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Fantasy Usage Model

Targets Aren't Equal: A Week 15 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: December 22, 2020, 9:54 am ET

Targets aren't equal for fantasy football. It's easier to complete a pass over the middle compared to near the sideline. As you can see in the chart below, "sideline targets" are worth 1.58 PPR points on average, while "middle targets" are worth 1.83 PPR points, a difference of +0.25 PPR points per target. That can add up.

Air yards -- the distance the ball traveled from the line of scrimmage to the receiver at the catch point -- are also worth tracking. The further downfield a target travels, the more valuable it is. On average, "shallow targets" (under 10 air yards) are worth 1.51 PPR points, while "deep targets" (20+ air yards) are worth 2.07 PPR points, a difference of +0.56 PPR points per target. Once again, that can add up. With this said, deep targets are far more volatile. That means receivers who have a high deep target percentage will be boom-bust fantasy assets. Think prime DeSean Jackson (if you're a Boomer) or Marquise Brown (if you're a Gen Zer like me).

And of course, targets closer to the end zone are worth more because fantasy football is a touchdown-heavy game. Targets from 99 yards away to 21 yards away are worth about 1.5 PPR points on average, but inside the red zone, targets are worth between 1.5 to 4.0 PPR points depending on exactly how far away the team is from the goal-line. "Red zone targets" are worth tracking, as some receivers see slightly higher target shares near the red zone simply because they're bigger and more physical. The real key to predicting red zone targets is just finding receivers with high Vegas implied team totals. 

 


Targets By Type - WRs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
1. Brandon Aiyuk 12.7 32% 1.3 28% 13%
2. Stefon Diggs 11.8 33% 1.0 15% 10%
3. Calvin Ridley 11.3 29% 1.5 16% 30%
4. Diontae Johnson 11.3 25% 0.8 18% 11%
5. Deebo Samuel 11.0 28% 0.3 32% 2%
6. Justin Jefferson 11.0 30% 0.7 17% 19%
7. Marvin Jones 11.0 28% 0.9 32% 21%
8. DeAndre Hopkins 10.5 30% 1.1 15% 9%
9. Tyreek Hill 10.5 25% 1.3 20% 23%
10. Davante Adams 10.3 35% 1.8 19% 14%
11. Julio Jones 10.0 26% 1.1 25% 18%
12. Robert Woods 9.8 30% 0.8 11% 11%
13. Allen Robinson 9.5 29% 1.1 31% 15%
14. Jarvis Landry 9.5 29% 1.1 22% 11%
15. Cole Beasley 8.8 25% 0.7 32% 12%
16. DK Metcalf 8.8 27% 0.9 23% 24%
17. Keenan Allen 8.8 20% 1.2 20% 7%
18. D.J. Moore 8.5 24% 0.5 22% 20%
19. Nelson Agholor 8.5 22% 0.9 28% 25%
20. Michael Thomas 8.3 28% 1.6 25% 4%
21. Terry McLaurin 8.3 22% 0.9 25% 16%
22. DeVante Parker 8.0 22% 0.8 19% 7%
23. JuJu Smith-Schuster 8.0 18% 1.3 35% 6%
24. Robby Anderson 8.0 23% 0.9 18% 16%
25. Curtis Samuel 7.7 22% 0.9 22% 11%
26. Michael Gallup 7.5 23% 0.9 17% 18%
27. Russell Gage 7.5 19% 1.1 23% 10%
28. Marquise Brown 7.3 36% 0.4 41% 28%
29. T.Y. Hilton 7.3 22% 0.7 11% 15%
30. A.J. Brown 7.0 25% 0.9 28% 11%
31. D.J. Chark 7.0 19% 0.9 20% 26%
32. Mike Evans 7.0 20% 1.3 16% 17%
33. Bisi Johnson 7.0 19% 0.0 0% 11%
34. Will Fuller 7.0 22% 0.8 27% 19%
35. Chase Claypool 6.8 15% 0.9 21% 26%
36. Jakobi Meyers 6.8 31% 0.5 37% 13%
37. Brandin Cooks 6.7 21% 0.5 31% 16%
38. Rashard Higgins 6.5 20% 0.7 16% 20%
39. Sterling Shepard 6.5 23% 0.7 26% 10%
40. Tee Higgins 6.5 25% 0.8 30% 22%
41. Cam Sims 6.3 17% 0.2 26% 26%
42. Amari Cooper 6.3 19% 0.9 19% 11%
43. CeeDee Lamb 6.3 19% 0.6 33% 18%
44. Tyler Lockett 6.3 19% 0.9 24% 12%
45. Adam Thielen 6.0 16% 1.4 13% 20%
46. Corey Davis 6.0 22% 0.6 19% 10%
47. Hunter Renfrow 6.0 15% 0.5 23% 12%
48. Jamison Crowder 6.0 25% 0.9 27% 7%
49. Laviska Shenault 6.0 16% 0.7 25% 5%
50. Cooper Kupp 5.8 18% 0.9 30% 8%
51. Chris Godwin 5.7 16% 0.7 37% 12%
52. Chad Hansen 5.7 18% 0.0 47% 18%
53. Andy Isabella 5.5 16% 0.3 23% 23%
54. Damiere Byrd 5.5 26% 0.2 21% 13%
55. Darnell Mooney 5.5 17% 0.6 10% 27%
56. Keelan Cole 5.5 15% 0.6 32% 20%
57. Keke Coutee 5.5 18% 1.3 29% 7%
58. Michael Pittman 5.5 17% 0.8 26% 9%
59. Sammy Watkins 5.5 13% 1.0 29% 4%
60. Danny Amendola 5.3 14% 0.5 32% 7%
61. Mike Williams 5.3 12% 0.7 15% 30%
62. Gabriel Davis 5.3 15% 0.9 25% 23%
63. Kendrick Bourne 5.3 13% 0.7 23% 6%
64. Lynn Bowden 5.3 14% 0.2 32% 9%
65. Antonio Brown 5.0 14% 0.5 17% 15%
66. Breshad Perriman 5.0 21% 0.4 10% 27%
67. Denzel Mims 5.0 21% 0.6 24% 27%
68. Darius Slayton 5.0 17% 0.7 19% 18%
69. Jalen Guyton 5.0 11% 0.3 22% 33%
70. Jalen Reagor 5.0 15% 0.6 17% 26%
71. Mecole Hardman 5.0 12% 0.2 30% 20%
72. Noah Brown 5.0 15% 0.3 22% 13%
73. Steven Mitchell 5.0 16% 1.0 60% 20%
74. Tyler Boyd 5.0 19% 1.1 46% 7%
75. Allen Lazard 4.8 16% 0.5 20% 15%
76. Collin Johnson 4.5 12% 0.5 29% 13%
77. Golden Tate 4.5 16% 0.4 37% 12%
78. Greg Ward 4.5 13% 0.5 25% 4%
79. Jakeem Grant 4.3 12% 0.3 26% 17%
80. Christian Kirk 4.3 12% 0.8 10% 25%
81. Emmanuel Sanders 4.3 14% 1.0 20% 8%
82. Ty Johnson 4.3 9% 0.3 24% 35%
83. Adam Humphries 4.0 14% 0.9 20% 6%
84. Henry Ruggs 4.0 10% 0.2 16% 34%
85. James Washington 4.0 9% 0.4 24% 25%
86. KJ Hamler 4.0 17% 0.4 34% 14%
87. Lil'Jordan Humphrey 4.0 13% 1.0 25% 0%
88. Marvin Hall 4.0 10% 0.2 30% 27%
89. Mack Hollins 4.0 11% 0.1 20% 10%

