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Goal Line Stand

Silva's Fantasy Top 150

by Evan Silva
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

These rankings are intended for 0.5 PPR leagues and influenced by my ongoing participation in Draft.com best-ball drafts, where quarterbacks are devalued and necessarily pushed down the draft board. Running backs are pushed up by the scarcity of true bellcows and need for best-ball drafters to secure at least three. The quarterback position is as deep as it’s ever been, while individual wide receivers have seen fewer targets in recent years due at least partly to the NFL’s increased incorporation of spread concepts, running more three- and four-wideout sets that level out passing-game distributions. Draft.com's scoring also skews touchdown heavy, enhancing the appeal of proven end-zone dominators.

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1. Todd Gurley (RB1) – Led NFL in yards from scrimmage & TDs in first year under Sean McVay.
2. Le’Veon Bell (RB2) – Bell has averaged 24.9 touches per game over the past five seasons.
3. David Johnson (RB3) – Has “fresh legs” & contract-year narratives after injury-ruined 2017.
4. Alvin Kamara (RB4) – Led RBs in receiving yards as rookie. Mark Ingram’s 4-game ban helps.
5. Ezekiel Elliott (RB5) – Zeke led NFL in rushing yards per game in each of first 2 NFL seasons.
6. Saquon Barkley (RB6) – In line for 270+ carries, 50+ catches as Giants’ every-down bellcow.
7. Kareem Hunt (RB7) – Led NFL in rushing as rookie. Passing-game usage expected to grow.
8. Antonio Brown (WR1) – 100+ catches 5 straight years. Move up 2 spots in full PPR leagues.
9. Melvin Gordon (RB8) – Gordon averaged 22.0 touches per game over the past two seasons.
10. DeAndre Hopkins (WR2) – Avg’d 6.3 catches & 91.8 yards with 6 TDs in Watson’s 6 starts.
11. Julio Jones (WR3) – Due for positive-TD regression after managing 3 scores last season.
12. Odell Beckham (WR4) – Top-5 fantasy WR 3 straight years before injury-shortened 2017.
13. Leonard Fournette (RB9) – Jaguars upgraded O-Line with mauling LG Andrew Norwell.
14. Keenan Allen (WR5) – Moved ahead of Michael Thomas after Hunter Henry tore his ACL.
15. Michael Thomas (WR6) – Positive-TD regression candidate after managing 5 scores in ’17.
16. Davante Adams (WR7) – Has Aaron Rodgers’ No. 1 WR role all to himself sans Jordy Nelson.
17. A.J. Green (WR8) – Has finished as a top-12 WR in per-game scoring in 7-of-7 NFL seasons.
18. Rob Gronkowski (TE1) – Gronkowski has finished as top-2 fantasy TE in 5 of the last 7 years.
19. Mike Evans (WR9) – Steep target competition in Tampa, but maintains double-digit TD ceiling.
20. LeSean McCoy (RB10) – High bust risk in anemic Bills offense that lost 3 starting O-Linemen.
21. Devonta Freeman (RB11) – Job-secure lead back in offense due for positive-TD regression.
22. Dalvin Cook (RB12) – On pace for 340 touches before Week 4 ACL tear. “Ahead of schedule.”
23. Jerick McKinnon (RB13) – Kyle Shanahan’s handpicked lead RB. Big upside in Jimmy G offense.
24. Jordan Howard (RB14) – Receiving limitations hurt consistency, but maintains lofty TD ceiling.
25. Christian McCaffrey (RB15) – High-floor RB2 pick should move ahead of Howard in full PPR.
26. Joe Mixon (RB16) – Bengals plan to use Mixon as feature RB behind upgraded offensive line.
27. Doug Baldwin (WR10) – Set up for career year after Jimmy Graham & Paul Richardson’s exits.
28. Travis Kelce (TE2) – 80+ catches in consecutive years. QB change adds volatility to projection.

