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Kevin Harvick
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NASCAR Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Hollywood Casino 400 Cheat Sheet

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: October 16, 2019, 7:42 pm ET

The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway is a cutoff race and that means the bubble drivers will be going for broke.

We’ve seen on multiple occasions during the past two seasons what can happen when teams push the envelope. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been a difficult race to predict in the past and Dover International Speedway was downright catastrophic for several drivers this season. As for Kansas, there is no guarantee what might happen.

Non-playoff drivers are also running out of time to showcase their talents before the season ends and that may cause them to take some risks as well. After losing in a photo finish last week at Talladega Superspeedway, Ryan Newman is hungrier than ever. Jimmie Johnson’s long string of winless races weighs heavily on his mind. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. would like to impress his new owners while making sure Jack Roush realizes what he’s giving up.

All of that can make this race a little difficult to predict. Then again, it’s not Talladega.


1. Kevin Harvick
Harvick has not been a top choice on 1.5-mile tracks for a while, but he's dominated Kansas in the past and finished second in the most recent outing at Vegas.

2. Brad Keselowski
While he has been uneven on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, Keselowski has five top-fives on them this year including victories at Atlanta and Kansas this spring.

3. Chase Elliott
He can still advance on points if either Logano or Keselowski stumble, but the most likely way for last year's winner of this race to advance to Round 3 is for Elliott to take the checkers in the Hollywood Casino 400.

4. Kyle Busch
If Busch can keep his emotions under control this week, there is no reason he won't contend for a top-five. He ran well in the spring Digital Ally 400 before making multiple unforced errors.

5. Kyle Larson
Larson has come on strong in the last three races on 1.5-milers with two top-fives and an eighth at Kansas. That mirrors his last three attempts on this track.

6. Joey Logano
Logano has a pair of wins on this track in 2014/2015. He finished third in 2016 and 2018, but the remainder of his recent efforts ended 15th or worse.

7. Ryan Blaney
After last week's win at Talladega, Blaney will be relaxed and focused. Even if he does not challenge for a win at Kansas, he is likely to earn a lot of stage points and that will make him a good value.

8. Martin Truex Jr.
Truex has two wins on 1.5-mile tracks and a second-place finish, but he also has three results outside the top 10. It's hard to know exactly which driver is going to show up this week.

9. Clint Bowyer
His hometown track has not been uniformly good for Bowyer. Since 2013 he has only one top-five in his last 11 attempts, but that came in the spring Digital Ally 400.

10. William Byron
Byron has swept the top 20 in his eight attempts on 1.5-mile tracks with three of his last four landing inside the top 10. His worst effort came at Kansas this spring, however, with a 20th.

11. Aric Almirola
Almirola started the season with a solid run on 1.5-mile tracks, finishing in the top 10 in the first three attempts. Since then, he's failed to crack that mark in his last five attempts.

12. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin's victory at Texas this spring makes him a driver to watch in practice, but the majority of his efforts on 1.5-mile tracks have landed outside the top 10.

13. Jimmie Johnson
The once and possibly future King of the "cookie-cutter" tracks could surprise a lot of players this week. Johnson has four top-10s and an 11th in his last six 1.5-mile attempts.

14. Alex Bowman
Bowman has improved on the 1.5-mile tracks this year and enters the weekend with four top-10s in his last five starts including a dramatic victory at Chicagoland and a second at Kansas.

15. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Two of Stenhouse's four top-10s this season came on 1.5-mile tracks. Now that he has announced he has a fulltime ride next year with JTG-Daugherty Racing, he will be in a positive state of mind.

16. Chris Buescher
Half of Buescher's eight attempts on 1.5-mile tracks this year have ended in top-10s. A similar result this week will make him one of the best values in the game.

17. Kurt Busch
Busch was one of our go-to drivers early in the season with four consecutive top-10s. He won the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway. But he also has a pair of sub-25th-place results in his last for efforts on this track.

18. Daniel Suarez
Suarez has hovered around the top 20 most of the season on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks with three top-10s to show for his efforts. He was 14th this spring at Kansas.

19. Ryan Newman
It took a little while for Newman to find his groove on the 1.5-mile tracks, but once he did he rattled off a pair of top-10s in his last two starts.