 


Targets By Type - TEs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
1. Darren Waller 11.5 29% 1.6 24% 9%
2. Travis Kelce 10.8 26% 1.4 26% 8%
3. Logan Thomas 8.8 23% 1.0 34% 10%
4. T.J. Hockenson 8.0 20% 1.2 29% 5%
5. Dallas Goedert 7.8 23% 0.6 31% 15%
6. Mike Gesicki 7.3 20% 1.0 34% 15%
7. Eric Ebron 7.0 16% 1.1 39% 7%
8. Evan Engram 7.0 24% 0.9 29% 6%
9. Hunter Henry 6.8 15% 1.0 32% 5%
10. Noah Fant 6.7 28% 0.8 27% 9%
11. Richard Rodgers 6.0 18% 0.4 23% 13%
12. Mark Andrews 5.5 28% 1.1 49% 11%
13. Rob Gronkowski 5.3 15% 1.1 30% 18%
14. Hayden Hurst 5.0 13% 0.8 14% 5%
15. Jordan Reed 5.0 13% 0.9 43% 5%
16. Kyle Rudolph 5.0 14% 0.4 46% 3%
17. Zach Ertz 5.0 15% 0.6 38% 7%
18. Cole Kmet 4.8 15% 0.5 30% 7%
19. Robert Tonyan 4.5 15% 0.7 16% 15%
20. Drew Sample 4.3 16% 0.7 29% 0%
21. Jordan Akins 4.3 14% 0.5 30% 5%
22. Dawson Knox 4.0 11% 1.0 19% 3%
23. Gerald Everett 4.0 12% 0.2 20% 2%
24. Irv Smith 4.0 11% 0.8 19% 16%
25. Jared Cook 4.0 13% 0.9 35% 14%
26. Tyler Eifert 4.0 11% 0.8 32% 11%

 


