Opening lines for the O'Reilly 500 at Texas Motor Speedway were not set until Thursday following the All-star race and as a result, there was not much time for them to move.
Nevertheless, there were some fairly significant shifts in perspective as wagers rolled in.
Kyle Busch began the week as the second-most favored driver with +600 (6/1) odds alongside Denny Hamlin. Last week Busch had a significant bump as the race grew closer on the strength of a very strong Kentucky record. This week odds makers needed to boost the incentive slightly as Busch was listed at +650 on Saturday.
Busch has only one top-five at Texas in the past three years. That was a victory in spring 2018. He is currently listed at +175 to finish in the top three on the Draft Kings sportsbook and with an average finish of 11.5 over the last six races, he is a longshot to cover that bet.
Chase Elliott lost 100 points to his odds from Thursday to Saturday and landed at +800. While he got off to a strong start on this track with back-to-back top-fives in his rookie season, he has not cracked that mark again. He has been consistent with results of sixth through 13th in five of his last six attempts, but that is a far cry from making him a favorite to cover the outright odds to win. At +225 to finish in the top three, he is not a very good bet in that regard either.
Last week Kevin Harvick was the favorite with +500 odds on Saturday. He struggled at Kentucky for most of the race, but the team eventually put him in a great position to contend for the victory. In the closing laps, it seemed to come down to either him or Martin Truex Jr. (with +650 odds at Kentucky). Without a late-race caution, those two would have settled the matter between them, but NASCAR can be unpredictable and Cole Custer charged from row three to steal the win.
Harvick is the most-favored driver two weeks in a row. Only this time, his odds are a mere +300. His Texas stats bear up under that scrutiny because he’s won the last three fall races there and finished in the top five in two of the last three spring events. Harvick has not failed to earn a top-10 on this track in more than five years, but with such a minor payout, bettors will want to fade him.
The best place to do so may well be in a head-to-head matchup with Hamlin. Draft Kings has Harvick listed as -200 to finish ahead of Hamlin, giving the No. 11 driver +155 odds. Hamlin won this race last year. He finished third in fall 2017. It must be noted, however, that he has finished 25th or worse in the other four races during the last three seasons.
Bettors responded well to Ryan Blaney’s opening odds of +1100. So much so, in fact, that odds makers shaved 200 off his line. With 9/1 odds he is an interesting proposal. Blaney finished second in the fall 2018 race behind Harvick. More importantly, he was well on his way to scoring a fifth consecutive 1.5-mile top-five last week before he and Harvick made contact on the final restart. With +250 odds to finish in the top three, he is worthy of a hefty wager.
That Truex was able to challenge for the Quaker State 400 win is a testament to his doggedness. He was forced to start at the back of the pack when the team failed pre-race inspection twice. He seems to thrive under those conditions, however, and working his way through the field only improved the handling of his car. Still, there may have been some residual uncertainty about his luck because this week he dropped to +1000 for the outright win.
Draft Kings has a head-to-head matchup set between Kurt Busch and Erik Jones. Busch is listed as -139 with Jones at +108, which is favorable to bettors. Texas is one of Jones’ best tracks with three fourth-place finishes in a current streak of five consecutive top-10s. Busch is strong there as well with a current streak of six top-10s; none of these have been in the top five, however.
Blaney drew the outside pole to start the O'Reilly 500 and is listed as the favorite to win Stage 1 with +400 odds compared to Harvick’s +450. Harvick rolls off the grid fifth.
Draft Kings believes Harvick will gain momentum as the race progresses, however, because he is heavily favored to win Stage 2. Harvick’s Saturday odds to do so were +350 compared to Hamlin at +700. Blaney falls all the way to +900 to win the second segment.
The odds for any driver to win both stages and the race have been set at +550.
Elliott is a heavy favorite this week to be the best Chevrolet driver with +150 odds compared to Jimmie Johnson’s +550. Elliott has been erratic at times in 2020 and Johnson has been star crossed, which provides an opportunity to place a modest bet on Kurt Busch with +600 odds to top the bowtie brigade.
Harvick is heavily favored to be the best Ford driver with +125 odds to Blaney’s +500.
Kyle Busch and Hamlin are co-favored at +170 to lead Toyota’s charge. But if Jones has the type of day we expect, he could provide a lot of value at +800. Another interesting prop bet involving Jones is whether he can beat Aric Almirola (+215), Johnson (+240), or Kurt Busch (+250). Jones has the longest odds of Draft Kings’ Group C at +275.
Matt DiBenedetto is listed at +300 to beat Alex Bowman (+175), William Byron (+225), and Clint Bowyer (+325) in Group D. DiBenedetto is having a career year on most track types. Last week, he ran with the leaders for most of the race before finishing third. He was second at Las Vegas in Week 2 of the season. That makes him worth at least a modest bet to top this group of four drivers.
|
Rank |
Driver |
Current Odds |
Opening Odds |
Change |
|
1. |
300 |
300 |
0 |
|
|
2. |
600 |
600 |
0 |
|
|
3. |
650 |
600 |
-50 |
|
|
4. |
800 |
700 |
-100 |
|
|
5. |
900 |
1100 |
200 |
|
|
6. |
1000 |
900 |
-100 |
|
|
7. |
1100 |
1100 |
0 |
|
|
8. |
1300 |
1000 |
-300 |
|
|
9. |
2000 |
2000 |
0 |
|
|
10. |
2200 |
2000 |
-200 |
|
|
|
||||
|
11. |
2500 |
2500 |
0 |
|
|
12. |
2800 |
2500 |
-300 |
|
|
13. |
3000 |
2500 |
-500 |
|
|
14. |
4000 |
3300 |
-700 |
|
|
15. |
5000 |
3300 |
-1700 |
|
|
15. |
5000 |
3300 |
-1700 |
|
|
17. |
6000 |
5000 |
-1000 |
|
|
18. |
6600 |
6600 |
0 |
|
|
19. |
8000 |
8000 |
0 |
|
|
19. |
8000 |
8000 |
0 |
|
|
|
||||
|
21. |
12500 |
10000 |
-2500 |
|
|
21. |
12500 |
10000 |
-2500 |
|
|
23. |
15000 |
12500 |
-2500 |
|
|
23. |
15000 |
15000 |
0 |
|
|
25. |
30000 |
25000 |
-5000 |
|
|
26. |
JH Nemechek |
35000 |
35000 |
0 |
|
27. |
50000 |
50000 |
0 |
|
|
27. |
50000 |
50000 |
0 |
|
|
27. |
50000 |
50000 |
0 |
|
|
30. |
75000 |
100000 |
25000 |
|
|
|
||||
|
31. |
100000 |
100000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |
|
|
32. |
150000 |
150000 |
0 |