816.018.821%4
33. Jeff Wilson4.02.02.017.019.021%1
34. Kenyan Drake4.02.02.017.019.021%2
35. Kareem Hunt4.00.73.315.018.322%3
36. Todd Gurley4.01.82.320.022.318%4
37. Antonio Gibson3.70.73.011.714.725%3
38. Gus Edwards3.72.71.013.714.725%3
39. Wayne Gallman3.71.02.712.014.725%3
40. Jerick McKinnon3.50.82.86.08.840%4
41. Troymaine Pope3.50.03.55.59.039%2
42. Darrell Henderson3.32.01.312.313.724%3
43. Adrian Peterson3.31.32.09.811.828%4
44. Devin Singletary3.30.52.88.511.329%4
45. Chris Carson3.01.02.05.07.043%1
46. J.K. Dobbins3.00.32.712.014.720%3
47. Lamical Perine3.00.32.78.711.326%3
48. Raheem Mostert3.01.02.017.019.016%1
49. Zack Moss2.81.31.58.810.327%4
50. Malcolm Brown2.70.32.37.39.728%3
51. Brian Hill2.50.32.37.810.025%4
52. Devonta Freeman2.51.01.510.512.021%2
53. Latavius Murray2.50.52.09.511.522%2
54. Tony Pollard2.30.02.38.510.821%4
55. Corey Clement2.00.51.53.55.040%2
56. JaMycal Hasty2.00.81.38.59.821%4
57. Miles Sanders2.00.02.09.011.018%1
58. Phillip Lindsay2.00.51.511.513.015%4
59. Alexander Mattison1.71.00.78.39.019%3
60. Benny Snell1.71.30.33.74.042%3
61. Jordan Wilkins1.70.31.310.712.014%3
62. Le'Veon Bell1.70.31.35.36.725%3
63. Rex Burkhead1.70.01.75.06.725%3
64. Matt Breida1.50.51.05.06.025%2
65. Royce Freeman1.50.01.55.57.021%2
66. Damien Harris1.30.70.710.711.312%3
67. Frank Gore1.30.01.310.712.011%3
68. Samaje Perine1.30.70.74.04.729%3
69. Travis Homer1.30.31.03.34.331%3
70. Cam Akers1.00.01.09.010.010%1
71. Devontae Booker1.00.01.05.36.316%3
72. Jordan Howard1.01.00.010.010.010%1
73. Ke'Shawn Vaughn1.00.01.05.06.017%1
74. LeSean McCoy1.00.01.04.05.020%1
75. Alfred Morris0.50.00.58.59.06%2
76. Darwin Thompson0.50.00.53.54.013%2
77. Peyton Barber0.50.00.57.07.57%2
78. AJ Dillon0.30.00.35.05.36%3
79. D'Onta Foreman0.00.00.05.05.00%2
80. Dontrelle Hilliard0.00.00.04.04.00%1
81. Mark Ingram0.00.00.05.05.00%1
82. Salvon Ahmed0.00.00.07.07.00%1

 


Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

PlayerNeutralTrailingLeadingPositive
MIN Dalvin Cook53%48%56% 
JAX James Robinson47%48%NA 
CLE Kareem Hunt42%30%40% 
DAL Ezekiel Elliott40%21%37%Positive
TEN Derrick Henry39%34%41% 
LV Josh Jacobs39%13%51%Positive
NO Alvin Kamara34%NA25% 
LA Darrell Henderson34%0%18%Positive
ATL Todd Gurley34%6%39%Positive
DET D'Andre Swift34%21%32% 
PHI Boston Scott33%7%23%Positive
ARI Chase Edmonds32%16%33%Positive
HOU Duke Johnson32%8%39%Positive
NE Damien Harris31%22%31% 
WAS Antonio Gibson31%19%36%Positive
NYJ Frank Gore30%16%32%Positive
PIT James Conner28%18%32% 
CIN Giovani Bernard27%26%28% 
NYG Wayne Gallman26%NA29% 
TB Ronald Jones25%21%27% 
CAR Mike Davis25%20%27% 
BUF Devin Singletary24%22%12% 
TB Leonard Fournette24%21%23% 
SF Jerick McKinnon23%20%13% 
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire23%NA17% 
BAL Gus Edwards23%12%21% 
CHI Cordarrelle Patterson22%6%NA 
NYJ Lamical Perine22%22%26% 
DEN Melvin Gordon21%22%12% 
BAL Lamar Jackson21%14%29%Positive
IND Jordan Wilkins20%13%35%Positive
DET Adrian Peterson19%13%16% 
IND Jonathan Taylor19%15%13% 
NE Rex Burkhead18%19%16% 
BAL J.K. Dobbins17%17%29% 
SF JaMycal Hasty16%8%21% 
NO Latavius Murray16%NA19% 
WAS J.D. McKissic16%35%11% 
BUF Josh Allen15%7%15% 
LAC Joshua Kelley15%15%18% 

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 11

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks