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Martin Truex Jr.
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Latest Lines

Latest Lines: O’Reilly 253

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: February 20, 2021, 12:47 pm ET

Line Moves

In recent road course races there are two drivers who stand head and shoulders above the competition. Their odds reflect as much.

Among those two, one is a clear favorite.

With odds of +190, Chase Elliott will not even double your wager. If you had secured him at the beginning of the week before money started to exchange hands, that would still be true as you would have only been able to secure a +195 on the PointsBet Sportsbook.

One of the most notable facts about Elliott this week is how much his odds have improved even since last August. For last year’s Go Bowling 235, he closed at +400 odds before going on to win that race.


More than double Elliott’s odds, Martin Truex Jr. can be signed for +420 at the moment. As with Elliott, this is a nickel less than where he opened. Those slight movements say a lot about what has happened during the week. It would seem that enough money poured in on Elliott and Truex that trimming those numbers ever so slightly was important to oddsmakers who fully expect one of them will win. Every penny counts.

It is hard to argue against these two as favorites. Elliott and Truex have combined for eight wins in the last nine road course races. Elliott has five victories, including the last four consecutive. In two of the last nine races, Truex finished second to Elliott. He was third in one other, and on several occasions the team has self-inflicted wounds before or during the race that were hard to overcome.

Head-to-head: they are a very close matchup, which makes Truex with the higher odds a better bet.
More than double Truex’s odds, one finds the third-ranked driver Denny Hamlin (+900). The driver of the No. 11 opened the week at +1000 and watched oddsmakers shave just a little off the top. Hamlin may well be due another road course win. His last victory on a twisty track came in 2016 at Watkins Glen International, but since then he has earned top-fives in half of his starts, including a runner-up finish to Elliott last year on this track.

William Byron (+1800) is another driver among the top-10 ranked to experience a line move. His odds were lowered from +2000, which also suggests that enough money came in at the opening number to necessitate a change. We’re not sure exactly why, but with his new odds he leapfrogged Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick – all of whom remain at +2000.

Kyle Larson (+2000) joined the top 10 when 500 points were shaved from his odds. He ran well last week on the oval and is in great Hendrick Motorsports equipment. He should finish in the top-10, but with only one top-five in 14 road course races, it’s hard to recommend him for the outright win.  

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Rank

Driver

Current Odds

Opening Odds

Change

Odds Last Year

1.

Chase Elliott

190

195

5

400

2.

Martin Truex Jr./span>

420

425

5

450

3.

Ryan Blaney

900

1000

100

900

4.

Denny Hamlin

1000

1000

0

800

5.

Kyle Busch

1100

1100

0

650

6.

AJ Allmendinger

1300

1300

0

 

7.

Kevin Harvick

1500

1500

0

700

8.

William Byron

1800

2000

200

4000

9.

Brad Keselowski

2000

2000

0

1400

9.

Joey Logano

2000

2000

0

1600

9.

Kyle Larson

2000

2500

500

 

 

12.

Alex Bowman

2500

2500

0

3300

13.

Kurt Busch

3000

3000

0

2200

14.

Chase Briscoe

4000

4000

0

 

15.

Matt DiBenedetto

6000

5000

-1000

3300

15.

Christopher Bell

6000

6000

0

6600

17.

Aric Almirola

6600

6000

-600

5000

18.

Erik Jones

8000

8000

0

3300

18.

Cole Custer

8000

8000

0

8000

20.

Michael McDowell

9000

9000

0

10000

20.

Tyler Reddick

9000

9000

0

8000

 

22.

Chris Buescher

10000

10000

0

15000

23.

Austin Dillon

12500

12500

0

20000

23.

Bubba Wallace

12500

12500

0

30000

23.

Ross Chastain

12500

12500

0

 

26.

Ryan Newman

15000

15000

0

10000

27.

Justin Haley

20000

20000

0

 

27.

Anthony Alfredo

20000

20000

0

 

29.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr./span>

25000

20000

-5000

25000

30.

Ryan Preece

30000

30000

0

75000

 

31.

Daniel Suarez

35000

30000

-5000

35000

32.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

 

32.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

25000

32.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

150000

32.

Ty Dillon

50000

50000

0

75000

32.

Joey Gase

50000

40000

-10000

200000

32.

Timmy Hill

50000

50000

0

200000

32.

Scott Heckert

50000

50000

0

 

32.

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

 

32.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

 

32.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

 

32.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

200000

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.