Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "Situational RB Touches" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.
Week 15 Situational RB Touches
One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.
| Player | Early Downs | Third Down | Inside 10 | Passing Situation Targets |
| ARI Chase Edmonds | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| ARI Kenyan Drake | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL Ito Smith | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL Brian Hill | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL Keith Smith | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ATL Todd Gurley | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| BAL J.K. Dobbins | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| BAL Gus Edwards | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| BAL Patrick Ricard | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAL Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BUF Devin Singletary | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| BUF Zack Moss | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| CAR Mike Davis | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR Rodney Smith | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| CAR Alex Armah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CHI David Montgomery | 30 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| CLE Nick Chubb | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| CLE Kareem Hunt | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| CLE D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL Tony Pollard | 18 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| DEN Melvin Gordon | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| DEN Phillip Lindsay | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DEN Royce Freeman | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET D'Andre Swift | 18 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| DET Adrian Peterson | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| GB Aaron Jones | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| GB Jamaal Williams | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GB AJ Dillon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU Duke Johnson | 13 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| HOU Buddy Howell | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU Scottie Phillips | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| IND Jonathan Taylor | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| IND Nyheim Hines | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| JAX James Robinson | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| JAX Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| JAX Devine Ozigbo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| KC Le'Veon Bell | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| KC Darrel Williams | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LA Cam Akers | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| LA Darrell Henderson | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LA Malcolm Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| LAC Austin Ekeler | 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| LAC Kalen Ballage | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| LAC Joshua Kelley | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LAC Gabe Nabers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LV Josh Jacobs | 26 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| LV Devontae Booker | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LV Jalen Richard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LV Theo Riddick | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIA Salvon Ahmed | 24 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| MIA Matt Breida | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIA Patrick Laird | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| MIN Dalvin Cook | 26 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| MIN Alexander Mattison | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NE Sony Michel | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NE James White | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NE Jakob Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NE J.J. Taylor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NO Alvin Kamara | 16 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| NO Latavius Murray | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NYG Alfred Morris | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYG Dion Lewis | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| NYG Elijhaa Penny | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| NYG Wayne Gallman | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| NYJ Frank Gore | 19 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| NYJ Ty Johnson | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| PHI Miles Sanders | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| PHI Boston Scott | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SEA Chris Carson | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| SEA Carlos Hyde | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| SEA Rashaad Penny | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SF Jeff Wilson | 19 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| SF Raheem Mostert | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| SF Kyle Juszczyk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| SF Tevin Coleman | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SF Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TB Leonard Fournette | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| TB Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TB LeSean McCoy | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TEN Derrick Henry | 25 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| TEN Darrynton Evans | 9 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| TEN Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WAS J.D. McKissic | 21 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| WAS Peyton Barber | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Week 15 Garbage Time Eaters
Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.
| Player | Garbage Rate | Garbage Touch | Total Touches |
| Darrynton Evans | 100% | 10 | 10 |
| Zack Moss | 77% | 10 | 13 |
| Gus Edwards | 73% | 8 | 11 |
| James Robinson | 63% | 12 | 19 |
| Aaron Jones | 63% | 15 | 24 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 60% | 9 | 15 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 57% | 8 | 14 |
| Devin Singletary | 55% | 6 | 11 |
| James White | 50% | 3 | 6 |
| Kareem Hunt | 50% | 5 | 10 |
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Golden Opportunities
As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "Golden Opportunities", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by golden opportunities per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 golden opportunities per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "Golden Opp %" is the percentage of opportunities that are golden opportunities. The higher, the better for all categories.
| Player | Golden Opps | Inside 10 | Targets | Carries | Opps | Golden Opp % | Last 4 Games |
| 1. Austin Ekeler | 11.3 | 1.8 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 22.0 | 51% | 4 |
| 2. Dalvin Cook | 8.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 24.0 | 29.5 | 29% | 4 |
| 3. D'Andre Swift | 8.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 53% | 2 |
| 4. Myles Gaskin | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 23.0 | 35% | 1 |
| 5. Salvon Ahmed | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 26.0 | 31% | 1 |
| 6. J.D. McKissic | 7.3 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 14.0 | 52% | 4 |
