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NBA Fantasy Trends

NBA Trade Deadline Fantasy Winners and Losers

by Mike Gallagher
Updated On: February 7, 2020, 12:03 pm ET

The trade deadline is always one of the best days for fantasy hoops with waiver-wire adds at any depth of your league. We can also see your turn into waiver-wire fodder, or that guy you’ve been stashing all season could wind up helping you win a fantasy title.

Coming into the day, it was expected to be a quiet afternoon with talk of Andre Drummond staying put, and it didn’t sound like much else was going to go down with so many contenders already positioned with their rosters. Well, that changed when D’Angelo Russell was traded for Andrew Wiggins in a huge deal involving other players and several draft picks. Plus, Andre Drummond was basically given away with the Cavs picking him up. This was a great day for Wolves fans and they’re arguably the biggest winners in reality, but that’s not what this column is all about.

It’s all about fantasy winners and losers here. Below, is a list of players to add from shallower leagues (8-10 teams) to deeper leagues (16+) based on moves from the deadline. After the adds section to kick it off, I went over players who were likely already owned and saw their values increase, and then finished up with players who lost value today. I’ll also be hopping on the pod tomorrow go break everything down. 

Follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher.
 

Winners (adds in shallower to deeper leagues)

Christian Wood - Oh baby. It’s been stash season since December in 12-team leagues, and it all paid off with Andre Drummond headed out of town. Here are his per-36 stats without Andre Drummond this season: 22.9 points, 12.0 boards, 1.4 dimes, 1.1 steals, 1.9 blocks and 1.1 treys on a 60/36/75 shooting line. He has early-round upside going forward and nothing else really needs to be said. Congrats to those who stashed him.

De’Anthony Melton - We’ve spent all season talking about his per-36 stats: 15.9 points, 7.5 boards, 6.0 dimes, 2.5 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.0 treys on a 46/31/84 shooting line. Tasty stuff. On Wednesday, it was clear big things are headed Melton’s way following Solomon Hill and Jae Crowder getting pulled for trade reasons. Melton played 13.2 minutes next to Dillon Brooks. Plus, the Grizzlies have an outstanding +19.6 net rating with Brooks and Melton on the floor tonight, and Melton has been a thief in his time next to Brooks with his 3.1 steals per 36 minutes over that 138-minute sample. He's a very strong add in even super shallow leagues.

Troy Brown - The Jordan McRae move is huge for Brown, who now figures to be a huge part of the second unit, or he could even start with huge minutes. In 335 minutes without Bradley Beal and Jordan McRae, Troy Brown has per-36 stats of 20.4 points, 7.2 boards, 4.4 dimes, 2.9 steals, and 1.4 treys on a 46/33/85 shooting line. Sure, Shabazz Napier is there, but Napier only has an 18.2 usage rate, and he’s gone on stretches where he can play off ball. It’s also worth a mention that the Wizards have run no-PG lineups with Beal for 17 minutes on the season with Brown being the perimeter guy next to him. With Thomas Bryant (foot) hurt again and the Wizards set to run smaller lineups, Brown’s minutes should certainly be there now, and don’t forget that coach Scott Brooks called Bradley Beal “banged up” last week and he could be a possible shutdown candidate as the Wizards look to the lottery. 

Damion Lee - If we’re tying in the news from the morning with Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks headed to the 2-1-5 (that’s Philly to those not from the area or fans of The Roots), Lee is a big winner to lose tons of competition for minutes. Lee has also been a better scorer by 2.4 points per 36 without Burks, but it’s really all about the playing time volume with Jacob Evans also out of town. Lee could eventually get a roadblock in Stephen Curry (hand) possibly coming back, but Lee’s clear path makes him an easy add basically everywhere. 

Marquese Chriss - Not again. Like his second season in Phoenix, Chriss finds himself in prime position to produce. Over his last six, he averaged 11.3 points, 5.0 boards, 1.3 dimes, 0.8 steals, 2.0 blocks and 0.3 treys on a 60/29/77 shooting line. Despite how he’s burned enough people in fantasy to have an arson division after him, Chriss looks like he has to be added now. He should be converted to a standard deal any day now.

Eric Paschall - Coach Steve Kerr has said for a while now that he wants to try to get some more minutes with Paschall at the three. He does have 381 minutes next to Draymond Green on the season compared to 881 without him -- also 113 minutes of a PF/C Dray-Paschall combo. It's a developmental year and Paschall is clearly their best young player.