20. Paul Menard
With a best of 11th and five results in the teens, Menard has been consistent on the 1.5-milers for most of the season. He finished only 24th at Kansas, however.

21. Erik Jones
Jones has struggled enough in the last 45 days that his efforts make him a "C" List driver. He has potential with Joe Gibbs Racing power under the hood, but he needs to regain fantasy owners' trust.

22. Austin Dillon
Dillon finished 10th at Chicagoland and 12th at Vegas. He's improving on the 1.5-mile tracks, but the majority of his efforts landed in the back half of the pack.

23. Daniel Hemric
With four top-20s and a 21st in eight attempts on this track type in 2019, Hemric should be a solid mid-pack pick for the Hollywood Casino 400 this week.

24. Michael McDowell
McDowell got off to a slow start this season with a 37th at Atlanta and 30th at Vegas. Since then, his worst attempt on the 1.5-mile tracks has been the 26th he earned this spring at Kansas.

25. Bubba Wallace
If Wallace qualifies around the 30th-place mark, he could turn into a good Draft Kings value because he has finished in the top 25 or just outside that mark in the majority of his 1.5-mile starts.

26. Ty Dillon
As we predicted, Dillon was one of the most pleasant surprises last week at Talladega. The similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks are a completely different animal, however.

27. Corey LaJoie
Dark horses do not perform particularly well on unrestricted, intermediate speedways, but LaJoie has a sweep of the top 30 on the 1.5 mile versions with 28th-place results in his last two attempts at Kentucky and Las Vegas.

28. David Ragan
A 16th at Atlanta and a 15th at Charlotte mark Ragan as a driver to watch this week, but he also has several results in the high-20s. His ultimate value will depend on his practice times.

29. Matt DiBenedetto
DiBenedetto has been a great value many times this year, but those have come on drivers' tracks and not the high-speed unrestricted, intermediate speedways.

30. Matt Tifft
Only one of Tifft's eight attempts on this track type in his rookie season ended outside the top 30. He was a solid value this spring with a 21st in the Digital Ally 400.

31. Ryan Preece
Six of Preece's eight attempts on 1.5-mile tracks this year have ended in the 20s. He almost cracked that the top 20 at Kentucky this summer with his 21st-place effort.

32. Parker Kligerman
Kligerman made a few similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track start this spring with a best of 26th at Charlotte and that earns him some attention for the Hollywood Casino 400.

33. Ross Chastain
Chastain has been consistent on this track type with the majority of his 1.5-mile starts ended between 26th and 33rd.

34. JJ Yeley
With only one start on this track type in 2019 it's hard to know what Yeley will do this week, but he finished 32nd at Vegas in the playoff opener a few weeks back.

35. Landon Cassill
With a pair of top-30s on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks and a few results just outside that mark, Cassill could provide a decent return on your salary cap investment.

36. Reed Sorenson
He has not burned up the track, but Sorenson has started all but two of the eight races on 1.5-mile tracks this year with a 35th in the spring Kansas race.

37. Joey Gase
Three of Gase's four attempts on this track type ended in 38th-place finishes including his spring attempt at Kansas in the Digital Ally 400.

38. Austin Theriault
Theriault has not made a start on one of the 1.5-mile tracks, but he was a decent value at Michigan this August with a 32nd-place result.

39. Josh Bilicki
Bilicki has made only one start this season on a 1.5-mile track. He finished 33rd at Chicagoland. This will be his eighth start of the year, however, and he is getting seat time at least.

40. Timmy Hill
Hill started 39th and finished 39th this spring at Kansas. It's hard to imagine he will do much better this week.

Drivers Most Accurately
Predicted This Year

 

Avg.
Difference

Times Within 3

 

Landon Cassill

4.9

15

Ross Chastain

5.0

14

David Ragan

5.1

11

Martin Truex Jr.

5.3

13

Matt Tifft

5.3

16

Ty Dillon

6.1

13

Paul Menard

6.1

10

Chris Buescher

6.1

11

Aric Almirola

6.5

18

Denny Hamlin

6.5

17

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.