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Fantasy Usage Model

Situational RB Touches: A Week 13 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: December 9, 2020, 12:46 am ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "Situational RB Touches" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches. 


Week 13 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player Early Downs Third Down Inside 10 Passing Situation Targets
ARI Kenyan Drake 13 0 3 1
ARI Chase Edmonds 9 3 1 6
ATL Ito Smith 9 1 0 1
ATL Todd Gurley 7 2 1 0
ATL Brian Hill 5 0 0 0
BAL J.K. Dobbins 11 0 2 0
BAL Gus Edwards 6 1 0 0
BAL Mark Ingram 6 1 0 0
BAL Patrick Ricard 2 0 1 0
BAL Justice Hill 0 1 0 1
BUF Devin Singletary 19 2 1 0
BUF Zack Moss 3 1 1 0
CHI David Montgomery 19 1 1 2
CIN Giovani Bernard 14 0 0 0
CIN Samaje Perine 3 0 0 0
CLE Nick Chubb 17 2 3 0
CLE Kareem Hunt 13 4 1 0
CLE D'Ernest Johnson 1 0 0 0
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 20 4 3 0
DAL Tony Pollard 6 3 0 1
DET Adrian Peterson 16 1 4 1
DET Kerryon Johnson 6 0 1 3
GB Aaron Jones 16 2 0 1
GB Jamaal Williams 7 0 0 1
HOU David Johnson 12 0 1 0
HOU Duke Johnson 7 1 1 4
IND Jonathan Taylor 14 1 0 1
IND Nyheim Hines 7 1 2 1
IND Jordan Wilkins 6 1 0 1
JAX James Robinson 24 0 3 2
JAX Dare Ogunbowale 4 0 1 0
LA Cam Akers 17 4 7 0
LA Darrell Henderson 6 0 0 0
LA Malcolm Brown 3 1 0 1
LAC Austin Ekeler 15 2 0 4
LAC Kalen Ballage 7 3 0 2
LAC Joshua Kelley 2 0 0 0
LV Devontae Booker 17 1 0 0
LV Jalen Richard 5 0 2 0
LV Theo Riddick 3 1 0 1
MIA Myles Gaskin 19 4 6 0
MIA Patrick Laird 6 0 0 2
MIN Dalvin Cook 35 6 3 5
MIN Ameer Abdullah 2 1 0 1
MIN C.J. Ham 1 0 0 0
NE Damien Harris 17 0 2 0
NE Sony Michel 9 2 1 0
NE James White 2 2 1 2
NE Jakob Johnson 1 0 0 0
NO Alvin Kamara 17 1 0 1
NO Latavius Murray 6 1 0 1
NYG Wayne Gallman 16 0 0 0
NYG Alfred Morris 9 0 3 0
NYG Dion Lewis 2 1 0 0
NYG Elijhaa Penny 2 0 0 0
NYJ Ty Johnson 21 3 4 2
NYJ Josh Adams 8 0 1 0
NYJ Frank Gore 1 0 0 0
PHI Miles Sanders 10 1 0 1
PHI Jordan Howard 4 0 0 0
PHI Boston Scott 3 1 0 1
PIT Benny Snell 8 2 5 0
PIT Jaylen Samuels 5 0 0 0
PIT Anthony McFarland 4 0 0 0
SEA Chris Carson 16 2 0 2
SEA Carlos Hyde 5 0 0 2
SEA DeeJay Dallas 2 1 0 2
SF Jeff Wilson 10 1 4 2
SF Raheem Mostert 10 0 2 1
SF Kyle Juszczyk 2 1 2 0
SF Tevin Coleman 2 0 1 0
TEN Derrick Henry 14 1 0 0
TEN Jeremy McNichols 4 2 1 1
WAS J.D. McKissic 14 0 1 6
WAS Peyton Barber 12 2 1 0
WAS Antonio Gibson 2 0 0 0

 


Week 13 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player Garbage Rate Garbage Touch Total Touches
Anthony Firkser 100% 7 7
Jalen Hurts 100% 5 5
Jeremy McNichols 100% 6 6
Sony Michel 91% 10 11
Mike Williams 89% 8 9
Corey Davis 83% 10 12
Jakobi Meyers 83% 5 6
Keenan Allen 82% 9 11
Greg Ward 80% 4 5
Kareem Hunt 76% 13 17
A.J. Brown 71% 5 7
Jalen Guyton 71% 5 7
Deebo Samuel 70% 7 10
Kendrick Bourne 67% 4 6
Nick Chubb 63% 12 19
Austin Ekeler 59% 10 17
Derrick Henry 59% 10 17
Jamaal Williams 57% 4 7
Kalen Ballage 55% 6 11
Michael Gallup 55% 6 11
Amari Cooper 50% 5 10
Aaron Jones 50% 9 18
Patrick Laird 50% 3 6