Ky Bowman - So the Warriors only have one point guard to play for Saturday? Bowman has been solid as a starter with 11.9 points, 2.8 boards, 3.8 dimes, 1.6 steals and 1.4 treys on a 47/41/64 shooting line. Maybe the Warriors find a way make him more of a secondary force in the offense, but just the lack of competition from natural PGs makes him an attractive target. His two-way deal should be converted very soon, too.

Shabazz Napier - He Undertaker.GIF’d it here with his value dying earlier this week, and now he’s likely looking at a split with Ish Smith. It’s also very noteworthy that Brooks hasn’t been afraid to go super small, using Isaiah Thomas next to Ish Smith for 68 minutes on the season. With Thomas Bryant (foot) hurt again, Napier should have a pretty decent path to 28ish minutes in a top-five offense for pace.

Malik Beasley - Assuming he comes off the bench, Beasley could absolutely feast in the second unit -- he could also be solid as a starter. Josh Okogie (more below) has played really well lately and will be major competition for him, but there’s a very good chance Okogie plays a lot of four. We’ve seen some Beasley explosions over the years and he was very efficient last year with an 18/4/2 line with 3.1 treys on 47/40/85, so the change of scenery has to be a good thing. I’d add him to see how it shakes out.

John Henson - He’s coming off a good game with 10 points, 11 rebounds, two dimes, one steal, two blocks and one 3-pointer (!) in 31 minutes against the Thunder, so props for the showcase. He’s possibly going to compete with Thon Maker and maybe Christian Wood, but Henson has always had attractive per-minute upside for his blocks -- 2.8 blocks per 36 this year, at least 2.0 since rookie season, and cleared 4.0 per 36 twice. If you want blocks from today and Chriss is gone, he’s your guy.

Josh Okogie - The lone Thibs guy left standing. He’s coming off a career-high 23 points on Wednesday, and he’s had a great week. Over his last three, he averaged 16.0 points, 3.3 boards, 1.0 dimes, 2.0 steals and 0.3 treys on a 54/11/94 shooting line. Okogie isn’t taking any mid-range shots anymore, and Jarrett Culver has been flat-out awful. I’d prefer the mystery box on Beasley and he’s certainly has the higher upside, but I wouldn’t totally dismiss Okogie as a guy who will see more minutes with alluring steals upside. I’ll add I’m out on Jarrett Culver (more below). 

Naz Reid - Pardon my summer league love, but Reid was one of the more impressive low-end guys to show he can do some damage in the high post and down low. He’s fairly quick for his size and he’s made some really nice plays to get teammates the rock. On Wednesday, it was huge that he saw a whopping 10 minutes next to Karl-Anthony Towns after sitting at a zero. He’s been a sneaky stats guy with per-36 stats of 22.4 points, 7.2 boards, 2.7 dimes, 1.1 steals, 1.7 blocks and 3.6 treys. Yes, his fouls are an issue at 7.4 per 36, but that’s not a concern for a guy who’s never really at risk of fouling out anyway. It feels like the Wolves really want to see what he can do this season. He hasn't disappointed yet.

Juancho Hernangomez - It would appear that Juancho is the heavy favorite to start at power forward, but starting isn’t everything. He has 149 minutes without a Denver PF next to him, and it sure does leave a lot to be desired based on per-36 stats: 7.7 points, 8.0 boards, 0.2 blocks, 0.5 steals and 0.5 treys on a 27/10/55 shooting line -- he’s 9/8/2 with little defense per 36 on the season. The Wolves style of play certainly suits him, but Juancho’s lack of defensive stats and Reid’s recent play gives me a lot of pause on adding him.

Moe Harkless - He finds himself in a great spot right now and figures to get more minutes. Last season with the Blazers, Harkless put up per-36 stats of 11.7 points, 6.8 boards, 1.9 dimes, 1.7 steals, 1.3 blocks and 0.8 treys on a 49/28/67 shooting line -- they’re down this year on a deep Clippers roster. Harkless went to nearby St. John’s and betting against Kevin Knox seems like a smart move right now. We’re talking pretty deep here and you probably want to see how it plays out after one game, but he certainly has a path to value. You can also change your team name to How Can You Be Moe Harkless.

Kyle Anderson - He’s pretty boring as a scorer, but he can do a little of everything with a per-36 line of 10/8/5 with 1.7 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.8 treys. I’d obviously rather have Melton here, but Anderson could be sneaky until (if?) Justise Winslow comes back.

