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O.J. Howard
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Football Daily Dose

10 Regression Candidates and Backfield Changes

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: December 16, 2019, 12:41 pm ET

Potential Backfield Changes

There weren’t a lot of backfield shakeups compared to recent weeks, so I’ll keep this short:

LIONS - Practice squadder Wes Hills handled 10 carries and scored twice, running ahead of Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic while Bo Scarbrough (ribs) was sidelined. Scarbrough is expected to return next week, however, so Hills isn't a must-add off waivers. In fact, it's best to fade this entire backfield.

CHIEFS - Darwin Thompson (8), Spencer Ware (7), and LeSean McCoy (6) all split carries with Damien Williams sidelined. Williams should be returning soon -- next week? -- but Thompson is an interesting player to track. He’s got the athleticism and receiving skills to be a complementary weapon for Kansas City. 

VIKINGS - Dalvin Cook left early with a new shoulder injury, so Mike Boone operated as the lead back in the second half with Alexander Mattison (ankle) out. Cook’s injury doesn’t appear very serious, however. I’m expecting Cook to play against Green Bay. 

STEELERS - James Conner returned but did not have the near every-down role that he had when fully healthy -- Kerrith Whyte, Benny Snell, and Jaylen Samuels all had touches -- but I expect his role to expand the further away he gets from his injury. Conner clearly isn't fully healthy right now. Hopefully another week makes a difference.

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10 Regression Candidates

A pass-catcher’s usage (targets and/or air yards) this week is a decent predictor of next week’s fantasy performance. The following pass-catchers were either used more than what their box score indicates, making them positive regression candidates:

1. Robert Woods - 9 targets and 62 air yards - only 4 receptions, 17 yards, and 0 TDs

2. Jarvis Landry - 8 targets and 67 air yards - only 5 receptions, 62 yards, and 0 TDs

3. Tyler Boyd - 7 targets and 26 air yards - only 3 receptions, 26 yards, and 0 TDs

4. Kenny Golladay - 7 targets and 119 air yards - only 3 receptions, 44 yards, and 0 TDs

5. Mohamed Sanu - 8 targets and 81 air yards - only 2 receptions, 13 yards, and 0 TDs

6. Brandin Cooks - 8 targets and 100 air yards - only 4 receptions, 46 yards, and 0 TDs

7. James Washington - 11 targets and 212 air yards - only 5 receptions, 83 yards, and 0 TDs

8. Cole Beasley - 6 targets and 56 air yards - only 1 reception, 6 yards, and 0 TDs

9. O.J. Howard - 8 targets and 76 air yards - only 4 receptions, 47 yards, and 0 TDs

10. Mike Gesicki - 8 targets and 89 air yards - only 4 receptions, 47 yards, and 0 TDs

 

Last week's candidates (PPR Points): John Brown (16.9), Julio Jones (38.4), Stefon Diggs (12), Jamison Crowder (27), Sammy Watkins (7.9), Odell Beckham (14.6), Curtis Samuel (16.4), and Larry Fitzgerald (7.2).