 

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Golden Opportunities

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "Golden Opportunities", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by golden opportunities per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 golden opportunities per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "Golden Opp %" is the percentage of opportunities that are golden opportunities. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player Golden Opps Inside 10 Targets Carries Opps Golden Opp % Last 4 Games
1. Austin Ekeler 14.5 2.0 12.5 11.0 23.5 62% 2
2. J.D. McKissic 8.3 0.5 7.8 5.0 12.8 65% 4
3. Dalvin Cook 8.0 2.5 5.5 26.8 32.3 25% 4
4. Kalen Ballage 8.0 1.7 6.3 13.7 20.0 40% 3
5. Myles Gaskin 8.0 6.0 2.0 21.0 23.0 35% 1
6. Nyheim Hines 7.5 1.8 5.8 8.5 14.3 53% 4
7. James Robinson 6.8 2.0 4.8 20.0 24.8 27% 4
8. Kenyan Drake 6.8 3.5 3.3 14.8 18.0 38% 4
9. David Montgomery 6.5 1.5 5.0 14.0 19.0 34% 2
10. Mike Davis 6.3 2.0 4.3 13.7 18.0 35% 3
11. Ezekiel Elliott 6.0 2.3 3.7 16.3 20.0 30% 3
12. Salvon Ahmed 6.0 2.5 3.5 16.5 20.0 30% 2
13. Antonio Gibson 5.5 2.3 3.3 12.8 16.0 34% 4
14. Rex Burkhead 5.5 1.5 4.0 5.0 9.0 61% 2
15. Leonard Fournette 5.3 2.0 3.3 6.0 9.3 57% 3
16. Giovani Bernard 5.3 1.0 4.3 9.3 13.5 39% 4
17. Alvin Kamara 5.0 1.5 3.5 11.8 15.3 33% 4
18. Chase Edmonds 5.0 0.5 4.5 5.5 10.0 50% 4
19. D'Andre Swift 5.0 0.0 5.0 16.0 21.0 24% 1
20. Wayne Gallman 5.0 2.7 2.3 19.3 21.7 23% 3
21. Ty Johnson 4.7 1.3 3.3 8.0 11.3 41% 3
22. Aaron Jones 4.5 0.8 3.8 13.8 17.5 26% 4
23. Chris Carson 4.5 0.5 4.0 10.5 14.5 31% 2
24. Duke Johnson 4.5 0.5 4.0 8.8 12.8 35% 4
25. Jeff Wilson 4.5 2.0 2.5 9.5 12.0 38% 2
26. Devin Singletary 4.3 0.3 4.0 11.0 15.0 29% 3
27. Benny Snell 4.3 2.5 1.8 8.5 10.3 41% 4
28. Kareem Hunt 4.3 1.8 2.5 14.0 16.5 26% 4
29. Carlos Hyde 4.0 1.0 3.0 10.3 13.3 30% 3
30. Josh Jacobs 4.0 1.3 2.7 15.0 17.7 23% 3
31. Jerick McKinnon 4.0 1.0 3.0 10.5 13.5 30% 2
32. Miles Sanders 3.8 0.3 3.5 11.8 15.3 25% 4
33. Jonathan Taylor 3.7 0.7 3.0 14.0 17.0 22% 3
34. Cam Akers 3.5 3.0 0.5 11.3 11.8 30% 4
35. DeAndre Washington 3.5 1.0 2.5 7.5 10.0 35% 2
36. Le'Veon Bell 3.3 1.3 2.0 7.7 9.7 34% 3
37. Derrick Henry 3.3 1.0 2.3 22.3 24.5 13% 4
38. Kerryon Johnson 3.3 0.3 3.0 5.3 8.3 39% 4
39. David Johnson 3.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 12.0 25% 1
40. Ito Smith 3.0 0.7 2.3 7.0 9.3 32% 3
41. Jalen Richard 3.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 60% 1
42. Nick Chubb 3.0 1.8 1.3 19.0 20.3 15% 4
43. Ronald Jones 3.0 1.3 1.7 14.0 15.7 19% 3
44. Raheem Mostert 3.0 1.5 1.5 12.5 14.0 21% 2
45. Adrian Peterson 2.8 2.0 0.8 10.5 11.3 24% 4
46. Frank Gore 2.7 1.0 1.7 11.3 13.0 21% 3
47. Devontae Booker 2.5 0.5 2.0 10.5 12.5 20% 4
48. Damien Harris 2.5 1.8 0.8 15.8 16.5 15% 4
49. Darrell Henderson 2.5 0.5 2.0 7.0 9.0 28% 4
50. James Conner 2.5 0.0 2.5 13.0 15.5 16% 2
51. Jordan Wilkins 2.5 0.5 2.0 5.8 7.8 32% 4
52. J.K. Dobbins 2.3 1.0 1.3 10.3 11.7 20% 3
53. Zack Moss 2.3 0.7 1.7 6.3 8.0 29% 3
54. Joshua Kelley 2.3 1.3 1.0 4.5 5.5 41% 4
55. Jamaal Williams 2.3 0.3 2.0 8.8 10.8 21% 4
56. Latavius Murray 2.3 1.0 1.3 11.3 12.5 18% 4
57. Malcolm Brown 2.3 0.5 1.8 3.8 5.5 41% 4
58. Melvin Gordon 2.3 1.3 1.0 13.3 14.3 16% 4
59. Alex Collins 2.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 13.0 15% 1
60. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2.0 0.5 1.5 12.5 14.0 14% 2
61. Jeremy McNichols 2.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 5.0 40% 4
62. Lamical Perine 2.0 1.0 1.0 8.0 9.0 22% 1
63. Sony Michel 2.0 1.0 1.0 10.0 11.0 18% 1
64. Todd Gurley 2.0 0.5 1.5 8.0 9.5 21% 2
65. Alfred Morris 1.3 1.0 0.3 6.7 7.0 19% 3
66. Gus Edwards 1.3 0.8 0.5 6.5 7.0 18% 4
67. Samaje Perine 1.3 0.3 1.0 3.8 4.8 26% 4
68. Matt Breida 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 17% 2
69. Mark Ingram 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.3 19% 3
70. Royce Freeman 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 17% 2
71. Tony Pollard 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.7 6.7 15% 3
72. Peyton Barber 0.8 0.5 0.3 8.8 9.0 8% 4
73. Anthony McFarland 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.0 17% 3
74. D'Onta Foreman 0.7 0.3 0.3 4.0 4.3 15% 3
75. Rodney Smith 0.7 0.0 0.7 6.0 6.7 10% 3
76. Josh Adams 0.5 0.5 0.0 4.5 4.5 11% 2
77. Phillip Lindsay 0.5 0.0 0.5 10.8 11.3 4% 4
78. Brian Hill 0.3 0.0 0.3 7.3 7.7 4% 3
79. Bo Scarbrough 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 0% 1
80. Jordan Howard 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0% 1

