Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "Situational RB Touches" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.
Week 14 Situational RB Touches
One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.
| Player | Early Downs | Third Down | Inside 10 | Passing Situation Targets |
| ARI Kenyan Drake | 22 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| ARI Chase Edmonds | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| ATL Ito Smith | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL Todd Gurley | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ATL Keith Smith | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL Brian Hill | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BAL J.K. Dobbins | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| BAL Gus Edwards | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAL Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BUF Zack Moss | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| BUF Devin Singletary | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR Mike Davis | 15 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| CAR Rodney Smith | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR Alex Armah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| CAR Trenton Cannon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHI David Montgomery | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| CIN Trayveon Williams | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| CIN Samaje Perine | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| CIN Giovani Bernard | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| CLE Nick Chubb | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| CLE Kareem Hunt | 11 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| DAL Ezekiel Elliott | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| DAL Tony Pollard | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| DEN Melvin Gordon | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| DEN Phillip Lindsay | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DET D'Andre Swift | 12 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| DET Adrian Peterson | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| DET Kerryon Johnson | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| GB Aaron Jones | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| GB Jamaal Williams | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| HOU Buddy Howell | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU Duke Johnson | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| HOU C.J. Prosise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| IND Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| IND Nyheim Hines | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| IND Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| JAX James Robinson | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JAX Devine Ozigbo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JAX Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KC Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| KC Anthony Sherman | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LA Cam Akers | 26 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| LA Darrell Henderson | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LA Malcolm Brown | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LAC Austin Ekeler | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LAC Kalen Ballage | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| LAC Justin Jackson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LAC Gabe Nabers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LV Josh Jacobs | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| LV Devontae Booker | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LV Jalen Richard | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIA DeAndre Washington | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| MIA Patrick Laird | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MIN Dalvin Cook | 22 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| MIN Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MIN Mike Boone | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIN C.J. Ham | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| NE Damien Harris | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| NE Sony Michel | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| NE James White | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| NO Alvin Kamara | 19 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| NO Latavius Murray | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYG Wayne Gallman | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NYG Alfred Morris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYG Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| NYJ Frank Gore | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NYJ Ty Johnson | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYJ Josh Adams | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| PHI Miles Sanders | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| PHI Boston Scott | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT James Conner | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT Jaylen Samuels | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT Benny Snell | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SEA Chris Carson | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SEA Carlos Hyde | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| SEA DeeJay Dallas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SF Raheem Mostert | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SF Jeff Wilson | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| SF Kyle Juszczyk | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| TB Ronald Jones | 19 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| TB LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| TB Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TEN Derrick Henry | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| TEN Jeremy McNichols | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| WAS Peyton Barber | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| WAS J.D. McKissic | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Week 14 Garbage Time Eaters
Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.
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Golden Opportunities
As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "Golden Opportunities", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by golden opportunities per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 golden opportunities per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "Golden Opp %" is the percentage of opportunities that are golden opportunities. The higher, the better for all categories.