Targets By Team

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player Targets Share RZ Middle % Deep %
ARI DeAndre Hopkins 10.5 30% 1.1 15% 9%
ARI Andy Isabella 5.5 16% 0.3 23% 23%
ARI Chase Edmonds 5.3 15% 0.7 21% 2%
ARI Christian Kirk 4.3 12% 0.8 10% 25%
ATL Calvin Ridley 11.3 29% 1.5 16% 30%
ATL Julio Jones 10.0 26% 1.1 25% 18%
ATL Russell Gage 7.5 19% 1.1 23% 10%
ATL Hayden Hurst 5.0 13% 0.8 14% 5%
BAL Marquise Brown 7.3 36% 0.4 41% 28%
BAL Mark Andrews 5.5 28% 1.1 49% 11%
BUF Stefon Diggs 11.8 33% 1.0 15% 10%
BUF Cole Beasley 8.8 25% 0.7 32% 12%
BUF Gabriel Davis 5.3 15% 0.9 25% 23%
BUF Dawson Knox 4.0 11% 1.0 19% 3%
CAR D.J. Moore 8.5 24% 0.5 22% 20%
CAR Robby Anderson 8.0 23% 0.9 18% 16%
CAR Curtis Samuel 7.7 22% 0.9 22% 11%
CAR Mike Davis 4.7 13% 0.8 16% 0%
CHI Allen Robinson 9.5 29% 1.1 31% 15%
CHI Darnell Mooney 5.5 17% 0.6 10% 27%
CHI Cole Kmet 4.8 15% 0.5 30% 7%
CHI David Montgomery 4.0 12% 0.8 26% 2%
CIN Tee Higgins 6.5 25% 0.8 30% 22%
CIN Tyler Boyd 5.0 19% 1.1 46% 7%
CIN Drew Sample 4.3 16% 0.7 29% 0%
CLE Jarvis Landry 9.5 29% 1.1 22% 11%
CLE Rashard Higgins 6.5 20% 0.7 16% 20%
DAL Michael Gallup 7.5 23% 0.9 17% 18%
DAL Amari Cooper 6.3 19% 0.9 19% 11%
DAL CeeDee Lamb 6.3 19% 0.6 33% 18%
DAL Noah Brown 5.0 15% 0.3 22% 13%
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 4.0 12% 0.5 21% 0%
DEN Noah Fant 6.7 28% 0.8 27% 9%
DEN KJ Hamler 4.0 17% 0.4 34% 14%
DET Marvin Jones 11.0 28% 0.9 32% 21%
DET T.J. Hockenson 8.0 20% 1.2 29% 5%
DET Danny Amendola 5.3 14% 0.5 32% 7%
DET D'Andre Swift 5.0 13% 0.8 16% 0%
DET Jonathan Williams 4.0 10% 0.0 25% 0%
DET Marvin Hall 4.0 10% 0.2 30% 27%
GB Davante Adams 10.3 35% 1.8 19% 14%
GB Allen Lazard 4.8 16% 0.5 20% 15%
GB Robert Tonyan 4.5 15% 0.7 16% 15%
HOU Duke Johnson 7.5 24% 1.0 13% 5%
HOU Will Fuller 7.0 22% 0.8 27% 19%
HOU Brandin Cooks 6.7 21% 0.5 31% 16%
HOU Chad Hansen 5.7 18% 0.0 47% 18%
HOU Keke Coutee 5.5 18% 1.3 29% 7%
HOU Steven Mitchell 5.0 16% 1.0 60% 20%
HOU Jordan Akins 4.3 14% 0.5 30% 5%
HOU Duke Johnson 4.0 13% 0.5 25% 0%
IND T.Y. Hilton 7.3 22% 0.7 11% 15%
IND Michael Pittman 5.5 17% 0.8 26% 9%
IND Nyheim Hines 5.0 15% 0.7 17% 2%
JAX D.J. Chark 7.0 19% 0.9 20% 26%
JAX Laviska Shenault 6.0 16% 0.7 25% 5%
JAX Keelan Cole 5.5 15% 0.6 32% 20%
JAX James Robinson 4.8 13% 0.4 13% 0%
JAX Collin Johnson 4.5 12% 0.5 29% 13%
JAX Tyler Eifert 4.0 11% 0.8 32% 11%
KC Travis Kelce 10.8 26% 1.4 26% 8%
KC Tyreek Hill 10.5 25% 1.3 20% 23%
KC Sammy Watkins 5.5 13% 1.0 29% 4%
KC Mecole Hardman 5.0 12% 0.2 30% 20%
LA Robert Woods 9.8 30% 0.8 11% 11%
LA Cooper Kupp 5.8 18% 0.9 30% 8%
LA Gerald Everett 4.0 12% 0.2 20% 2%
LAC Austin Ekeler 9.5 21% 0.8 18% 0%
LAC Keenan Allen 8.8 20% 1.2 20% 7%
