These rankings are based on 0.5 PPR scoring and leagues that start just one quarterback, devaluing what is already fantasy football’s deepest position. Changes in the rankings have been generated based on preseason adjustments, training-camp injuries, and depth chart movement. These Top 150s will continue to be tweaked as more information rolls in throughout August. Our goal is to have a Bayesian process, tweaking probabilities as we uncover more data and resisting stubbornnness with an open willingness to adjust on the fly.
For more thorough player-by-player analysis, you can read my 32 NFL Team Previews.
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1. Todd Gurley (RB1) – Emerged as NFL’s premier 3-down back in first year under Sean McVay.
2. Le’Veon Bell (RB2) – Averaged 27.5 touches/game last 2 years. Career-high 85 catches in ’17.
3. David Johnson (RB3) – I lean D.J. over Zeke in 0.5 and full PPR but take Elliott in non-PPR drafts.
4. Ezekiel Elliott (RB4) – O-Line is an increasing concern, but Elliott’s workload can compensate.
5. Antonio Brown (WR1) – 150+ targets 5 straight years. Has battled quad injury in training camp.
6. Alvin Kamara (RB5) – Last year’s RB4 despite only 7.5 carries/game. Volume will spike in year 2.
7. Melvin Gordon (RB6) – Pass-game usage has risen every year. Now has best O-Line of career.
8. Leonard Fournette (RB7) – Handled 381 touches in 16 games as rookie, including the playoffs.
9. Kareem Hunt (RB8) – Led NFL in rushing yards, yards after contact & broken tackles as rookie.
10. Christian McCaffrey (RB9) – Has swept 1st-team snaps & executed at goal line in preseason.
11. Saquon Barkley (RB10) – Cross between David Johnson-LeSean McCoy battling hamstring pull.
12. DeAndre Hopkins (WR2) – Last year’s overall WR1 with Watson. Also WR1 with Savage/Yates.
13. Odell Beckham (WR3) – Has finished WR5 or better in fantasy points/game in 4-of-4 seasons.
14. Julio Jones (WR4) – 1,400+ receiving yards 4 straight years. Should experience +TD regression.
15. Rob Gronkowski (TE1) – Monster TD & volume upside without Cooks & Edelman Weeks 1-4.
16. Keenan Allen (WR5) – Should dominate Chargers RZ looks with Hunter Henry out of picture.
17. Michael Thomas (WR6) – Plus-sized technician has room for big TD growth after 5-score ’17.
18. Davante Adams (WR7) – Leads NFL in receiving TDs (22) and RZ targets (46) last two seasons.
19. A.J. Green (WR8) – Turned 30 in July. Top-12 fantasy WR in points per game in 7-of-7 seasons.
20. Devonta Freeman (RB11) – High-floor, job-secure lead RB in Falcons offense likely to rebound.
21. Jordan Howard (RB12) – New staff giving him another chance in passing game. Big TD upside.
22. Dalvin Cook (RB13) – Back from ACL tear. OL concerns. May lose GL work to Latavius Murray.
23. Joe Mixon (RB14) – Dropped 20 lbs after sluggish rookie year. Looked rejuvenated in August.
24. Tyreek Hill (WR9) – Each of TyFreak’s last 13 touchdowns have come from 30+ yards out.
25. Mike Evans (WR10) – Went 5/92/0, 6/78/0, 3/95/1 in 3 games with Ryan Fitzpatrick last year.
26. LeSean McCoy (RB15) – Off-field concerns have quieted lately. Still projects for huge volume.
27. T.Y. Hilton (WR11) – Led NFL in receiving yards in ’16. Keeps rising as Luck’s health improves.
28. Doug Baldwin (WR12) – Baldwin was my WR9 pre-knee injury. Expected to be ready for Week 1.
29. Larry Fitzgerald (WR13) – 100+ catches 3 straight years. Has minimal competition for targets.
30. Adam Thielen (WR14) – Elite route runner has major room for TD growth after 4-score 2017.
31. Stefon Diggs (WR15) – High-end WR1 whenever not battling groin injuries last two seasons.
32. Alex Collins (RB16) – Avg’d 19.2 touches/game from Week 8 on. Gets both starting OGs back.
33. Travis Kelce (TE2) – Kelce’s targets per game have risen 4 straight years (5.4 > 6.4 > 7.3 > 8.1).
34. Zach Ertz (TE3) – Including playoffs, went 92/1,016/9 in 17 gms. Alshon absence can only help.
35. JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR16) – Safe WR2 with room for growth following Martavis Bryant exit.
