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NASCAR Fantasy Cheat Sheet

The AAA 400

by Brian Brown
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series marches-on to Dover International Speedway's concrete palace for the 29th race of the season, the AAA 400.  We looked at past performances, season trends, and spoke to NASCAR contacts to shed a light on how the field will finish on Sunday.

 

 

When:  Sunday, September 28; 2:15 p.m./et.

 

 

Weather:  Sunny with a high of 79; wind out of the NE at 9 mph.  There is a ZERO percent chance of precipitation on race day.

 

 

The Track: Dover InternationalSpeedway

 

Dover is a one mile concrete oval with 24 degree banking in the turns and nine degree banking on the straight-aways. 

 

 

Key to Race:  THE MONSTER MILE

 

Dover International Speedway is the "Monster Mile".  The high-banked concrete track lets drivers run nearly wide-open the entire way around.  Getting the proper car setup is very tricky, so multiple-car teams have an even bigger advantage than normal.  Look for Penske’s stable and Jimmie Johnson to bring hot rods on Sunday.  With this being the final race of the Challenger Round after Sunday the four winless championship-qualifying drivers lowest in points will be eliminated from title contention. The remaining 12 drivers will advance to The Contender Round and their points will be reset to 3,000.  So look for lots of drivers to take chances you wouldn’t normally expect to see as they attempt to lock into a spot in The Contender Round.

 

 

Qualifying Procedures:

 

43 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. 

 

 

Fantasy Cheat Sheet:

 

Top 5

 

No. 48 Jimmie Johnson:  Johnson has dominated at Dover.  He has nine career wins and 18 top 10 finishes in 25 starts at the Monster Mile.

No. 2 Brad Keselowski:  Keselowski won the 2012 fall race at Dover and has dominated the past few months of the season.  He will battle J.J. all day long for the lead.

No. 20 Matt Kenseth:  Kenseth has brought one of the best cars to the Dover lately.  He will be very fast again this weekend.

No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has four career wins at Dover and he has cracked the top 12 in 13 of his last 17 starts at the track.  He is a great pick.

No. 4 Kevin Harvick:  Harvick has led just 36 laps at Dover since 2003, but he always finishes near the front.  He should have the No. 4 sled back inside the top five.

 

 

6 to 10

 

No. 18 Kyle Busch:  Rowdy won Dover's spring races in 2008 and in 2010.  This is the perfect track for his aggressive driving style.

No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.:  Junior has cracked the top 20 in 10 of the past 19 races at Dover.  He will be good again this weekend.

No. 22 Joey Logano:  Logano is familiar with Dover from racing there many times in the Modified and Camping World East Series.  He is a great pick in his Penske ride.

No. 99 Carl Edwards:  Edwards won the September 2007 race at Dover and has finished in the top five in seven of the last 15 races at the track.  He is a great pick to crack the top 15 this weekend. 

No. 15 Clint Bowyer:  Bowyer has finished between fourth and 17th in all but two of his career starts at Dover.  He should finish somewhere in that range again this weekend.

 

 

11 to 20

 

No. 11 Denny Hamlin:  Hamlin has had his fair share of struggles at the Monster.  He should finish outside the top 10 this weekend.

No. 14 Tony Stewart:  “Smoke” has 11 career top five finishes at Dover.  This is a good week for him to end his good run of bad luck. 

No. 31 Ryan Newman:  Newman has been great at Dover during his career.  In 22 Cup starts he has three wins.  We like him a lot this weekend.

No. 5 Kasey Kahne:  Kahne has cracked the top 10 five times in 21 career starts at Dover.  He is worth rolling the dice.

No. 16 Greg Biffle:  Biffle won the September 2008 race at Dover and has been one of the better cars the past 19 trips to the track.  He will be in striking distance of the leaders all day.  

No. 41 Kurt Busch:  Busch has finished well in three of the past seven races at Dover.  He should flirt with the top 15 this visit to the Monster Mile.

No. 42 Kyle Larson:  Larson has been amazing the since The Chase started.  He would rank third on the Chase Grid with his awesome showings at Chicagoland and NHMS if he was in the hunt.

No. 78 Martin Truex Jr.:  Truex Jr. won the spring 2007 race at Dover and has been great at the place he considers his home-track.  He is a good pick this weekend.

No. 17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.:  Slick Rick struggled earlier this year at Dover, but he is worth using in most leagues.

No. 47 A.J. Allmendinger:  Dinger has averaged a 23rd place finish at Dover during his career.  He is safe to use for those of you in the deepest leagues.

 

 

21 to 30

 

No. 43 Aric Almirola:  Almirola finished 12th at Dover and sixth June 2012.  He is worth using in most leagues.

No. 27 Paul Menard:  Menard has averaged a 20th place finish at Dover during his career, even with his strong finish earlier this year.  He is just a nice fourth driver in most fantasy leagues.

No. 1 Jamie McMurray:  McMurray has been decent at Dover during his career.  This is a good weekend to sneak the No. 1 driver into your lineup.

No. 55 Brian Vickers:  Vickers has had plenty of past success at Dover.  This is a good time to use him. 

No. 3 Austin Dillon:  Dillon finished 27th in his Dover debut and 20th earlier this year.  He will finish around this same this visit.

No. 9 Marcos Ambrose:  Ambrose was awesome at Dover in 2012.  He will notch another top 25 finish.

No. 13 Casey Mears:  Mears should sneak the No. 13 car into the top 30 with a little luck.

No. 10 Danica Patrick:  Don’t be tempted to use her on the Monster Mile.

No. 34 David Ragan:  Ragan has averaged a 25th place finish at Dover.  But we still can’t recommend him.

No. 36 Reed Sorenson:  Sorenson will be doing well to crack the top 30.

 

 

Field Fillers:

 

No. 51 Justin Allgaier

No. 26 Cole Whitt

No. 98 Josh Wise

No. 38 David Gilliland

No. 83 Ryan Truex

No. 33 David Stremme

No. 40 Landon Cassill

No. 7 Michael Annett

No. 23 Alex Bowman

No. 34 David Ragan

No. 32 J.J. Yeley

No. 44 Timmy Hill

No. 66 Joe Nemechek

 

 

 My Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Team for this Week:

 

A. Jimmie Johnson

B. Joey Logano

B. Brad Keselowski

C. Kyle Larson