 


Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Note: This does not include Week 13 SNF, MNF, and TNF yet.

Player Neutral Trailing Leading Game Script Bump
TEN Derrick Henry 55% 25% 42% Positive
MIN Dalvin Cook 54% 31% 54% Positive
JAX James Robinson 51% 34% 29%  
WAS Antonio Gibson 43% 20% 32%  
NE Damien Harris 42% 13% 26%  
CLE Nick Chubb 38% NA 32%  
GB Aaron Jones 35% NA 25%  
ARI Kenyan Drake 34% 27% 30%  
NYG Wayne Gallman 33% NA 32%  
PHI Miles Sanders 33% 26% NA  
NYJ Frank Gore 33% 26% NA  
CIN Giovani Bernard 30% 22% NA  
CAR Mike Davis 30% 34% 30%  
IND Nyheim Hines 26% 24% 9%  
DET Kerryon Johnson 26% 14% 2%  
NO Alvin Kamara 25% NA 24%  
LA Cam Akers 24% 11% 22%  
LV Devontae Booker 24% 16% 25%  
NYJ Ty Johnson 22% 16% NA  
DET Adrian Peterson 21% 19% 15%  
CHI Cordarrelle Patterson 21% 6% 25%  
DEN Phillip Lindsay 20% 13% 19%  
DEN Melvin Gordon 19% 35% 23%  
CLE Kareem Hunt 18% NA 31%  
ARI Chase Edmonds 18% 14% 25%  
LA Darrell Henderson 18% 14% 8%  
NO Latavius Murray 16% NA 23%  
HOU Deshaun Watson 16% 11% 13%  

 


Week 14 Fantasy Usage Model

1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)

2. Targets Aren't Created Equal (Monday Night)

3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

Follow me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).