36. Jay Ajayi (RB17) – Avg’d 15.7 touches over final 6 games. Eagles missing 190 carries from ‘17.
37. Derrick Henry (RB18) – Monster touchdown upside vs. soft schedule with improved coaching.
38. Jarvis Landry (WR17) – Set to vacuum targets again surrounded by pass-catcher uncertainty.
39. Amari Cooper (WR18) – Gruden says “main vein” of pass game, comp’d to Sterling Sharpe.
40. Lamar Miller (RB19) – 1,200+ total yards 4 straight years. D’Onta Foreman headed for PUP.
41. Kenyan Drake (RB20) – Expected to share time with Frank Gore despite white-hot 2017 finish.
42. Royce Freeman (RB21) – Man among boys in preseason. Offers early-down bellcow potential.
43. Chris Hogan (WR19) – Last year’s WR10 in first 8 games. Will open year as Brady’s No. 1 WR.
44. Josh Gordon (WR20) – Classic boom-bust pick. Browns seem confident he will be major factor.
45. Marvin Jones (WR21) – Led NFL in yds/catch (18.0) in ‘17. Eric Ebron’s exit frees up 86 targets.
46. Brandin Cooks (WR22) – Volume likely to take hit in L.A. but should still mix in spiked weeks.
47. Golden Tate (WR23) – Elite tackle breaker has 90+ catches 4 straight seasons. Contract year.
48. Demaryius Thomas (WR24) – Coming off 6-year lows in catch rate, yds/catch. 31 in December.
49. Jamaal Williams (RB22) – Overall RB8 in 2nd half of ’17. Has run away with Packers lead RB job.
50. Jerick McKinnon (RB23) – Sidelined by calf strain. Alfred Morris is legitimate threat for carries.
51. Rex Burkhead (RB24) – In Pats bubble wrap.
52. Emmanuel Sanders (WR25) – Value-pick WR3.
53. Jimmy Graham (TE4) – Has 10+ TD upside.
54. Aaron Rodgers (QB1) – 40 TDs last 16 games.
55. Marshawn Lynch (RB25) – Still in BeastMode.
56. Julian Edelman (WR26) – Suspended Wks 1-4.
57. Carlos Hyde (RB26) – Monster last two preseason games. Well ahead of rookie Nick Chubb.
58. Chris Carson (RB27) – Has run away with Seahawks lead back job over injured Rashaad Penny.
59. Kerryon Johnson (RB28) – Concerning he barely ran with 1s in Lions third preseason game.
60. Robby Anderson (WR27) – Was No. 12 in NFL in Air Yards. Sam Darnold looking like real deal.
61. Marquise Goodwin (WR28) – Stark splits with/without Garcon but formed Jimmy G rapport.
62. Dion Lewis (RB29) – Adds versatility to Titans backfield but lacks Derrick Henry scoring upside.
63. Corey Davis (WR29) – Brandon Marshall-level prospect out of college. Durability a concern.
64. Peyton Barber (RB30) – Bucs feature back benefits from third-down back Charles Sims’ loss.
65. Tom Brady (QB2) – Has thrown multiple TDs and/or 300+ yards in 30 of last 36 games (83%).
66. Tevin Coleman (RB31) – Avg’d 10.7 touches/game with ATL backfield at full strength in ’17.
67. Will Fuller (WR30) – Great fit with Deshaun Watson but hamstring injuries always worrisome.
68. Delanie Walker (TE5) – 800+ yards 4 straight years. Massive positive-TD regression candidate.
69. Greg Olsen (TE6) – 33yo played 16 games in 9 straight seasons before last year’s foot fracture.
70. Mark Ingram (RB32) – Suspended Weeks 1-4 (PEDs). Role all but certain to lessen upon return.
71. Deshaun Watson (QB3) – Flashed outrageous ceiling, outscoring all QBs by 6 PPG in Wks 2-8.
72. Sammy Watkins (WR31) – Camp reports & preseason show lack of chemistry with Mahomes.
73. Allen Robinson (WR32) – Fade at ADP. Off ACL, changing teams, hasn’t played well since 2015.
74. Nelson Agholor (WR33) – Broke out with move to slot. Target expectation rises sans Alshon.
75. Evan Engram (TE7) – Healthy returns of OBJ & Shepard + Barkley addition threaten volume.