| Player | Golden Opps | Inside 10 | Targets | Carries | Opps | Golden Opp % | Last 4 Games |
| 1. Austin Ekeler | 13.0 | 1.7 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 23.7 | 55% | 3 |
| 2. Dalvin Cook | 8.3 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 24.8 | 30.3 | 27% | 4 |
| 3. D'Andre Swift | 8.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 67% | 1 |
| 4. Myles Gaskin | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 23.0 | 35% | 1 |
| 5. Salvon Ahmed | 8.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 44% | 1 |
| 6. Mike Davis | 7.3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 15.0 | 19.7 | 37% | 3 |
| 7. Kenyan Drake | 7.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 16.5 | 19.8 | 37% | 4 |
| 8. Nyheim Hines | 7.3 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 12.5 | 58% | 4 |
| 9. James Robinson | 6.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 17.3 | 21.8 | 30% | 4 |
| 10. David Montgomery | 6.0 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 13.0 | 17.7 | 34% | 3 |
| 11. DeAndre Washington | 6.0 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 13.0 | 17.5 | 34% | 2 |
| 12. Kalen Ballage | 5.7 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 38% | 3 |
| 13. Chase Edmonds | 5.5 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 54% | 4 |
| 14. Ezekiel Elliott | 5.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 15.3 | 18.8 | 29% | 4 |
| 15. J.D. McKissic | 5.5 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 51% | 4 |
| 16. Antonio Gibson | 5.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 12.7 | 15.7 | 34% | 3 |
| 17. Alvin Kamara | 5.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 12.5 | 16.5 | 30% | 4 |
| 18. Chris Carson | 5.0 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 11.0 | 15.3 | 33% | 3 |
| 19. Leonard Fournette | 5.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 59% | 2 |
| 20. Rex Burkhead | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 71% | 1 |
| 21. Cam Akers | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 16.0 | 17.3 | 28% | 4 |
| 22. James White | 4.8 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 66% | 4 |
| 23. Josh Jacobs | 4.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 12.3 | 15.3 | 30% | 3 |
| 24. Jeff Wilson | 4.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 37% | 3 |
| 25. Duke Johnson | 4.5 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 39% | 4 |
| 26. Wayne Gallman | 4.3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 17.3 | 20.3 | 21% | 3 |
| 27. Benny Snell | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 41% | 4 |
| 28. Miles Sanders | 4.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 11.5 | 15.0 | 28% | 4 |
| 29. Carlos Hyde | 4.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 11.5 | 13.8 | 29% | 4 |
| 30. Kareem Hunt | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 12.3 | 14.3 | 28% | 3 |
| 31. Aaron Jones | 3.8 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 14.3 | 17.3 | 22% | 4 |
| 32. Giovani Bernard | 3.8 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 33% | 4 |
| 33. Kerryon Johnson | 3.8 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 43% | 4 |
| 34. Jonathan Taylor | 3.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 18.3 | 21.3 | 17% | 3 |
| 35. Ty Johnson | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 33% | 4 |
| 36. Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3.3 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 13.7 | 16.7 | 20% | 3 |
| 37. Nick Chubb | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 19.0 | 20.3 | 16% | 3 |
| 38. Raheem Mostert | 3.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 13.0 | 15.3 | 22% | 3 |
| 39. Derrick Henry | 3.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 24.0 | 26.3 | 12% | 4 |
| 40. Le'Veon Bell | 3.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 38% | 4 |
| 41. Adrian Peterson | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 27% | 4 |
| 42. Devontae Booker | 3.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 30% | 4 |
| 43. Damien Harris | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 21% | 4 |
| 44. Devin Singletary | 3.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 12.0 | 14.7 | 20% | 3 |
| 45. David Johnson | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 25% | 1 |
| 46. Melvin Gordon | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 18% | 4 |
| 47. Joshua Kelley | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 53% | 3 |
| 48. Ronald Jones | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 12.3 | 14.0 | 19% | 3 |
| 49. Ito Smith | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 25% | 4 |
| 50. J.K. Dobbins | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 18% | 2 |
| 51. Justice Hill | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 42% | 2 |
| 52. Latavius Murray | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 22% | 4 |
| 53. Todd Gurley | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 25% | 3 |
| 54. Zack Moss | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 24% | 3 |
| 55. Frank Gore | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 19% | 4 |
| 56. Jeremy McNichols | 2.3 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 32% | 4 |
| 57. Jordan Wilkins | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 36% | 4 |
| 58. Buddy Howell | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 15% | 1 |
| 59. Darrell Henderson | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 27% | 4 |
| 60. Lamical Perine | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 22% | 1 |
| 61. Sony Michel | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 21% | 2 |
| 62. Trayveon Williams | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 24% | 2 |
| 63. Jamaal Williams | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 17% | 4 |
| 64. Tony Pollard | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 21% | 4 |
| 65. James Conner | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 12% | 2 |
| 66. Peyton Barber | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 13% | 4 |
| 67. Samaje Perine | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 26% | 4 |
| 68. Alfred Morris | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 25% | 3 |
| 69. Josh Adams | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 18% | 3 |
| 70. LeSean McCoy | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 20% | 1 |
| 71. Matt Breida | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 17% | 2 |
| 72. Rodney Smith | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 15% | 3 |
| 73. Phillip Lindsay | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 6% | 4 |
| 74. Anthony McFarland | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 17% | 3 |
| 75. Gus Edwards | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 11% | 3 |
| 76. Brian Hill | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 8% | 4 |
| 77. Mark Ingram | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 11% | 2 |
| 78. Bo Scarbrough | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0% | 1 |
| 79. Jordan Howard | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0% | 1 |
| 80. Royce Freeman | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0% | 1 |
Game-Script Touch Shares
Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.