Kevon Looney - It’s basically been a lost season to this point with Looney sitting at 11.1 minutes per game over his 13 contests. He did have his best game of the season on Wednesday with a season-high 11 points, adding five rebounds, three assists and one block -- also took two 3-pointers. Before all these injuries, coach Steve Kerr said he had big plans for Looney, so now there could be an opportunity there for him as he splits center minutes with Marquese Chriss.

Andre Iguodala - He’s on a roster that will play him, so he has to be a winner. Iguodala’s golf swing might be better than his jump shot right now, so it’s going to take a while for him to get rolling. If you wanted to stash him, you’re likely going to have to wait until March before he’s a guy you’ll trust in your lineup -- maybe not at all. 

Additionally here, it’s tough to say winners or losers on the rest of the Heat guys. However, Jimmy Butler (shoulder) and Meyers Leonard (ankle) getting hurt make Derrick Jones Jr. a must have while Kelly Olynyk is someone to watch.

James Johnson - He’s in the mix to compete for the power forward spot, but we’ll see if the Wolves actually play him. The Wolves are likely hoping that Johnson does not pick up in his player option, and perhaps they don’t play him to make him mad. Although, he has a black belt, so he’s basically behind Bruce Banner for guys you’d want to make angry.

Josh Jackson - Minutes could be there now and he’s been decent in his four games. Per 36, he’s at 15/8/2 with 1.6 steals, but we’re talking deep leagues here.

Justise Winslow - There’s very little to get excited about here with Winslow at just 11 games this season due to his bad back. The Grizzlies made it extremely clear they love him because they basically said they’re willing to sit out free agency next year buy out Dion Waiters and pay Gorgui Dieng at $17.3 million for next year. 

Jordan Poole - If he wasn’t shooting 28.2 FG% and somehow added more stats than scoring, he’d be someone to check out. He should be in the rotation now that Jacob Evans is gone as the Warriors are so thin at guard, but Poole just isn’t good.

Jake Layman - A floor-spacing guy who could fit on this roster, and he’s starting to get over his foot injury. This PF competition should be very interesting and Layman isn’t the worst bet to win it.

Winners (non-add division, no particular order)

Robert Covington - His knee issues were a major red flag coming into the season, so getting off a bad team to lower his shutdown risk is tremendous. He came up with the Rio Grande Valley Vipers prior to the Lord Sam Hinkie days, and he makes a whole lot of sense as a PF/C combo with P.J. Tucker. Lord RoCo has also been really good in 2020, averaging 12.8 points, 6.0 boards, 1.2 dimes, 1.7 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.3 treys. The Wolves were basically adopting the Rockets’ style, so it should be a seamless fit. 

D’Angelo Russell - He gets to play with his buddy! And if he’s liked George Costanza, he likes to be liked, so that has to be a positive for him with the Wolves wanting him -- the Wolves were really after him in the summer, too. Russell doesn’t have to worry about a looming Stephen Curry. The Warriors were also extremely cautious with Russell and sat him perhaps more than they should’ve, so that may not be as likely. 

Brandon Clarke - He should see slightly more minutes with Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill. When Clarke and Crowder are on the floor together, they’ve been next to either Jonas Valanciunas or Jaren Jackson Jr. for almost all of them (82 minutes all season), so losing that combo should open up a few more four-man opportunities.

Danilo Gallinari - When a trade candidate is playing well in his current role, he is a winner when he stays. Gallinari has fit in extremely well as the OKC four man and they’re going to see if they can win a round in the playoffs. He’s a possible sell-high guy because he’s such an injury risk, but he’s looking like a great value from drafts if he keeps it rolling. Side note: OKC is good (Dennis Schroder lineup with starters is best 100+ minute lineup in NBA at +32.8 net rating; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in minutes, too!).

Davis Bertans - It did make some sense to hedge for Bertans owners with a lot of teams wanting to add him and his elite skill set as a large man who is very, very good at shooting, but he stays put in a great spot. The Wizards system is great for him and I’d expect him to trend up while Thomas Bryant is hurt.

James Harden - It’s kind of hard to buy Harden as a winner considering he’s arguably the No. 1 player in fantasy (Dame comin’!), but this week was good for him. Per 36 without Capela: 40.3 points, 7.5 boards, 6.5 dimes, 1.9 steals, 1.0 blocks and 5.2 treys in a devilishly-good 666 minutes. All those stats besides dimes are up from when he’s with Capela (31/5/8 with 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks). Expect some Harden heaters like we were seeing in December.

