Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "Situational RB Touches" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.
Week 13 Situational RB Touches
One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.
| Player | Early Downs | Third Down | Inside 10 | Passing Situation Targets |
| ARI Kenyan Drake | 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| ARI Chase Edmonds | 9 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| ATL Ito Smith | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ATL Todd Gurley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| ATL Brian Hill | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAL J.K. Dobbins | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| BAL Gus Edwards | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BAL Mark Ingram | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BAL Patrick Ricard | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| BAL Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BUF Devin Singletary | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| BUF Zack Moss | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| CHI David Montgomery | 19 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CIN Giovani Bernard | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CIN Samaje Perine | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CLE Nick Chubb | 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| CLE Kareem Hunt | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| CLE D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL Ezekiel Elliott | 20 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| DAL Tony Pollard | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| DET Adrian Peterson | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| DET Kerryon Johnson | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| GB Aaron Jones | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| GB Jamaal Williams | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| HOU David Johnson | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| HOU Duke Johnson | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| IND Jonathan Taylor | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| IND Nyheim Hines | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| IND Jordan Wilkins | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| JAX James Robinson | 24 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| JAX Dare Ogunbowale | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| LA Cam Akers | 17 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| LA Darrell Henderson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LA Malcolm Brown | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LAC Austin Ekeler | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| LAC Kalen Ballage | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| LAC Joshua Kelley | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LV Devontae Booker | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LV Jalen Richard | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| LV Theo Riddick | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MIA Myles Gaskin | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| MIA Patrick Laird | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| MIN Dalvin Cook | 35 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| MIN Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MIN C.J. Ham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NE Damien Harris | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| NE Sony Michel | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| NE James White | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| NE Jakob Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NO Alvin Kamara | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| NO Latavius Murray | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| NYG Wayne Gallman | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYG Alfred Morris | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| NYG Dion Lewis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| NYG Elijhaa Penny | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYJ Ty Johnson | 21 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| NYJ Josh Adams | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| NYJ Frank Gore | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PHI Miles Sanders | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| PHI Jordan Howard | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PHI Boston Scott | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT Benny Snell | 8 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| PIT Jaylen Samuels | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT Anthony McFarland | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SEA Chris Carson | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| SEA Carlos Hyde | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| SEA DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| SF Jeff Wilson | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| SF Raheem Mostert | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| SF Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| SF Tevin Coleman | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| TEN Derrick Henry | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| TEN Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| WAS J.D. McKissic | 14 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| WAS Peyton Barber | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| WAS Antonio Gibson | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Week 13 Garbage Time Eaters
Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.
| Player | Garbage Rate | Garbage Touch | Total Touches |
| Anthony Firkser | 100% | 7 | 7 |
| Jalen Hurts | 100% | 5 | 5 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 100% | 6 | 6 |
| Sony Michel | 91% | 10 | 11 |
| Mike Williams | 89% | 8 | 9 |
| Corey Davis | 83% | 10 | 12 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 83% | 5 | 6 |
| Keenan Allen | 82% | 9 | 11 |
| Greg Ward | 80% | 4 | 5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 76% | 13 | 17 |
| A.J. Brown | 71% | 5 | 7 |
| Jalen Guyton | 71% | 5 | 7 |
| Deebo Samuel | 70% | 7 | 10 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 67% | 4 | 6 |
| Nick Chubb | 63% | 12 | 19 |
| Austin Ekeler | 59% | 10 | 17 |
| Derrick Henry | 59% | 10 | 17 |
| Jamaal Williams | 57% | 4 | 7 |
| Kalen Ballage | 55% | 6 | 11 |
| Michael Gallup | 55% | 6 | 11 |
| Amari Cooper | 50% | 5 | 10 |
| Aaron Jones | 50% | 9 | 18 |
| Patrick Laird | 50% | 3 | 6 |
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Golden Opportunities
As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "Golden Opportunities", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by golden opportunities per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 golden opportunities per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "Golden Opp %" is the percentage of opportunities that are golden opportunities. The higher, the better for all categories.