LAC Hunter Henry 6.8 15% 1.0 32% 5%
LAC Mike Williams 5.3 12% 0.7 15% 30%
LAC Jalen Guyton 5.0 11% 0.3 22% 33%
LAC Ty Johnson 4.3 9% 0.3 24% 35%
LV Darren Waller 11.5 29% 1.6 24% 9%
LV Nelson Agholor 8.5 22% 0.9 28% 25%
LV Hunter Renfrow 6.0 15% 0.5 23% 12%
LV Henry Ruggs 4.0 10% 0.2 16% 34%
MIA DeVante Parker 8.0 22% 0.8 19% 7%
MIA Mike Gesicki 7.3 20% 1.0 34% 15%
MIA Lynn Bowden 5.3 14% 0.2 32% 9%
MIA DeAndre Washington 4.5 12% 0.0 11% 0%
MIA Jakeem Grant 4.3 12% 0.3 26% 17%
MIA Mack Hollins 4.0 11% 0.1 20% 10%
MIN Justin Jefferson 11.0 30% 0.7 17% 19%
MIN Bisi Johnson 7.0 19% 0.0 0% 11%
MIN Adam Thielen 6.0 16% 1.4 13% 20%
MIN Dalvin Cook 5.5 15% 0.2 21% 0%
MIN Kyle Rudolph 5.0 14% 0.4 46% 3%
MIN Irv Smith 4.0 11% 0.8 19% 16%
NE Jakobi Meyers 6.8 31% 0.5 37% 13%
NE Damiere Byrd 5.5 26% 0.2 21% 13%
NO Michael Thomas 8.3 28% 1.6 25% 4%
NO Alvin Kamara 5.3 17% 1.1 16% 3%
NO Emmanuel Sanders 4.3 14% 1.0 20% 8%
NO Jared Cook 4.0 13% 0.9 35% 14%
NO Lil'Jordan Humphrey 4.0 13% 1.0 25% 0%
NYG Evan Engram 7.0 24% 0.9 29% 6%
NYG Sterling Shepard 6.5 23% 0.7 26% 10%
NYG Darius Slayton 5.0 17% 0.7 19% 18%
NYG Wayne Gallman 4.5 16% 0.6 28% 0%
NYG Golden Tate 4.5 16% 0.4 37% 12%
NYJ Jamison Crowder 6.0 25% 0.9 27% 7%
NYJ Breshad Perriman 5.0 21% 0.4 10% 27%
NYJ Denzel Mims 5.0 21% 0.6 24% 27%
PHI Dallas Goedert 7.8 23% 0.6 31% 15%
PHI Richard Rodgers 6.0 18% 0.4 23% 13%
PHI Zach Ertz 5.0 15% 0.6 38% 7%
PHI Jalen Reagor 5.0 15% 0.6 17% 26%
PHI Greg Ward 4.5 13% 0.5 25% 4%
PIT Diontae Johnson 11.3 25% 0.8 18% 11%
PIT JuJu Smith-Schuster 8.0 18% 1.3 35% 6%
PIT Eric Ebron 7.0 16% 1.1 39% 7%
PIT Chase Claypool 6.8 15% 0.9 21% 26%
PIT James Washington 4.0 9% 0.4 24% 25%
SEA DK Metcalf 8.8 27% 0.9 23% 24%
SEA Tyler Lockett 6.3 19% 0.9 24% 12%
SEA Chris Carson 4.0 12% 0.6 22% 2%
SF Brandon Aiyuk 12.7 32% 1.3 28% 13%
SF Deebo Samuel 11.0 28% 0.3 32% 2%
SF Kendrick Bourne 5.3 13% 0.7 23% 6%
SF Jordan Reed 5.0 13% 0.9 43% 5%
SF Jeff Wilson 4.0 10% 0.4 26% 0%
TB Mike Evans 7.0 20% 1.3 16% 17%
TB Chris Godwin 5.7 16% 0.7 37% 12%
TB Rob Gronkowski 5.3 15% 1.1 30% 18%
TB Antonio Brown 5.0 14% 0.5 17% 15%
TB Leonard Fournette 4.0 11% 0.7 14% 0%
TEN A.J. Brown 7.0 25% 0.9 28% 11%
TEN Corey Davis 6.0 22% 0.6 19% 10%
TEN Adam Humphries 4.0 14% 0.9 20% 6%
WAS Logan Thomas 8.8 23% 1.0 34% 10%
WAS Terry McLaurin 8.3 22% 0.9 25% 16%
WAS Antonio Gibson 7.0 19% 0.3 13% 0%
WAS J.D. McKissic 6.5 17% 0.8 25% 2%
WAS Cam Sims 6.3 17% 0.2 26% 26%

 


Week 16 Fantasy Usage Model

1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)

2. Targets Aren't Equal (Monday Night)

3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

Follow me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).