| 7. Darrynton Evans | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 70% | 1 |
| 8. James Robinson | 7.0 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 17.0 | 21.8 | 32% | 4 |
| 9. Nyheim Hines | 6.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 54% | 4 |
| 10. Josh Jacobs | 6.3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 15.3 | 19.0 | 33% | 3 |
| 11. Mike Davis | 6.3 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 13.3 | 18.0 | 35% | 3 |
| 12. David Montgomery | 6.3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 17.8 | 21.8 | 29% | 4 |
| 13. Chase Edmonds | 6.0 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 47% | 4 |
| 14. Duke Johnson | 6.0 | 0.3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 12.5 | 48% | 4 |
| 15. DeAndre Washington | 6.0 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 13.0 | 17.5 | 34% | 2 |
| 16. Kenyan Drake | 6.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 16.3 | 18.8 | 32% | 4 |
| 17. Leonard Fournette | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 48% | 2 |
| 18. Alvin Kamara | 5.8 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 12.0 | 17.3 | 33% | 4 |
| 19. Ezekiel Elliott | 5.7 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 13.3 | 17.3 | 33% | 3 |
| 20. Antonio Gibson | 5.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 14.5 | 38% | 2 |
| 21. Benny Snell | 5.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 47% | 3 |
| 22. Cam Akers | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 18.5 | 20.3 | 26% | 4 |
| 23. Jeff Wilson | 5.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 36% | 4 |
| 24. Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 17.3 | 19.3 | 27% | 4 |
| 25. Tony Pollard | 4.8 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 39% | 4 |
| 26. Jonathan Taylor | 4.7 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 16.3 | 19.7 | 24% | 3 |
| 27. Chris Carson | 4.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 28% | 4 |
| 28. Kareem Hunt | 4.5 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 35% | 4 |
| 29. Aaron Jones | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 16.8 | 19.8 | 20% | 4 |
| 30. Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 13.7 | 17.0 | 24% | 3 |
| 31. Miles Sanders | 4.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 11.8 | 14.5 | 28% | 4 |
| 32. Carlos Hyde | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 35% | 4 |
| 33. Derrick Henry | 3.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 23.0 | 25.3 | 14% | 4 |
| 34. Le'Veon Bell | 3.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 33% | 4 |
| 35. Melvin Gordon | 3.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 12.8 | 15.0 | 23% | 4 |
| 36. Ronald Jones | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 23% | 2 |
| 37. Ty Johnson | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 8.8 | 11.3 | 31% | 4 |
| 38. Wayne Gallman | 3.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 15.3 | 17.5 | 20% | 4 |
| 39. Kerryon Johnson | 3.3 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 42% | 3 |
| 40. Adrian Peterson | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 30% | 4 |
| 41. Ito Smith | 3.3 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 27% | 4 |
| 42. Damien Harris | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 14.7 | 20% | 3 |
| 43. Devin Singletary | 3.0 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 11.0 | 13.8 | 22% | 4 |
| 44. David Johnson | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 25% | 1 |
| 45. Kalen Ballage | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 32% | 3 |
| 46. Raheem Mostert | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 13.3 | 15.0 | 20% | 4 |
| 47. Latavius Murray | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 28% | 4 |
| 48. Giovani Bernard | 2.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 26% | 3 |
| 49. Jordan Wilkins | 2.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 40% | 3 |
| 50. Devontae Booker | 2.5 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 27% | 4 |
| 51. Frank Gore | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 12.5 | 13.8 | 18% | 4 |
| 52. J.K. Dobbins | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 18% | 3 |
| 53. Rodney Smith | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 35% | 3 |
| 54. Todd Gurley | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 33% | 3 |
| 55. Jeremy McNichols | 2.3 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 32% | 4 |
| 56. Zack Moss | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 21% | 4 |
| 57. Trayveon Williams | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 24% | 2 |
| 58. Gus Edwards | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 20% | 4 |
| 59. Peyton Barber | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 16% | 4 |
| 60. Sony Michel | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 17% | 3 |
| 61. Jamaal Williams | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 16% | 4 |
| 62. Phillip Lindsay | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 12% | 4 |
| 63. Darrell Henderson | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 24% | 4 |
| 64. Anthony McFarland | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 22% | 2 |
| 65. Alfred Morris | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 17% | 4 |
| 66. Brian Hill | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 14% | 4 |
| 67. Buddy Howell | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 11% | 2 |
| 68. Darrel Williams | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 18% | 2 |
| 69. Josh Adams | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 18% | 3 |
| 70. Matt Breida | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 9% | 2 |
| 71. Mark Ingram | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 14% | 1 |
| 72. Samaje Perine | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 19% | 3 |
| 73. D'Onta Foreman | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0% | 1 |
| 74. James Conner | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0% | 1 |
| 75. Jordan Howard | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0% | 1 |
| 76. Royce Freeman | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0% | 2 |
Game-Script Touch Shares
Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.
| Player | Neutral | Trailing | Leading | Game Script Bump |
| TEN Derrick Henry | 61% | 22% | 40% | Positive |
| MIN Dalvin Cook | 54% | 34% | 48% | |
| JAX James Robinson | 52% | 29% | 29% | |
| GB Aaron Jones | 39% | NA | 31% | |
| CHI David Montgomery | 36% | 29% | 39% | |
| ARI Kenyan Drake | 36% | 27% | 24% | |
| CLE Nick Chubb | 35% | 18% | 29% | |
| SF Raheem Mostert | 33% | 16% | 22% | |
| NYJ Frank Gore | 32% | 20% | 32% | |
| LA Cam Akers | 31% | 24% | 44% | Positive |
| NO Alvin Kamara | 31% | 32% | 26% | |
| PHI Miles Sanders | 31% | 20% | 32% | |
| CAR Mike Davis | 30% | 30% | 27% | |
| NYG Wayne Gallman | 29% | 29% | 37% | |
| DEN Phillip Lindsay | 29% | 17% | 25% | |
| LAC Austin Ekeler | 28% | 36% | 35% | |
| DEN Melvin Gordon | 27% | 30% | 22% | |
| CIN Giovani Bernard | 26% | 14% | NA | |
| NYJ Ty Johnson | 24% | 20% | 20% | |
| BUF Devin Singletary | 24% | NA | 22% | |
| DET Adrian Peterson | 23% | 13% | NA | |
| ATL Ito Smith | 22% | 13% | 22% | |
| NE Cam Newton | 22% | 14% | 19% | |
| SEA Chris Carson | 22% | 36% | 25% | |
| IND Nyheim Hines | 20% | 23% | 17% | |
| NO Latavius Murray | 19% | 12% | 19% | |
| WAS J.D. McKissic | 19% | 31% | 11% | |
| BAL Gus Edwards | 19% | 16% | 14% | |
| KC Le'Veon Bell | 18% | NA | 14% | |
| SEA Carlos Hyde | 17% | 5% | 21% | |
| SF Jeff Wilson | 16% | 20% | 32% |
Week 16 Fantasy Usage Model
1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)
2. Targets Aren't Equal (Monday Night)
3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)
4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)
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