| Player | Neutral | Trailing | Leading | Game Script Bump |
| TEN Derrick Henry | 57% | 28% | 42% | |
| MIN Dalvin Cook | 57% | 30% | 48% | Positive |
| JAX James Robinson | 51% | 25% | 29% | |
| NE Damien Harris | 40% | 19% | 23% | |
| CLE Nick Chubb | 40% | NA | 30% | |
| DAL Ezekiel Elliott | 39% | 28% | 21% | |
| ARI Kenyan Drake | 39% | 27% | 30% | |
| CHI David Montgomery | 39% | 29% | 28% | |
| SF Raheem Mostert | 36% | 14% | 22% | |
| GB Aaron Jones | 36% | NA | 25% | |
| NYJ Frank Gore | 35% | 22% | NA | |
| PHI Miles Sanders | 33% | 20% | 32% | |
| NYG Wayne Gallman | 32% | 41% | 37% | |
| TB Ronald Jones | 30% | 14% | 38% | |
| CAR Mike Davis | 29% | 33% | 29% | |
| CIN Giovani Bernard | 29% | 13% | NA | |
| NO Alvin Kamara | 29% | 34% | 24% | |
| DEN Phillip Lindsay | 28% | 10% | 27% | |
| DEN Melvin Gordon | 24% | 36% | 26% | |
| IND Nyheim Hines | 23% | 20% | 11% | |
| BUF Devin Singletary | 23% | NA | 24% | |
| SEA Carlos Hyde | 23% | 5% | 25% | Positive |
| DET Kerryon Johnson | 23% | 13% | NA | |
| DET Adrian Peterson | 21% | 16% | NA | |
| NYJ Ty Johnson | 21% | 17% | NA | |
| LA Cam Akers | 20% | 13% | 38% | Positive |
| KC Le'Veon Bell | 19% | 0% | 9% | |
| WAS J.D. McKissic | 18% | 29% | 13% | Negative |
| ATL Ito Smith | 17% | 11% | 24% | |
| NO Latavius Murray | 17% | 7% | 24% | |
| LV Devontae Booker | 16% | 14% | 33% | |
| CAR Rodney Smith | 16% | 8% | 9% | |
| BAL Gus Edwards | 15% | 8% | 9% | |
| NE Cam Newton | 15% | 11% | 18% | |
| ARI Chase Edmonds | 15% | 15% | 20% | |
| HOU Deshaun Watson | 14% | 13% | 13% | |
| LA Darrell Henderson | 14% | 13% | 9% | |
| CLE Kareem Hunt | 13% | NA | 29% | |
| BUF Zack Moss | 13% | NA | 18% | |
| SF Jeff Wilson | 12% | 17% | 32% | Positive |
| ATL Brian Hill | 10% | 7% | 17% | |
| DAL Tony Pollard | 10% | 13% | 25% | |
| NE James White | 10% | 16% | 10% | |
| WAS Peyton Barber | 10% | 19% | 31% | |
| ARI Kyler Murray | 10% | 8% | 14% | |
| PHI Boston Scott | 10% | 13% | 6% |
Week 15 Fantasy Usage Model
1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)
2. Targets Aren't Equal (Monday Night)
3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)
4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)
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