| Player | Golden Opps | Inside 10 | Targets | Carries | Opps | Golden Opp % | Last 4 Games |
| 1. Austin Ekeler | 14.5 | 2.0 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 23.5 | 62% | 2 |
| 2. J.D. McKissic | 8.3 | 0.5 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 12.8 | 65% | 4 |
| 3. Dalvin Cook | 8.0 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 26.8 | 32.3 | 25% | 4 |
| 4. Kalen Ballage | 8.0 | 1.7 | 6.3 | 13.7 | 20.0 | 40% | 3 |
| 5. Myles Gaskin | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 23.0 | 35% | 1 |
| 6. Nyheim Hines | 7.5 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 14.3 | 53% | 4 |
| 7. James Robinson | 6.8 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 20.0 | 24.8 | 27% | 4 |
| 8. Kenyan Drake | 6.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 14.8 | 18.0 | 38% | 4 |
| 9. David Montgomery | 6.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 34% | 2 |
| 10. Mike Davis | 6.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 13.7 | 18.0 | 35% | 3 |
| 11. Ezekiel Elliott | 6.0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 16.3 | 20.0 | 30% | 3 |
| 12. Salvon Ahmed | 6.0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 16.5 | 20.0 | 30% | 2 |
| 13. Antonio Gibson | 5.5 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 12.8 | 16.0 | 34% | 4 |
| 14. Rex Burkhead | 5.5 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 61% | 2 |
| 15. Leonard Fournette | 5.3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 57% | 3 |
| 16. Giovani Bernard | 5.3 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 39% | 4 |
| 17. Alvin Kamara | 5.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 11.8 | 15.3 | 33% | 4 |
| 18. Chase Edmonds | 5.0 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 50% | 4 |
| 19. D'Andre Swift | 5.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 16.0 | 21.0 | 24% | 1 |
| 20. Wayne Gallman | 5.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 23% | 3 |
| 21. Ty Johnson | 4.7 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 41% | 3 |
| 22. Aaron Jones | 4.5 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 13.8 | 17.5 | 26% | 4 |
| 23. Chris Carson | 4.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 10.5 | 14.5 | 31% | 2 |
| 24. Duke Johnson | 4.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 12.8 | 35% | 4 |
| 25. Jeff Wilson | 4.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 38% | 2 |
| 26. Devin Singletary | 4.3 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 29% | 3 |
| 27. Benny Snell | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 41% | 4 |
| 28. Kareem Hunt | 4.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 14.0 | 16.5 | 26% | 4 |
| 29. Carlos Hyde | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.3 | 13.3 | 30% | 3 |
| 30. Josh Jacobs | 4.0 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 15.0 | 17.7 | 23% | 3 |
| 31. Jerick McKinnon | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 30% | 2 |
| 32. Miles Sanders | 3.8 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 11.8 | 15.3 | 25% | 4 |
| 33. Jonathan Taylor | 3.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 14.0 | 17.0 | 22% | 3 |
| 34. Cam Akers | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 30% | 4 |
| 35. DeAndre Washington | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 35% | 2 |
| 36. Le'Veon Bell | 3.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 34% | 3 |
| 37. Derrick Henry | 3.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 22.3 | 24.5 | 13% | 4 |
| 38. Kerryon Johnson | 3.3 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 39% | 4 |
| 39. David Johnson | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 25% | 1 |
| 40. Ito Smith | 3.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 32% | 3 |
| 41. Jalen Richard | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 60% | 1 |
| 42. Nick Chubb | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 19.0 | 20.3 | 15% | 4 |
| 43. Ronald Jones | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 14.0 | 15.7 | 19% | 3 |
| 44. Raheem Mostert | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 12.5 | 14.0 | 21% | 2 |
| 45. Adrian Peterson | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 24% | 4 |
| 46. Frank Gore | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 21% | 3 |
| 47. Devontae Booker | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 20% | 4 |