Karl-Anthony Towns - KAT was close to Robert Covington, and now he gets to play with Russell. A happy KAT is a KAT less likely to miss games, and it does make a lot of sense to give him plenty of reps on this new-look team. KAT’s per-minute stats shouldn’t really change too much with it being a wash on Wiggins for D-Lo, so it’s all about limiting his downside.

Elfrid Payton - The Knicks didn’t unload him and he’s been in a productive role. Solid win here.

Enes Kanter - He’s in a very good spot right now with Daniel Theis (ankle) and Robert Williams (hip) still ailing. Kanter did fire out the eyes emoji leading up to the deadline, but he should have some value until Theis is back.

 

Losers 

Tristan Thompson - Not good here. Andre Drummond is one of the most durable players in the NBA, and Thompson is not expected to be bought out. Reports on Wednesday said that Thompson is likely done with the Cavs, so he could be looking at a handful of DNPs going forward. I’d drop him for more than half of the adds above. Basically all of them except for the last 5-6. 

Marcus Morris - Despite the comments from the Knicks over the last month, anyone who believed the Knicks were actually going to keep Morris probably plays for the gulli-Bulls. (/ducks). He has been a perpetual sell-high player since October, and now he’s a drop candidate. 

Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III - The Warriors were almost always going to trade these guys since the day we got news Stephen Curry (hand) was going to lose minutes. Perhaps Burks could have some value until Josh Richardson is back, but there are just too many other guys out there on the waiver wire from this news. Same for GR3. Drop ‘em. Also, basically every bench 76ers player is a loser, and you could argue the starters are mild losers because they could have their minutes slightly cut or even sit out games now that coach Brett Brown has some tools in the shed -- Ben Simmons (5) and Tobias Harris (9) are top 10 in minutes this season.

Kyle Kuzma - Another huge loser here with Kuzma stuck behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Per 36 without AD and Bron, Kuzma sits at 25/6/3. He should still be fine as a scoring guy, but his nine- and eight-cat upside is no bueno.

Jordan McRae - Yuck. A guy who looked like he was headed for some delicious post-deadline run, he catches a bad one. The Nuggets have depth on the wing and Monte Morris can play some minutes next to Jamal Murray, so sadly McRae is an easy drop candidate. It’s a tough pill to swallow with his return set to come tomorrow after missing time with his ankle injury.

Andre Drummond- He might not be a loser from the trade, but generally taking a player out of a favorable situation creates a lot of risk. Maybe the Cavs don’t want to use him in the same way the Pistons did. Maybe his minutes drop with a better backup behind him. You could make a case that he’s playing for a contract to up his motivation, but Drummond’s upside goes down and his floor goes way down as he adjusts to his new teammates. 

Andrew Wiggins - Could he see more shots? Sure. Has he been better when more shots go his way? Not so much. Without KAT next to him, Wiggins sees a -4.7 TS% change and a +0.7 usage rate increase while his other stats don’t really change much. He’s still on a bad team and the Warriors are very likely to try to trade him in the offseason, so he’s facing shutdown risk a la Anthony Davis. The good news is the Warriors will likely try to get him as many shots as they can when he’s active to be a bit of a showcase, but of course a possible Stephen Curry looming could also be a factor here. As a side note, this fit seems awful. Why would the Warriors want a bad defender and subpar shooter with their core guys? It seemed like DLo was a goner and I think the same for Wiggins this summer.

Larry Nance and Kevin Porter Jr. - It really couldn’t have gone worse for Nance here, and I’m not nearly as excited about KPJ either. Nance had played some SF earlier in his career, but he has zero minutes as a SF/PF combo with Love all season. With the current Cavs roster, Nance is now going to have to the majority of his minutes without Love, so he needs Love to miss games to be reliable. KPJ is going to need the Cavs to really dial back Cedi Osman or a Love shutdown to have a real chance to produce consistently.

Kevin Love - If you’re trying to figure out who is this year’s Anthony Davis as a guy shut down to hold trade value over the summer, it’s Love. The Cavs looks like they’re going to try to bring back Andre Drummond, and Love’s injury history is lengthy. If you can sell him in fantasy for 66-75 cents on the dollar, I’d do it in a heartbeat.

Danuel House and Ben McLemore - Credit to both of these guys for turning in great seasons so far, but Robert Covington is really good. Expect RoCo to cut into the values of House and McLemore in a big way.