76. Trey Burton (TE8) – Slot TE fits with Trubisky, who is most efficient attacking middle of field.
77. Chris Thompson (RB33) – Derrius Guice loss should make Skins pass-first team featuring CT.
78. Adrian Peterson (RB34) – Biggest preseason riser now locked in as Skins early-down back.
79. Pierre Garcon (WR34) – Was on 144-target pace before 2017 neck injury. Turns 32 this month.
80. Robert Woods (WR35) – Avg’d career-high 65.1 yards per game in first year with Sean McVay.
81. Kyle Rudolph (TE9) – 15 TDs last 2 years. Kirk Cousins has targeted TEs near league-high rate.
82. Devin Funchess (WR36) – Will face far more target competition after volume-driven breakout.
83. Jordan Reed (TE10) – Outlook very straightforward: Difference maker when healthy. Rarely is.
84. Rashaad Penny (RB35) – Lost camp battle to Chris Carson before undergoing surgery on hand.
85. Cooper Kupp (WR37) – Led Rams in targets, RZ targets, yards/catch, receiving yards as rookie.
86. Alshon Jeffery (WR38) – Recovery from rotator cuff surgery expected to cost him 2+ games.
87. Michael Crabtree (WR39) – Outplayed by John Brown in camp. Still Baltimore’s best RZ threat.
88. Cam Newton (QB4) – Top-5 fantasy QB in 5-of-7 seasons. Multiple O-Line losses are concern.
89. James White (RB36) – Sony Michel & Rex Burkhead’s knee injuries enhance White’s outlook.
90. Russell Wilson (QB5) – ‘17 was the year to buy Russ. OC, weapons, OL & regression concerns.
91. Jordy Nelson (WR40) – Easily Raiders best RZ receiver. One of my favorite 10th-round picks.
92. Isaiah Crowell (RB37) – Played behind Bilal Powell in preseason. 50:50 timeshare seems likely.
93. Bilal Powell (RB38) – Ran ahead of Isaiah Crowell all August but still gets drafted far after him.
94. Randall Cobb (WR41) – Had ankle surgery. Trade rumors may foreshadow release. High risk.
95. Kenny Stills (WR42) – Career-high 105 targets in ’17. Fins missing 290 targets from last year.
96. Alfred Morris (RB39) – Shanahan favorite is far more than “sleeper” to lead 49ers in carries.
97. Tyler Lockett (WR43) – Seattle missing sixth-most targets in NFL & Doug Baldwin already hurt.
98. Jamison Crowder (WR44) – Slot WR in crowded pass-catcher corps. High floor but low ceiling.
99. Kenny Golladay (WR45) – 6-of-28 rookie catches gained 30+ yards. Will play much bigger role.
100. Corey Clement (RB40) – Versatile Super Bowl star is Jay Ajayi injury away from RB1/2 upside.
101. Ronald Jones (RB41) – Struggling in pass game. Clearly behind Peyton Barber on depth chart.
102. Kelvin Benjamin (WR46) – Volume-based WR4/flex has minimal target competition in BUF.
103. Drew Brees (QB6) – Led NFL in YPA (8.1). Attempts likely to rebound vs. tougher schedule.
104. Sony Michel (RB42) – Missed most of camp w/ knee "procedure" but has resumed practicing.
105. Tarik Cohen (RB43) – Bears’ plan to play Jordan Howard on 3rd downs concerning for Cohen.
106. Devontae Booker (RB44) – Broncos favorite for passing-down work behind Royce Freeman.
107. George Kittle (TE11) – Niners expect him back for Week 1 after suffering separated shoulder.
108. Carson Wentz (QB7) – Questionable for Week 1. NFL-best TD rate will regress. Alshon hurt.
109. Giovani Bernard (RB45) – Totaled 101.4 yds/game last Weeks 13-17, but behind Joe Mixon.
110. Latavius Murray (RB46) – Likely to keep significant role with Dalvin Cook coming off torn ACL.
111. Ty Montgomery (RB47) – On track to open year as Packers No. 2 RB behind Jamaal Williams.
112. John Brown (WR47) – Outplaying Crabtree in camp. Can smash ADP with better injury luck.