29. Alex Collins (RB17) – Ravens lead back averaged 19.2 touches per game from Week 8 onward. 
30. Kenyan Drake (RB18) – Drake averaged 119 total yards per game in Weeks 12-17 last season.
31. Rashaad Penny (RB19) – Surprise first-round pick should get opportunity to log 300+ touches.
32. Derrius Guice (RB20) – Physical inside runner will lose passing-down snaps to Chris Thompson.
33. Zach Ertz (TE3) – Model of consistency has topped 70 catches & 800 yards in 3 straight years.
34. Larry Fitzgerald (WR11) – Perennially undervalued. Has averaged 108 receptions past 3 years.
35. Tyreek Hill (WR12) – Last year’s fantasy WR5 faces target competition from Sammy Watkins.
36. Marvin Jones (WR13) – Solidified as Matthew Stafford’s No. 1 WR. Led NFL in yards/reception.
37. Adam Thielen (WR14) – Candidate for positive-TD regression after 91/1,276/4 breakout year.
38. Stefon Diggs (WR15) – Contract year. Diggs hogged touchdowns (8) over Thielen (4) in 2017.
39. T.Y. Hilton (WR16) – Nearly reached 1,000 yards with Jacoby Brissett. Rises if Luck is healthy.
40. Amari Cooper (WR17) – Jon Gruden sounds committed to featuring Cooper as true No. 1 WR.
41. Sony Michel (RB21) – Rookie upgrades on Dion Lewis, who logged 212 touches last season.
42. JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR18) – 58/917/7 as 21yo rookie. More opportunity sans Martavis.
43. Aaron Rodgers (QB1) – Rodgers has been top-2 fantasy passer in 7 of last 8 healthy seasons.
44. Alshon Jeffery (WR19) – Top-15 non-PPR fantasy WR in 3 of last 5 years. High TD upside.
45. Josh Gordon (WR20) – Looked great in 5-game cameo with DeShone Kizer at QB late last year.
46. Lamar Miller (RB22) – Improved defense, healthy Deshaun Watson will help Miller’s cause.
47. Jay Ajayi (RB23) – Eagles expected to maintain RBBC of Ajayi, Corey Clement, Darren Sproles.
48. Derrick Henry (RB24) – May get out-snapped by Dion Lewis, but Henry’s TD ceiling far higher.
49. Golden Tate (WR21) – High-floor WR2 pick has 90+ receptions in 4-of-4 seasons with Lions.
50. Allen Robinson (WR22) – New Bears WR coming off 2 straight disappointing/injured seasons.