Landry Shamet - The Clippers didn’t need to trade Shamet to land Morris, and now he finds himself with more competition in said Morris. Shamet could still be somewhat fantasy relevant with Patrick Beverley (groin) aggravating his injury on Wednesday, and he could be a nice stream until Morris is acquainted with the team. I’d still drop him for the majority of winners.  

The young Bulls - Apparently they were too busy listing guys as probable to make a trade today. It made a lot of sense to get off Thaddeus Young’s contract, or at least get something for Denzel Valentine. With Kris Dunn (knee) out, it would’ve been cool to see Shaquille Harrison find a path to minutes. 

Sekou Doumbouya - Markieff Morris and Thon Maker are still around, so 2F Doum’s upside is not great. He’s a pretty easy drop, especially with a rough couple of weeks -- a few exceptions.

Cody Martin, some Hornets forwards - Maybe we still see Marvin Williams bought out, but it would’ve been nice to know he was gone to up the value of Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington. I still fully believe in Bridges, and Martin is still a guy I’d consider streaming. The Hornets have to do something, right?

Bruce Brown, Svi Mykhailiuk and Luke Kennard - The Pistons sitting on their hands with the exception of Drummond is a rough one here. Brown may not be an easy drop here with Derrick Rose currently ailing, but his late-season upside isn’t nearly as rosy.

Jarrett Culver - It’s hard to be any worse after coach Ryan Saunders kept him on the bench over the weekend, and Culver has been a disaster as a shooter lately. In his last three games, he’s somehow 8-of-28 in the paint, and now he loses some ball-handling chances with D’Angelo Russell in the mix. Maybe I’m wrong here and he gets it together because we’ve seen him go on runs, but I’ll let someone else find out.

Clint Capela - An injured valuable player going to a bad team is usually trouble. Last week, coach Mike D’Antoni said that it could take anywhere from a day to a month for Capela to get over his plantar fasciitis, and the old saying is the best remedy for that injury is rest. With the playoff carrot in front of Capela’s team gone, his shutdown risk goes way up.

Monte Morris - We’ve seen coach Mike Malone use Morris in a two-PG lineup a bunch, headlined by his 42 minutes on Wednesday while Jamal Murray also got up to 43 -- yes, Nuggets were thin. With Jordan McRae in the mix, Malone may not be as prone to looking to Monte like that, especially with how banged up the Nuggets are right now. 

Aaron Holiday - It would’ve been cool to see him get traded to get a featured role, but he’s in a logjam right now with Victor Oladipo back in action. He’ll likely lose even more minutes once T.J. Warren gets back, to.

Isaiah Thomas - Maybe he lands somewhere he can find minutes, but for now there’s no reason to use him. He wasn’t very good in DC anyway.

Omari Spellman - Major props to Spellman after losing weight this summer to give himself value in the NBA. He has Karl-Anthony Towns in front of him for his primary position, and he’ll have a whole lot of competition for minutes at PF.

Fringe Clips - Morris really cuts into guys like JaMychal Green, Rodney McGruder and others.

John Collins - A low-key loser here just because Collins has been excellent at center. Per 36, Collins put up 23.0 points, 13.7 boards, 1.2 dimes, 2.3 blocks and 1.3 treys on a 55/36/77 shooting line. Again, hardly a big loser, but his upside dips a bit even if it’s just Dedmon affecting him.

Cam Reddish - The Hawks are going to be running more John Collins at PF, which pushes De’Andre Hunter over to the three more often while Kevin Huerter has been great as a two. Perhaps Reddish can still find minutes if coach Lloyd Pierce really runs a tight rotation, but all the momentum he had built up last week gets a big setback here.

Hawks centers - There are just too many of them right now, so it’s really tough to get excited about Dewayne Dedmon, Damian Jones and Bruno Fernando. Maybe take a look at Dedmon until Capela comes back.

P.J. Tucker - He’s not really a “loser” in the classic sense, but it’s interesting that he’s not productive as a five. He was always a minutes monster, but it’s not like his stats are better at center. Per 36, Tucker is at 7.5 points, 8.6 boards, 2.5 boards, 1.3 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.3 treys. 

Derrick Rose - It’s good news that he could still see his high-volume role, but it’s not great that he’s hurt right now. He’s an easy shutdown risk.

Jordan McLaughlin - He got a nice stream in for Wednesday, but D’Angelo is going to hold it down now.

 

Happy hunting and check back tomorrow for the pod!
 

Mike Gallagher
Mike Gallagher has covered fantasy hoops for eight years and this season is his second with Rotoworld. You can find him on Twitter talking about a player's shots at the rim.