Monday Night Football
Washington @ Philadelphia
Team Totals: Eagles 25.5, Redskins 18.5
Albeit not without a major first-half scare, Philadelphia ended its losing skid in last week’s desperately-needed 25-22 comeback win over the Giants. Newly-anointed feature back Josh Adams was the star of the second-half show, parlaying season highs in snaps (62%) and touches (22) into 84 yards and a score despite losing a 52-yard rushing touchdown to C Jason Kelce’s holding penalty in the first quarter. Corey Clement operated as a mere change-of-pace back on seven touches, and Wendell Smallwood has been phased out. As a home-favorite lead runner in a plus draw, Adams can build on his breakout game against a Washington defense that has surrendered 95/476/1 (5.01 YPC) rushing to running backs over the last month and allows the NFL’s fifth-most receptions per game to enemy backs (6.4) on the year. Adams is a high-end RB2 in this plum spot. … Darren Sproles’ (hamstring) return would hurt Clement and Smallwood more than lead-runner Adams. … Washington’s pass defense has also fallen apart, conceding top-12 fantasy scores to six of its last nine quarterbacks faced and 285-plus passing yards in four of its last five games. Dak Prescott carved the Skins for 9.3 yards per attempt and his season-best 121.6 passer rating on Thanksgiving. In a game Philly projects to control with Colt McCoy playing behind an injury-ruined offensive line on the other side, Carson Wentz is an underrated QB1 play against Washington.
Wentz’s Weeks 10-12 target distribution: Zach Ertz 27; Golden Tate 20; Alshon Jeffery 16; Nelson Agholor 10; Adams and Jordan Matthews 7; Clement 6; Dallas Goedert 5; Smallwood 2. … Ertz’s Week 13 matchup is Philly's toughest on paper; no tight end has reached 60 yards against Washington all year, and only seven teams have allowed fewer yards per game to Ertz’s position (39.9). Still leading all NFL tight ends in targets per game (10.0) and just 16 catches shy of Jason Witten’s single-season record for receptions among tight ends, Ertz is a matchup-irrelevant top-three TE1 each week. … Jeffery got off to a roaring start after returning from his shoulder injury, but he’s now finished below 50 yards in four straight games with especially disappointing target counts of 5 – 8 – 5 – 3 over the last month. On lowered volume, Alshon has to be downgraded to a boom-bust WR3 until/unless his usage picks back up. The Skins stopped using Josh Norman as a shadow corner with RCB Quinton Dunbar (leg) back on Thanksgiving, so Alshon should avoid Washington’s top cover man for over half of this game. Amari Cooper (8/180/2) did make the Skins pay handsomely. … The Eagles’ trade for Tate has been a disaster with 97 scoreless yards on 20 targets. It doesn’t help that Washington has played stingy slot coverage all year. In front of their home crowd in primetime, though, the Eagles may feel pressure to keep forcing targets Tate’s way. … Agholor logged season lows in snaps (72%) and targets (1) in Week 12 and hasn’t had value since Tate was acquired. … Goedert has five targets in three games since the Tate trade, although four came last week. Goedert ran only 11 routes, however, and lacks streamer appeal.
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Colt McCoy played more like a quarterback to stream defenses against than consider a fantasy starter on Thanksgiving, throwing three picks and taking eight hits with three sacks behind Washington’s makeshift line at Dallas. … Losing OGs Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao to I.R. and LT Trent Williams to thumb surgery, then last week’s rib injury has broken Washington’s once-vaunted running game. Averaging just 3.05 yards per carry over the last month, Adrian Peterson hasn’t totaled 70 yards from scrimmage since October 28 while managing touch counts of 12 – 6 – 14 – 16 – 14 in the Redskins’ five losses. As a road underdog, Peterson is a low-floor RB2/flex who will likely need a touchdown to pay off. Philly has yielded just six rushing TDs to running backs in 11 games. Chris Thompson (ribs) looks on track to return, lowering Peterson’s receiving expectation and rendering Kapri Bibbs obsolete.
Josh Doctson cleared 50 yards for the first time all year (6/66/0) in McCoy’s first start, leading the team with ten targets. Among McCoy’s 50 pass attempts this season, Doctson’s 15 lead the team. Doctson also draws the top Week 13 matchup in Washington’s pass-catcher group versus Philadelphia’s injury-ruined cornerback corps, which yields the NFL’s second-most yards per game to wide receiver units (203.0). … Doctson led Skins wideouts in Week 12 routes run (43) with Trey Quinn second (36), Maurice Harris (25) third, and Michael Floyd (20) fourth. Jamison Crowder’s (ankle) return would shake up the depth chart behind Doctson with Floyd leaving the rotation and Quinn and/or Harris losing snaps. … McCoy hit Jordan Reed for a Week 11 touchdown, then quarterbacked Reed’s season high for yardage (75) in Week 12. As injuries have taken a toll on Philly’s linebacker and safety positions, they coughed up 4/77/0 receiving to Giants blocking TE Rhett Ellison last week. Reed’s outlook has improved with McCoy replacing Alex Smith. … Vernon Davis ran only 14 routes to Reed’s 40 on Thanksgiving but dented the box score with a 53-yard touchdown bomb. Davis is a fantasy option only on single-game DFS slates.
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Redskins 14