51. Brandin Cooks (WR23) – 3 straight 1,000+ yard seasons.
52. Dion Lewis (RB25) – Superior versatility to Derrick Henry.
53. Julian Edelman (WR24) – All signs positive on ACL rehab.
54. Demaryius Thomas (WR25) – Production dips 4 straight years.
55. Marshawn Lynch (RB26) – Got better over the course of '17.
56. Ronald Jones (RB27) – Speedy favorite to lead Bucs in carries. 
57. Tevin Coleman (RB28) – Volatile RB2/flex option wins leagues if Devonta Freeman goes down.
58. Royce Freeman (RB29) – Broncos envision third-round pick as primary early-down ball carrier.
59. Tom Brady (QB2) – Still showing no signs of slowdown. 505 yards, 3 TDs in Super Bowl loss.
60. Greg Olsen (TE4) – Went 9 seasons without missing a game before last year’s Jones fracture.
61. Jimmy Graham (TE5) – Led NFL in red-zone targets in ‘17. Big TD upside with Aaron Rodgers.
62. Rex Burkhead (RB30) – 8 TDs in 10 games last year. Favorite for goal-line work in Foxboro.
63. Jamaal Williams (RB31) – Averaged 20.4 touches per game over final 8 weeks of last season.
64. Aaron Jones (RB32) – More explosive Packers RB option will push Williams hard for touches.
65. Sammy Watkins (WR26) – Finally stayed healthy in ’17. Chiefs made him NFL’s 4th-richest WR.
66. Chris Hogan (WR27) – Quietly top-10 fantasy WR before ‘17 shoulder injury. 6/128/1 in SB52.
67. Emmanuel Sanders (WR28) – Will get more slot work this year. Undervalued in early drafts.
68. Mark Ingram (RB33) – Suspended 4 games for PEDs. Role expected to lessen when he returns.
69. Russell Wilson (QB3) – Led NFL in TD passes in ’17. Has avg’d 35 rushing yds/game last 4 years.
70. Evan Engram (TE6) – Targets take hit with Odell Beckham back but room for efficiency growth.
71. Delanie Walker (TE7) – 800+ yards 4 straight years. I think TEN offense takes big leap in 2018.
72. Kyle Rudolph (TE8) – Last (and cheapest) of rock-solid TE1s. Has 15 TDs the past two seasons.
73. Pierre Garcon (WR29) – 32yo WR coming off neck injury. Has shot to be Jimmy G’s top target.
74. Devin Funchess (WR30) – ‘17 hot run an opportunity-driven anomaly? More target competition.
75. Will Fuller (WR31) – Big-play specialist coming off knee surgery. Had 7 TDs in 4 Watson starts.
76. Robert Woods (WR32) – Avg’d career-best 65.1 yards per game in first season outside Buffalo.
77. Cooper Kupp (WR33) – Led Rams in targets, RZ targets as rookie. High floor & solid TD ceiling.
78. Jarvis Landry (WR34) – Volume-dependent slot WR in danger of major volume loss on Browns.
79. Jamison Crowder (WR35) – Efficient slot man’s game should mesh well with Alex Smith’s style.
80. Nelson Agholor (WR36) – Broke out as 3rd-year WR. Negative-TD regression likely after 8 scores.
81. Michael Crabtree (WR37) – Favorite to lead Ravens in targets, especially in scoring position.
82. Marquise Goodwin (WR38) – Finished top ten in Air Yards. Now faces more target competition.
83. Corey Davis (WR39) – 2017 top-5 pick should ascend as sophomore in exciting Titans offense.
84. Randall Cobb (WR40) – Looks locked in as Aaron Rodgers’ No. 2 WR behind Davante Adams.
85. DeVante Parker (WR41) – Is this finally his year? Post-hype candidate with Jarvis Landry gone.
86. Robby Anderson (WR42) – Ranked top 12 among WRs in Air Yards in ’17. Off-field concerns.
87. Tarik Cohen (RB34) – Versatile game breaker should fit well in Bears’ new spread-style attack.
88. C.J. Anderson (RB35) – Inherits Jonathan Stewart role as early-down & scoring-position grinder.
89. Carlos Hyde (RB36) – Likely to open year as Browns’ starting RB, but Nick Chubb poses big threat.
90. Marlon Mack (RB37) – Presently tops Colts RB depth chart, but late shoulder surgery is a concern.
91. Isaiah Crowell (RB38) – Favorite for Jets carries over Bilal Powell, Thomas Rawls, Elijah McGuire.
92. D’Onta Foreman (RB39) – Was threatening Lamar Miller before tearing Achilles’ last Week 11.
93. Kerryon Johnson (RB40) – Presence of LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick threaten rookie’s ceiling.
94. Chris Thompson (RB41) – Brittle space back recovering from broken leg. Preferable in full PPR.
95. Devontae Booker (RB42) – Broncos see him as passing-game complement to Royce Freeman.
96. Cam Newton (QB4) – Cam has finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in 5-of-7 NFL seasons.
97. Drew Brees (QB5) – Led NFL in yards/attempt & completion rate. Volume likely rebounds in ’18.
98. Deshaun Watson (QB6) – Took NFL by storm in 6 starts. Coming off second ACL tear since ‘14.
99. Carson Wentz (QB7) – Was overall QB2 in fantasy before tearing ACL & LCL on December 10.
100. Jack Doyle (TE9) – 80 catches with Jacoby Brissett. Eric Ebron addition, Luck health are concerns.
101. Jordan Reed (TE10) – Mega producer when healthy; rarely is. Coming off double toe surgery.
