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Mock Drafts

Norris: Feb. 2 Mock Draft

by Josh Norris
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

I do not want to hear “___ team is going to trade down.” I bet over 50 percent of these teams will want to move back on draft day. There might only be 10-15 consensus first-round talents in the 2015 class, and many many more second-round evaluations (likely even more than usual). It takes two to agree on a trade involving draft picks. If teams stick to their traditional value chart, we could see fewer and fewer deals.


However, if teams trust their own judgment and make up their own rules of value, a number of small moves and trades could take place to land specific targets rather than settle for a remaining group of players. It is Feb. 2, we have no clue.


And with that, here is how I view the first-round.


1. Tampa Bay Bucs - QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon - We will hear more about which quarterback the Bucs prefer. And then we will hear the team’s decision makers prefer the other one. I’ll stick with Mariota until news is reported otherwise.


2. Tennessee Titans - QB Jameis Winston, FSU - Many who follow the Titans are certain Ken Whisenhunt will stick by Zach Mettenberger. If I was in his position, recognizing teams are rarely in a position to select a quarterback talent like Winston or Mariota would trump my feelings about sticking with a sixth-round passer with limited mobility who is coming off back to back season which ended in injury.


3. Jacksonville Jaguars - EDGE Randy Gregory, Nebraska - Gregory does not always consistently get off the ball with force. But packaging those obvious passing downs into sustained play could lead to an edge rusher who will get the best of 1 on 1 matchups.


4. Oakland Raiders - DL Leonard Williams, USC - It is amazing how often Williams wins despite putting himself behind. Who knows if his lack of a get off is due to a reactive defensive scheme, but he compensates with power, balance and length.


5. Washington Redskins - S Landon Collins, Alabama - Washington fans might know better than any other fan base how detrimental poor safety play can be to a defense. Collins can play closer to the line or in single high/cover 3 looks, as well as flashing man to man responsibilities.


6. New York Jets - WR Amari Cooper, Alabama - Yes, Cooper would at least rank behind the top three receivers in last year’s class. Yes, I do not rank him as the top receiver in this year’s class. But I believe he is a proven commodity thanks to his separation skills in the “small” game. New decision makers in NYJ might be hard to predict.


7. Chicago Bears - EDGE Shane Ray, Missouri - There is a chance of Ray being the top EDGE prospect drafted in this class, although I would not place him there. Ray combines speed and converts it to power. A big question is if he will consistently use his hands to create separation once his initial momentum is stopped.


8. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Dante Fowler, Florida - Fowler is ahead of the game in terms of using hands,  strength and length when beating his opponent off the snap or on counters. Many prospects rely on athleticism. His Combine results will be interesting.


9. New York Giants - T La’El Collins, LSU - The Giants have a number of early picks invested in their offensive line, but adding more might not be a bad option. Especially one who could be the No. 1 tackle or guard in this class. It has worked for the Cowboys, a division rival.


10. St. Louis Rams - G Brandon Scherff, Iowa - The NFL loves to mimic what has been successful in recent years. Last year? Power and athletic tackles moving to guard (Zack Martin, Joel Bitonio). I think Scherff can stay at tackle, but a team might really value him inside. If the Rams can’t find a viable quarterback, why not continue to add to the offensive line.

 

11. Minnesota Vikings - WR Kevin White, West Virginia - Kevin White is a superior prospect to Amari Cooper and would be a perfect fit for Teddy Bridgewater since he wins in both the big and small receiver games. I was ready to project a left tackle here, but it seems the VIkings will give Matt Kalil at least one more shot.


12. Cleveland Browns - EDGE Eli Harold, Virginia - Harold will be considered a true “riser,” however, he is the definition of a don’t count it twice-er. The foundation of his evaluation right now is athleticism, so remember that when he blows up the Combine. There is so much to work with, but also so much to work on.


13. New Orleans Saints - EDGE Alvin “Bud” Dupree, Kentucky - Dupree is another tremendous athlete who has lined up on the line of scrimmage and off of it. He struggles to turn the corner, which might be a bit nitpicky, although it limits the upfield disruptions he can finish.


14. Miami Dolphins - LB Shaq Thompson, Washington - The Dolphins overpaid linebackers a few offseasons ago. They can all be cut, namely Philip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe. Move forward with Jelani Jenkins, Koa Misi and Thompson. Jenkins and Thompson could make up one of the best nickel backer duos in the NFL.


15. San Francisco 49ers - DL Arik Armstead, Oregon - Some might consider this a bit early for Armstead, and others might ask why not Danny Shelton? Things could obviously be different in 2015, but the 49ers seemed to use their true NTs on 50 percent of the snaps, at most. I think rotations are absolutely important, but Armstead would fill more snaps and a more important role as Justin Smith’s replacement.


16. Houston Texans - C Cameron Erving, FSU - Derek newton at RT had a superb season, really out of nowhere. C Chris Myers is 33 and going into the final year of his deal. Erving was a revelation at center down the stretch. Teams understand they can win with serviceable talent at the anchor spot, so this might be unrealistic if the Texans subscribe to that train of thought.