113. Jack Doyle (TE12) – Coming off 80-catch season. Andrew Luck’s return enhances his upside.
114. Marlon Mack (RB48) – Role was shaky even before suffering multi-week hamstring strain.
115. Aaron Jones (RB49) – Packers most explosive RB can’t shake injuries. Pulled hammy in camp.
116. Nick Chubb (RB50) – Rookie likely needs a Carlos Hyde injury to become fantasy relevant.
117. Jimmy Garoppolo (QB8) – Was overall QB6 w/ depleted pass-catcher corps in five ‘17 starts.
118. Kirk Cousins (QB9) – Top-8 fantasy QB1 in 3 straight years. Best weapons of career in MIN.
119. Matthew Stafford (QB10) – Top 11 in pass volume 9 of last 9 years. Cake early-season sked.
120. Ben Roethlisberger (QB11) – 26 TDs, 7 INTs, 319-yard average over final 10 starts last season.
121. Patrick Mahomes (QB12) – Handed keys to high-powered offense on likely shootout team.
122. Matt Ryan (QB13) – 2016 MVP coming off down ’17. One of my favorite bounce-back QBs.
123. Andrew Luck (QB14) – Missed ‘17 with throwing-shoulder tear. Hasn’t looked 100% in camp.
124. Philip Rivers (QB15) – Steady low-end QB1 lost TD upside when Hunter Henry tore his ACL.
125. Jared Goff (QB16) – 5.9% TD rate likely to regress in balanced to run-first Rams offense.
126. Marcus Mariota (QB17) – May face learning curve in new offense with banged-up weapons.
127. Keelan Cole (WR48) – Realistic shot to become Jags No. 1 WR after Marqise Lee knee injury.
128. Jordan Wilkins (RB51) – Has struggled with fumbles & pass pro but opportunity still abounds.
129. David Njoku (TE13) – Had Kelce-like skill set coming out of The U. Has dominated in August.
130. Tyrell Williams (WR49) – Plus-sized RAC beast should get more usage post-Hunter Henry.
131. Sterling Shepard (WR50) – Will battle Engram & Barkley for targets behind OBJ. Low ceiling.
132. Dede Westbrook (WR51) – See Keelan Cole with more big-play ability on run-first Jaguars.
133. Quincy Enunwa (WR52) – Sneaky high-volume upside opposite deep threat Robby Anderson.
134. Jared Cook (TE14) – Field-stretching tight end caught career-high 54 passes last season.
135. Charles Clay (TE15) – Has never reached 560 yards or topped 4 TDs in three years with Bills.
136. Ryan Grant (WR53) – Reliable possession WR shaping up as Colts No. 2 opposite T.Y. Hilton.
137. O.J. Howard (TE16) – Went 21/325/5 over final 27 targets of ’17. Monster ceiling at TE2 cost.
138. Austin Ekeler (RB52) – Explosive change-of-pace back should offer some standalone value.
139. Mike Williams (WR54) – Last year’s No. 7 overall pick finally showing signs of preseason life.
140. Duke Johnson (RB53) – Has averaged 7.9 & 9.8 touches/game in 2 years with Hue Jackson.
141. Rishard Matthews (WR55) – Finally back from meniscus surgery. Early-season role in doubt.
142. John Ross (WR56) – Bengals release of Brandon LaFell gives Ross hope of year-two breakout.
143. Ted Ginn (WR57) – Increasing concern Ginn could lose snaps to rookie Tre’Quan Smith.
144. Anthony Miller (WR58) – Rookie slot WR ripping up camp. In crowded pass-catcher corps.
145. Taywan Taylor (WR59) – Star of Titans camp ran behind Tajae Sharpe in preseason games.
146. Tyler Eifert (TE17) – Has had healthy camp; knock on wood. Natural-born touchdown scorer.
147. James Conner (RB54) – Every-week RB1 if Le’Veon Bell misses regular season time.
148. Matt Breida (RB55) – 49ers' signing of Alfred Morris deals blow to Breida's sleeper appeal.
149. D.J. Moore (WR60) – This year’s first WR drafted has run behind Torrey Smith in preseason.
150. Chase Edmonds (RB56) – Every-week RB1 if David Johnson ever misses regular season time.