102. Tyler Eifert (TE11) – See Reed with even-worse injury history. Innate TD scorer when healthy.
103. Matthew Stafford (QB8) – Safe late-round QB has been top-10 fantasy passer in 4 of last 5 yrs.
104. Marcus Mariota (QB9) – Fourth-year breakout candidate in revised, updated Titans offense.
105. Kirk Cousins (QB10) – Volume will dip in MIN, but has improved firepower & will play indoors.
106. Matt Ryan (QB11) – Expecting bounce-back season after TD rate plunged from 7.1% to 3.8%.
107. Ben Roethlisberger (QB12) – Has finished above fantasy QB10 just 3 times in 14-year career.
108. Pat Mahomes (QB13) – Bazooka arm/rushing upside on KC team set up to generate shootouts.
109. Jimmy Garoppolo (QB14) – On limited playbook, was fantasy QB7 in Weeks 13-17 last year.
110. Philip Rivers (QB15) – Top-15 fantasy QB in 9 of last 10 years. Hunter Henry ACL tear stings.
111. Jared Goff (QB16) – Last year’s QB12 enters second season in Sean McVay’s creative system.
112. Jameis Winston (QB17) – Quietly set career highs in yards/attempt, QB rating & yards/game.
113. Nick Chubb (RB43) – 35th overall pick will push Carlos Hyde for Browns’ primary rushing role.
114. Peyton Barber (RB44) – Inside grinder/goal-line specialist tag teams with rookie Ronald Jones.
115. Rishard Matthews (WR43) – Slated for “Robert Woods role” under ex-Rams OC Matt LaFleur.
116. Jordy Nelson (WR44) – 33yo in new offense after career-worst year by all relevant WR metrics.
117. Giovani Bernard (RB45) – Offers low-end RB1 upside if Joe Mixon gets injured or disappoints.
118. Trey Burton (TE12) – Bears paid him $8M/year to play slot TE in Matt Nagy’s spread-style O.
119. O.J. Howard (TE13) – Flashed monster big-play chops with 16.6 yards/catch, 6 TDs as rookie.
120. Kenny Stills (WR45) – Finished top 10 among WRs in Air Yards. Target hog Jarvis Landry left.
121. Tyler Lockett (WR46) – Contract-year breakout candidate in thin Seahawks pass-catcher unit.
122. George Kittle (TE14) – Sophomore-leap candidate after rock-solid 43/515/2 rookie campaign.
123. Cameron Brate (TE15) – 14 TDs last 2 years. Landed 6-year, $41M extension after the season.
124. Theo Riddick (RB46) – Passing-game playmaker has 50+ receptions in three straight seasons.
125. James White (RB47) – 55+ catches back-to-back years. Low ceiling behind Michel & Burkhead.
126. Duke Johnson (RB48) – 50+ catches 3 straight years. Low ceiling behind Hyde & Nick Chubb.
127. Matt Breida (RB49) – Early/slight favorite for “Tevin Coleman role” behind Jerick McKinnon.
128. Alex Smith (QB18) – Jay Gruden scheme led to career-best years for Andy Dalton/Kirk Cousins.
129. Derek Carr (QB19) – Has been QB15 or worse in 3-of-4 years. Still job-secure late-round QB2.
130. Austin Ekeler (RB50) – Change-up back avg’d 7.28 yards/touch to Melvin Gordon’s 4.62 in ‘17.
131. Bilal Powell (RB51) – 180+ touches in back-to-back years. Will compete with Crowell & Rawls.
132. Jordan Wilkins (RB52) – Fifth-round tackle breaker is sleeper to lead Colts in carries as rookie.
133. Ty Montgomery (RB53) – Undefined role as forgotten man in up-for-grabs Packers backfield.
134. Charles Clay (TE16) – Low-ceiling but job-secure tight end should push to lead Bills in targets.
135. Mohamed Sanu (WR47) – Low-upside, high-floor slot WR will lose targets to Calvin Ridley.
136. Sterling Shepard (WR48) – Slot role secure, but OBJ & Barkley cap Shepard’s usage ceiling.
137. Dez Bryant (WR49) – Cut on 4/13, remains unsigned. Seattle would be best-case landing spot.
138. Kenneth Dixon (RB54) – Back from knee injury & suspensions to compete with Alex Collins.
139. Martavis Bryant (WR50) – Projects as low-volume lid lifter behind Amari Cooper/Jordy Nelson.
140. Kelvin Benjamin (WR51) – Lots of opportunity, but knee problems & suspect quarterback play.
141. Marqise Lee (WR52) – Finished top 30 among WRs in Air Yards. Jags paid him No. 1 WR money.
142. Ted Ginn (WR53) – Logged second-most receiving yards of career (787) in first year with Saints.
143. DeSean Jackson (WR54) – Faces stiff target competition in deep Tampa pass-catcher corps.
144. Paul Richardson (WR55) – Should start with Jamison Crowder after landing 5-year, $40M deal.
145. Kenny Golladay (WR56) – Big-play threat is Lions No. 4 pass option behind Jones/Tate/Riddick.
146. Cameron Meredith (WR57) – Practiced at OTAs after ACL/MCL tear. Slated for “big slot” role.
147. Tyrell Williams (WR58) – Plus-sized field stretcher stands to benefit from Hunter Henry’s loss.
148. Josh Doctson (WR59) – Contested-catch specialist’s fit with Alex Smith remains to be seen.
149. Mitchell Trubisky (QB20) – Has favorable schedule & significantly upgraded supporting cast.
150. Dak Prescott (QB21) – 2017 slump, poor weapons, tough schedule are reasons for pause.

Evan Silva
Evan Silva is a senior football editor for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter .