The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the 36th and final race of the season, the Ford EcoBoost 400. Brian Brown took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke with NASCAR contacts to predict how the field should finish on Sunday.
When: Sunday, November 22; 3:16 p.m./et.
Weather: Scattered Thunderstorms with a high around 81; wind out of the NW at 9 mph. There is a 60 percent chance of precipitation.
The Track: Homestead-MiamiSpeedway
Homesteadis a 1.5 mile oval. It has medium 18, 19, and 20 degree banking on the turns.
Key to Race: GORDON, HARVICK, BUSCH, OR TRUEX
We are down to the Final Four for NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup. Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr. are the four contenders remaining. Harvick is the top diver at Homestead. He has 12 top 10 finishes in his career and has been great at 1.5 mile ovals so far this year. Gordon has been very fast at Homestead during his career and it would make an amazing story if he can walk-away with a championship. Joey Logano is a great pick outside the final four. He has owned 1.5 mile ovals so far this year.
45 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
No. 4 Kevin Harvick: Harvick won at Homestead last year and is the favorite again this visit to South Florida.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch dominated the 2013 race at Homestead and has been very fast in the past two 1.5 mile ovals. He is a great option.
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has never won at Homestead, but he is great on 1.5 mile ovals.
No. 22 Joey Logano: Logano won at Charlotte and Kansas both 1.5 mile tracks earlier this season. He will be one of the top drivers again this weekend.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon won at Homestead in 2013 and is the sentimental favorite as a walk-off champion this weekend.
6 to 10
No. 78 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. has been very good at Homestead during his career and it would be an amazing story if he wins this weekend.
No. 20 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is back after his suspension. He has been very fast at Homestead and is a nice choice.
No. 31 Ryan Newman: Newman has been great at Homestead in four of the last five years. He is a value pick this weekend.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has finished in the top four in four of the past nine races at Homestead, including wins in 2013 and 2009. We like his chances.
No. 2 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has been fast at 1.5 mile ovals this season. He is a nice choice.
11 to 20
No. 19 Carl Edwards: Edwards has visited victory lane twice at Homestead. He is a great choice this weekend.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has won three of the past 11 Homestead races. This weekend is a good time to sneak the No. 16 onto your roster.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has finished better than 10th at Homestead just one time. He will flirt with the top 10 again this weekend.
No. 41 Kurt Busch: Busch has four top five finishes in 14 career starts at Homestead including a win in 2004. He should finish inside the top 15 this weekend.
No. 5 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has four top 10 finishes in 11 career starts at Homestead. He is an okay pick.
No. 42 Kyle Larson: Larson should have no problem with a fast finish at Homestead this year.
No. 27 Paul Menard: Menard finished fourth last year and 11th at Homestead in 2012. He is a sleeper pick.
No. 15 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is a “Lame Duck” driver. Avoid him.
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Smoke has averaged a 17th place finish at Homestead the last four races. We expect he will be slower than his average this race.
No. 47 A.J. Allmendinger: Dinger has averaged a 24th place finish at Homestead in his career. He is just a fourth driver.
21 to 30
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: McMurray finished fifth at Homestead last year. He is a nice sleeper choice for those in deep leagues.
No. 43 Aric Almirola: Almirola finished inside the top 20 the past three races at Homestead. He is a good sleeper choice.
No. 17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse hasn’t been a fantasy option at Homestead so far in his career.
No. 3 Austin Dillon: Dillon finished 25th in his first Cup start at Homestead. We expect a similar finish this visit.
No. 6 Trevor Bayne: Bayne has averaged a 33rd place finish at Homestead in his career. We don’t think he is worth using this weekend.
No. 10 Danica Patrick: She isn’t worth taking a chance on this weekend.
No. 9 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish has never done much at Homestead.
No. 13 Casey Mears: Mears has averaged a 27th place finish at Homestead during his career. He is only worth taking a gamble on for those of you in the deepest of leagues.
No. 21 Ryan Blaney: Blaney has been terrible the past two races this year. He is a risky choice.
No. 55 David Ragan: Ragan has averaged a 24th place finish at Homestead, but his success came when he was with Roush. He isn’t much of an option.
No. 33 Ty Dillon
No. 51 Justin Allgaier
No. 35 Cole Whitt
No. 38 David Gilliland
No. 40 Landon Cassill
No. 46 Michael Annett
No. 32 Josh Wise
No. 95 Michael McDowell
No. 26 J.J. Yeley
No. 23 Jeb Burton
No. 34 Brett Moffitt
No. 62 Reed Sorenson
No. 83 Matt DiBenedetto
No. 98 Ryan Preece
No. 7 Alex Bowman
My Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Team for this Week:
B. Kurt Busch
C. Ty Dillon