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Golf Daily Dose

Dose: All Set for Moving Day

by Dave Tindall
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Recap of the day

 

After Thursday’s opening round at Quail Hollow in North Carolina, Tiger Woods said this. The way this golf course is set up and the way it's playing right now, the guys are going to be stacked. We're all going to be close. There's going to be probably, I'm guessing, 15 guys or so with a chance on Sunday.” Woods doesn’t look to be wrong.

 

Friday ended with Peter Malnati (68) holding a one-shot lead over Aaron Wise (68) and Jason Day (67). Paul Casey (68) and Charl Schwartzel (67) – both recent winners of the Valspar Championship at Copperhead, the Florida course that is more reminiscent of a tree-lined track in the Carolinas –  were a further shot back while just five strokes covered the top 20.

 

Wise, who started at 10, held a three-shot lead at one point but shot 1-over on his second nine.

 

Leaderboard: -7 Peter Malnati, -6 Aaron Wise, Jason Day, -5 Paul Casey, Charl Schwartzel, -4 Johnson Wagner, -3 Sam Saunders, Kyle Stanley, Nick Watney, Charles Howell III, Emiliano Grillo, Sam Burns.

 

Notables: Evens Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, +2 Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, +3 Hideki Matsuyama 

 

Low round of the day: 65 Bryson De Chambeau. It lifted him 101 spots to T13.

 

Cut: +3 with a 54-hole cut of top 70s and ties set to come after Saturday since 87 golfers made it through the cut line. 

 

MCs: +4 Louis Oosthuizen, Ryan Moore, +5 Gary Woodland, +6 Tommy Fleetwood, +7 Alex Noren

 

 

Saturday weather forecast

 

It’s pretty much the pattern of the first two days. The sunshine comes out and stays out, with temperatures rising from the early 70s at 9am to the mid 80s at 4pm. Winds are light.

 

 

Cumulative Stats of Top 5 after R2

 

Peter Malnati 135 - DD: 295.0, DA: 53.57%, GIR: 66.67%, Scrambling: 66.67%, SG: Putting: 5.619

Aaron Wise 136 - DD: 313.6, DA: 50.00%, GIR: 66.67%, Scrambling: 66.67%, SG: Putting: 3.220

Jason Day 136 - DD: 325.2, DA: 53.57%, GIR: 61.11%, Scrambling: 85.71%, SG: Putting: 3.357

Paul Casey 137 - DD: 321.7, DA: 71.43%, GIR: 61.11%, Scrambling: 71.43%, SG: Putting: 3.140

Charl Schwartzel 137 - DD: 311.4, DA: 57.14%, GIR: 69.44%, Scrambling: 54.55%, SG: Putting: 4.627

 

Notes: Malnati ranks 1st for SG: Putting at the midpoint.

 

 

Fate of the favorites

 

Rory McIlroy 144 – An ugly 76 today dropped the pre-tournament favorite 41 spots and nine off the lead. Came home in 40. Not a great way to celebrate his 29th birthday


Justin Thomas
142
 – His morning 69 propelled Thomas up 51 spots to T28. And he did it despite registering a minus SGP figure


Rickie Fowler
141
 – Up to T20 after a 69. Made just a single bogey and third for the week so far in both DA and Scrambling. Six back but looking poised to surge


Jason Day
136
 – Jump of 15 spots to T2. Second in Scrambling. Holing a 97ft bunker shot for eagle helped. He’s 8-for-8 from sand so far


Hideki Matsuyama
145
 – Needed something in the 60s to make the cut after his opening 77 and, despite having a ‘7’ on his card, scraped in on the number thanks to a 68

 

 

Revised outright betting: 5/2 Jason Day, 9/2 Paul Casey, 12/1 Charl Schwartzel, 14/1 Aaron Wise, Peter Malnati, 22/1 Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, 25/1 Emiliano Grillo. Also: 50/1 Rory McIlroy, 175/1 Tiger Woods

 

 

Quotes

 

Tiger Woods (73, 144 - T48): After taking 64 putts through his first 32 holes: "I need to trust what I keep telling myself, but my feels are telling me one thing. I need to fix it and try to get a little more hit in my stroke. I've always putted faster greens well, and slower greens I've always kind of struggled. I've had ample time to make the adjustment, I just haven't. I'm struggling with putting that much hit in my stroke to hit it that much harder. I've just got to be able to do it. I've hit it good enough to be right up next to that lead. If I just putt normal, I'm right there.”