| 48. Damien Harris | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 15.8 | 16.5 | 15% | 4 |
| 49. Darrell Henderson | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 28% | 4 |
| 50. James Conner | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 13.0 | 15.5 | 16% | 2 |
| 51. Jordan Wilkins | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 32% | 4 |
| 52. J.K. Dobbins | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 20% | 3 |
| 53. Zack Moss | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 29% | 3 |
| 54. Joshua Kelley | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 41% | 4 |
| 55. Jamaal Williams | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 21% | 4 |
| 56. Latavius Murray | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 18% | 4 |
| 57. Malcolm Brown | 2.3 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 41% | 4 |
| 58. Melvin Gordon | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 13.3 | 14.3 | 16% | 4 |
| 59. Alex Collins | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 15% | 1 |
| 60. Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 12.5 | 14.0 | 14% | 2 |
| 61. Jeremy McNichols | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 40% | 4 |
| 62. Lamical Perine | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 22% | 1 |
| 63. Sony Michel | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 18% | 1 |
| 64. Todd Gurley | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 21% | 2 |
| 65. Alfred Morris | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 19% | 3 |
| 66. Gus Edwards | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 18% | 4 |
| 67. Samaje Perine | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 26% | 4 |
| 68. Matt Breida | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 17% | 2 |
| 69. Mark Ingram | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 19% | 3 |
| 70. Royce Freeman | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 17% | 2 |
| 71. Tony Pollard | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 15% | 3 |
| 72. Peyton Barber | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8% | 4 |
| 73. Anthony McFarland | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 17% | 3 |
| 74. D'Onta Foreman | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 15% | 3 |
| 75. Rodney Smith | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 10% | 3 |
| 76. Josh Adams | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 11% | 2 |
| 77. Phillip Lindsay | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 4% | 4 |
| 78. Brian Hill | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4% | 3 |
| 79. Bo Scarbrough | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0% | 1 |
| 80. Jordan Howard | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0% | 1 |
Game-Script Touch Shares
Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.
Note: This does not include Week 13 SNF, MNF, and TNF yet.
| Player | Neutral | Trailing | Leading | Game Script Bump |
| TEN Derrick Henry | 55% | 25% | 42% | Positive |
| MIN Dalvin Cook | 54% | 31% | 54% | Positive |
| JAX James Robinson | 51% | 34% | 29% | |
| WAS Antonio Gibson | 43% | 20% | 32% | |
| NE Damien Harris | 42% | 13% | 26% | |
| CLE Nick Chubb | 38% | NA | 32% | |
| GB Aaron Jones | 35% | NA | 25% | |
| ARI Kenyan Drake | 34% | 27% | 30% | |
| NYG Wayne Gallman | 33% | NA | 32% | |
| PHI Miles Sanders | 33% | 26% | NA | |
| NYJ Frank Gore | 33% | 26% | NA | |
| CIN Giovani Bernard | 30% | 22% | NA | |
| CAR Mike Davis | 30% | 34% | 30% | |
| IND Nyheim Hines | 26% | 24% | 9% | |
| DET Kerryon Johnson | 26% | 14% | 2% | |
| NO Alvin Kamara | 25% | NA | 24% | |
| LA Cam Akers | 24% | 11% | 22% | |
| LV Devontae Booker | 24% | 16% | 25% | |
| NYJ Ty Johnson | 22% | 16% | NA | |
| DET Adrian Peterson | 21% | 19% | 15% | |
| CHI Cordarrelle Patterson | 21% | 6% | 25% | |
| DEN Phillip Lindsay | 20% | 13% | 19% | |
| DEN Melvin Gordon | 19% | 35% | 23% | |
| CLE Kareem Hunt | 18% | NA | 31% | |
| ARI Chase Edmonds | 18% | 14% | 25% | |
| LA Darrell Henderson | 18% | 14% | 8% | |
| NO Latavius Murray | 16% | NA | 23% | |
| HOU Deshaun Watson | 16% | 11% | 13% |
Week 14 Fantasy Usage Model
1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)
2. Targets Aren't Created Equal (Monday Night)
3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)
4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)
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