~

I do not want to hear “___ team is going to trade down.” I bet over 50 percent of these teams will want to move back on draft day. There might only be 10-15 consensus first-round talents in the 2015 class, and many many more second-round evaluations (likely even more than usual). It takes two to agree on a trade involving draft picks. If teams stick to their traditional value chart, we could see fewer and fewer deals.

 

However, if teams trust their own judgment and make up their own rules of value, a number of small moves and trades could take place to land specific targets rather than settle for a remaining group of players. It is Feb. 2, we have no clue.

 

17. San Diego Chargers - T Andrus Peat, Stanford - Peat had a better 2014 season than in 2013. He is still stronger moving forward than back. With the Chargers shifting FLuker inside and King Dunlap hitting free agency, who is playing on the edge?


18. Kansas City Chiefs - LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA - Three down linebackers are so viable to a defense. The last two years have displayed that, especially ones who can work behind a talented DL. Kendricks can do that in KC. His game against Virginia is my favorite tape of any prospect in this class.


19. Cleveland Browns - DT Danny Shelton, Washington - Shelton could be drafted much earlier, who knows. Others like him much more than I do. He will be best in a rotation where his flashes can appear to be consistency.


20. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State - I wanted to mock CB Marcus Peters here. I also wanted to mock WR Dorial Green-Beckham here. However, it seems Chip Kelly takes a liking to a certain kind of personality, and who knows if those two meet that.


21. Cincinnati Bengals - T T.J. Clemmings, Pitt - The Bengals are a different one to peg. Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith are both in contract years. Clemmings has to be more patient with his set and use his inside arm bar to prevent inside moves. He has the length and power to compensate for other deficiencies.


22. Pittsburgh Steelers - EDGE Vic Beasley, Clemson - Beasley could be selected much earlier than this. He has true edge speed and when win with that on a number of downs, but also flashes had use to extend and walk his man back. The Steelers lack speed on defense, and I think recognizing that led to the selection of Ryan Shazier last year.


23. Detroit Lions - DT Malcom Brown, Texas - I’m still working on Brown’s evaluation, but I know a number of people really like him. The offseasons of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley will say a lot. Both seem like long shots to return.


24. Arizona Cardinals - WR DeVante Parker, Louisville - Another receiver? Obviously this is only a possibility if Larry Fitzgerald moves on. However, a trio of Parker (who consistently wins in contested areas), Michael Floyd and John Brown is tantalizing.


25. Carolina Panthers - T Ereck Flowers, Miami - Flowers fits the movement skills many look for from a left tackle. I see a lot of wasted movement and question his strength on first contact to compensate for other mistakes. Still, something has to be done at left tackle. If Dave Gettleman sees an edge player worthy of this selection, I bet he chooses that over offensive tackle.


26. Baltimore Ravens - CB Marcus Peters, Washington - Peters has notable altercations in his past. Ozzie Newsome and other Ravens decision makers trust their environment and bet on talent in a number of cases. I think it works out for Peters, who has tremendous skill.

 

27. Dallas Cowboys - RB Todd Gurley, Georgia - Can Gurley help immediately? I think thats the big question. But if Demarco Murray moves on, why not select the best back in the class to run behind the line where so many early picks were invested? It is where the Cowboys win, along with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.


28. Denver Broncos - DT Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma - Will Terrance Knighton move on? Without him, there is a large void up front. Phillips could qualify as an example of planet theory depending on how he tests at the Combine. Teams tend to side with those types of talents.


29. Indianapolis Colts - S Chris Hackett, TCU - Tackling keeps Gerod Holliman out of the first right. it is some of the worst I’ve ever seen, and although it will not be his number one responsibility, Holliman will be a liability there if he continues the play he showed at Louisville. This is not an issue for Hackett, who I (obviously) really like.


30. Green Bay Packers - LB Paul Dawson, TCU - Another draft crush on mine. There are traces of Lavonte David to Dawson’s game. So much speed, so much aggression. So much good tape. The Packers might have a size cut-off for linebackers I am not aware of, however.


31. Seattle Seahawks - WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma - Green-Beckham could be selected MUCH earlier than this. The talent warrants it. We saw the importance of height and winning in contested situations in the Super Bowl (Chris Matthews). Green-Beckham can add that to the team’s offense. Seattle is so tough to predict though, because they recognize traits and gaps on the roster and draft accordingly.


32. New England Patriots - CB Quinten Rollins, Miami (OH) - Is Brandon Browner worth his $5.5 million price tag? Will Revis move on? Rollins’ movement is a sight to see, as he can slow play developing routes, be quick to the catch point and play the ball in the air.

Josh Norris
Josh Norris is an NFL Draft Analyst for Rotoworld and contributed to the Rams scouting department during training camp of 2010 and the 2011 NFL Draft. He can be found on Twitter .