Patrick Reed
(71, 142 - T28):
 “The greens are firm but slow. It’s an interesting combination. We don’t see that very often. You’re landing shots where you figure you’re supposed to land them and they bounce pretty hard forward but then they’ll grab for you. I go through hot-streaks these past two days where I’ve hit some good tee-shots but then I’ll go through five, six holes where I don’t hit a single fairway. It’s close. I just have to get the driver back under control. Even though I’m missing fairways, I’m missing them in the right spots so I’m able to get the ball on the green.”

 

Road to victory at Quail Hollow

 

Note that 2017 is from the PGA Championship rather than the 2017 edition of this event at Eagle Point:

 

2017 Justin Thomas - R1: 44th, R2: 7th, R3: 4th

2016 James Hahn - R1: 17th, R2: 13th, R3: 3rd

2015 Rory McIlroy - R1 30th, R2: 5th, R3: 1st

2014 J.B. Holmes - R1: 16th, R2: 4th, R3: 1st

2013 Derek Ernst - R1: 1st, R2: 5th, R3: 4th

 

Notes: While there was some leeway in first-round scores, four of the past five course winners were in the top seven after 36 holes while the other was T13. Hahn was five back at halfway when winning in 2016.

 

 

Focus on – Rory McIlroy

 

An opening 69 suggested Rory had thrown off his Sunday disappointment at the Masters but today’s 5-over 76 was his joint-highest round in 32 laps of Quail Hollow. It puts him nine off the lead. Hmmm. Sound familiar? Yep, McIlroy was nine back at the midpoint when he made this course the scene of his first PGA Tour win in 2010. He shot 66-62 on the weekend that year to win by four. Rory was also six back at halfway when runner-up in 2012 and three off the pace after 36 before claiming his second victory at Quail Hollow in 2015. He paved the way for that with a stunning 61 on Moving Day. Another good omen? The last time he shot 76 here (R2 2014), he followed it with a 65 on Saturday.

 

Where has Rory won from?

 

2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational – six back after R2

2016 Tour Championship – five back after R2

2016 Deutsche Bank Championship – seven back after R2

 

Notes: Can he come from off the pace? His last three wins on American soil says he absolutely can.

 

 

A different course?

 

A theme so far this week is the number of players saying how differently the course is playing to what it did at last August’s PGA Championship. So, how about a comparison?

 

Here’s the top 10 in the 2017 PGA and how they’re performing so far:

 

-8 Justin Thomas – T28 (Evs)

-6 Francesco Molinari – T28 (Evs)

-6 Louis Oosthuizen - MC (+4)

-6 Patrick Reed – T28 (Evs)

-5 Rickie Fowler – T20 (-1)

-5 Hideki Matsuyama – T70 (+3)

-4 Graham DeLaet (Not playing)

-4 Kevin Kisner - MC (+5)

-1 Jason Day – T2 (-6)

-1 Chris Stroud – T70 (+3)

 

Notes: Only Day is better than T20 so far. It appears that 2017 PGA form hasn't been a great help.

 

To flip it, here’s how the current top 10 on the 36-hole leaderboard fared in the 2017 PGA:

 

-7 Peter Malnati – DNP

-6 Aaron Wise – DNP

-6 Jason Day – T9

-5 Paul Casey – T13

-5 Charl Schwartzel – T48

-4 Johnson Wagner – DNP

-4 Sam Saunders – DNP

-4 Kyle Stanley – MC

-4 Nick Watney – DNP

-4 Charles Howell III – T73

-4 Emiliano Grillo – MC

-4 Sam Burns – DNP

 

Notes: It’s virtually a different set of actors. Six of the top 12 so far didn’t play last summer while two others missed the cut. Only Day and Casey are providing any sort of link but, then again, both are in the top 15 in the world rankings so would expect to play well anywhere.

Dave Tindall
Dave Tindall is former golf editor at Sky Sports.com in the UK and has been writing betting previews for the European Tour since 1997. He can be reached via e-mail on tindall_david@hotmail.com and on Twitter @davetindallgolf.