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Denny Hamlin
AP
Latest Lines

Latest Lines: Daytona 500

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: February 14, 2021, 1:08 pm ET

Line Moves

Nearly every driver in the field experienced line moves from the time PointsBet Sportsbook opened a few weeks ago and Saturday, the day before the Daytona 500. A few, like Denny Hamlin (+800 or 8/1), swapped back and forth and settled on their original odds. At one point during the week, Hamlin was available for +775.

With time trials, the Daytona qualification races, and all practices in the books, there is nothing left to do but race. And with average odds of +1270 among the top 10 contenders, there is plenty of money to be made. Unfortunately the race is no more predictable than it was last week and all wagers carry a significant amount of risk.

The line movement gives bettors one more piece of the puzzle, however. It lets you know where the money has landed before Sunday’s race begins.


Hamlin retains his favored status by a relatively strong margin of 200 points over Joey Logano and Chase Elliott, both of whom remain at +1000. Logano and Elliott survived their qualification races intact and finished moderately close to the front of their respective Duels to line up on one of the first six rows. Logano starts ninth; Elliott rolls off the grid 12th.

The highest-ranked driver to experience a line move was Ryan Blaney (+1100). He started at +1000 alongside Elliott and Logano, but failed to impress bettors. His odds fell 100 points to sweeten the deal just a little. Teammate Brad Keselowski (+1300) needed an even greater bump of 200 points to try and get some action moving.

Among the top 10, William Byron also saw his odds increase by 100 points to +1600. He spent a lot of time with the leaders Thursday during his qualification race, but was unfortunately involved in an accident and will have to give up his outside pole starting position and drop to the back.

Kevin Harvick (+1400), Kyle Busch (+1400), Aric Almirola (+1500), and Kyle Larson (+1600) each saw their odds improve. This suggests that enough money was moving on the quartet to encourage oddsmakers to hedge their bets a little.

Almirola was the biggest mover of the bunch, shifting 300 points on the strength of a solid run that witnessed him leading a ton of laps in Duel 1 as the field settled into single file for most of that race.

Notably, Bubba Wallace (+1800) had his odds improved by 700 points. Wallace was aggressive in his Duel. More importantly, he did not panic when he was shuffled out of lead contention and fell to the back in a three-wide battle. He pulled up to the front of the pack again and will start the Daytona 500 on the outside of Row 2 once Byron drops to the back.

Others who will have to go to the back to start the race are: Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. (+1800), Ross Chastain (+3000), Cole Custer (+5000), Chase Briscoe (+6000), Anthony Alfredo (+25000), Erik Jones (+5000), and Kaz Grala (+20000 on another sportsbook). Most of the drivers will have to drop back because they have to roll out a backup car. Truex was forced to change a radiator and oil cooler. Jones made an engine change.

Prop Bets

Outright winners are hard to pick on aero-restricted superspeedways, but several drivers have top-three or -10 odds that make them interesting.

In his Hendrick Motorsports debut, Larson can be had for +575 odds to finish in the top three or +120 for a top-10. If the team keeps all four drivers on course until the end of the race, both of these marks are achievable.

Wallace’s improved odds to finish first drug his other odds along with them, but he is still an attractive proposition for a top three at +650 odds. Additionally Wallace can be grabbed for +275 in Group D at PointsBet against Chastain, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Truex. All four drivers have identical odds at this level.

One of our top dark horses this week shows attractive odds to finish in the top 10. Listed at +6000 for the outright win, he can add $2.60 to every dollar wagered for a result of 10th or better, which will allow you to build up a bit of a positive balance in the kitty. Buescher can be found in Group E where he has +320 odds against Austin Dillon (+255), Matt DiBenedetto (+255), and Christopher Bell (+265). He only needs to beat those three drivers to give you a bit of a bump.

Chase Elliott (+450) is the top-ranked Chevrolet driver. Blaney and Logano (+550) share the spot as the top Ford, while Hamlin (+165) is the top ranked Toyota driver.

Hamlin may be the top-ranked driver, but given a more competitive foursome overall, Hendrick Motorsports is favored to be the team of the race winner. They land at +300 compared to Joe Gibbs Racing or Team Penske at +400. Buescher’s team, Roush Fenway Racing, is well down the list at +1900.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

 

Rank

Driver

Current Odds

Opening Odds

Change

1.

Denny Hamlin

800

800

0

2.

Joey Logano

1000

1000

0

2.

Chase Elliott

1000

1000

0

4.

Ryan Blaney

1100

1000

-100

5.

Brad Keselowski

1300

1100

-200

6.

Kevin Harvick

1400

1500

100

6.

Kyle Busch

1400

1500

100

8.

Aric Almirola

1500

1800

300

9.

Kyle Larson

1600

1800

200

9.

William Byron

1600

1500

-100

 

11.

Martin Truex Jr.

1800

1800

0

11.

Bubba Wallace

1800

2500

700

13.

Alex Bowman

2000

1800

-200

14.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

2200

2000

-200

15.

Kurt Busch

2500

2200

-300

15.

Austin Dillon

2500

2500

0

17.

Ross Chastain

3000

2500

-500

17.

Christopher Bell

3000

2500

-500

19.

Matt DiBenedetto

3500

2800

-700

20.

Ryan Newman

4000

5000

1000

 

21.

Tyler Reddick

5000

4000

-1000

21.

Erik Jones

5000

4500

-500

21.

Cole Custer

5000

4000

-1000

24.

Chris Buescher

6000

4000

-2000

24.

JH Nemechek

6000

6000

0

24.

Chase Briscoe

6000

4000

-2000

27.

Michael McDowell

6600

5000

-1600

28.

Austin Cindric

7000

4000

-3000

29.

Jamie McMurray

8000

5000

-3000

30.

Ryan Preece

9000

10000

1000

30.

Daniel Suarez

9000

12500

3500

 

32.

Justin Haley

10000

10000

0

33.

David Ragan

12500

10000

-2500

33.

Corey LaJoie

12500

12500

0

36.

BJ McLeod

25000

30000

5000

36.

Kaz Grala

25000

20000

-5000

36.

Anthony Alfredo

25000

20000

-5000

39.

Quin Houff

30000

30000

0

42.

Derrike Cope

50000

50000

0

42.

Joey Gase

50000

50000

0

42.

Cody Ware

50000

40000

-10000

42.

Josh Bilicki

50000

40000

-10000

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.