Line Moves
There was a lot of movement for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, but it most occurred among drivers much deeper in the rankings.
The favorite, Kevin Harvick (+400) opened at 4/1 and remained there on Saturday largely as a result of his recent momentum combined with a pair of victories in the past two New Hampshire races. He was our favorite as well in this week’s Best Bets post simply because it is hard to bet against that record.
Harvick had +115 odds to finish in the top three on Saturday, which means there is a little money to be made if one wants to hedge their best, but at -500 to finish in the top 10, he’s prohibitively favored. And given the likelihood of him finishing in the top 10, it will be unadvisable to fade him. Harvick struggled at Martinsville, however, and if you have a notion that might happen again this week, you can bet against his finishing in the top five to the tune of +110.
Short track ace Denny Hamlin (+450) also remained unchanged from Monday. He has been star crossed in recent weeks and if not for his victory at Kansas, we might have suggested passing on this bet. But Hamlin is one of the best short, flat track drivers in the field and with some momentum on his side, he will be Harvick’s closest competitor throughout the race.
Martin Truex Jr. is the highest-ranked driver to show any line movement this week. He opened at +700, but bookmakers apparently needed to sweeten the offering by 100 points. Currently at 8/1 odds, he is now more attractive for a mid-sized bet in light of last year’s performance on short, flat tracks when he swept the top 10. He is the most recent winner on this track type with a convincing victory at Martinsville. Truex got a bad qualification draw for the Foxwoods Casino 301 and rolls off the grid 11th, but he should spend most of the day inside the top 10.
Chase Elliott also moved 100 points this week to land at +1000. He is one of four drivers with a pair of top-10s at Phoenix and Martinsville, but he did not come close to winning either of those races. New Hampshire is prone to surprise winners, but a safer bet would be that Elliott lands inside the top three with +275 odds. Elliott is listed at +160 to finish among the top five.
Aric Almirola’s odds improved from Monday. He opened at +2000 and landed at +1600 as his current streak of eight top-10s began to sink in. He is trending in the wrong direction, however. The last three efforts have landed sixth through 10th and that makes him a longshot to finish among the top three, where his current odds are +400. He’s -157 to finish in the top 10, so there is no money to be made there either.
The top two rookies in the field deserve some notice. Both Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer opened at +5000 and were adjusted to +6600. New Hampshire is home to five first time winners and another five who have earned their second or third trophies on this track. Included in this list were some true dark horses like Joe Nemechek and Robby Gordon, so both drivers deserve a modest bet if you can find a little money in the sofa cushions. With +200 odds to finish in the top 10, they warrant a much larger wager in that regard.
Prop Bets
Erik Jones is finally gaining some momentum. He finished sixth at Texas and fifth at Kansas. And while those 1.5-mile tracks are very dissimilar to the flat track, he was third in last year’s New Hampshire race and sixth in 2017. His odds to finish among the top five this week are +425.
Hamlin drew the second pill from the jar and will line up on the outside on the front row. He is deservedly the favorite to win Stage 1 at +350, but could experience a challenge from the pole sitter Aric Almirola. The driver of the No. 10 is listed at +500 to win the first segment. Elliott starts third and is +650 to win the stage.
Once everything equalizes in Stage 2, Hamlin and Harvick are co-favorites to win that segment at +500. Kyle Busch is third with +800 odds.
If any driver can win both stages and the race, he will bank +600 for his supporters.
Ford is favored to win the race with +110 odds, and as expected Harvick leads this group (+160).
Among the Chevrolet camp, Elliott is heavily favored with +190 odds compared to Kurt Busch’s +550. The Hendrick brigade of Alex Bowman (+700), Jimmie Johnson (+750), and William Byron (+800) round out the top five.
Hamlin (+135) is expected to be the best among the Toyota drivers.
One of our favorite dark horses all season has been Matt DiBenedetto. His outright odds to win are +5000 and that is certainly compelling for a modest wager. Draft Kings’ sportsbook has him in a group with Almirola, Kurt Busch, and Jones, however; and if he can finish ahead of those three drivers, he could back $27 for every $10 wagered (+270).
|
Rank |
Driver |
Current Odds |
Opening Odds |
Change |
|
1. |
400 |
400 |
0 |
|
|
2. |
450 |
450 |
0 |
|
|
3. |
700 |
700 |
0 |
|
|
4. |
800 |
700 |
-100 |
|
|
5. |
900 |
900 |
0 |
|
|
6. |
1000 |
900 |
-100 |
|
|
6. |
1000 |
800 |
-200 |
|
|
8. |
1200 |
1200 |
0 |
|
|
9. |
1600 |
2000 |
400 |
|
|
10. |
3000 |
2500 |
-500 |
|
|
10. |
3300 |
3300 |
0 |
|
|
10. |
3300 |
2500 |
-800 |
|
|
|
||||
|
13. |
4000 |
3300 |
-700 |
|
|
13. |
4000 |
5000 |
1000 |
|
|
13. |
4000 |
4000 |
0 |
|
|
16. |
5000 |
4000 |
-1000 |
|
|
16. |
5000 |
6600 |
1600 |
|
|
18. |
6600 |
5000 |
-1600 |
|
|
18. |
6600 |
5000 |
-1600 |
|
|
18. |
6600 |
3300 |
-3300 |
|
|
|
||||
|
21. |
8000 |
8000 |
0 |
|
|
21. |
8000 |
8000 |
0 |
|
|
23. |
20000 |
20000 |
0 |
|
|
23. |
20000 |
20000 |
0 |
|
|
25. |
JH Nemechek |
25000 |
20000 |
-5000 |
|
26. |
30000 |
30000 |
0 |
|
|
27. |
40000 |
40000 |
0 |
|
|
28. |
50000 |
50000 |
0 |
|
|
28. |
50000 |
50000 |
0 |
|
|
28. |
50000 |
50000 |
0 |
|
|
|
||||
|
31. |
75000 |
75000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
33. |
200000 |
200000 |
0 |
|
|
33. |
200000 |
200000 |
0 |
|
|
33. |
200000 |
200000 |
0 |
|
|
33. |
200000 |
200000 |
0 |
|
|
33. |
200000 |
200000 |
0 |
|
|
33. |
200000 |
200000 |
0 |
|
|
33. |
200000 |
200000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
200000 |
200000 |
0 |