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NFL Draft Betting

CFB futures market: Week 10

by Thor Nystrom
Updated On: November 4, 2020, 5:51 pm ET

Every Monday, I’ll provide updated Heisman and national title odds from PointsBet along with thoughts on potential angles.

 

Heisman odds

Player Position Team This week Last week    
Justin Fields QB Ohio State Buckeyes +150 +200    
Mac Jones QB Alabama Crimson Tide +150 +600    
Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson Tigers +250 -110    
Zach Wilson QB BYU Cougars +3000 N/A    
Kyle Trask QB Florida Gators +4000 +2000    
DeVonta Smith WR Alabama Crimson Tide +4000 +2500    
Sean Clifford QB Penn State Nittany Lions +5000 +5000    
Najee Harris RB Alabama Crimson Tide +5000 +2500    
Travis Etienne RB Clemson Tigers +5000 N/A    
D’Eriq King QB Miami Hurricanes +6500 +2500    
Kellen Mond QB Texas A&M Aggies +7000 +10000    
Chuba Hubbard RB Oklahoma State Cowboys +8000 N/A    
Sam Ehlinger QB Texas Longhorns +10000 +10000    
Spencer Rattler QB Oklahoma Sooners +15000 +10000    
Ian Book QB Notre Dame Irish +20000 +8000    
Zamir White RB Georgia Bulldogs +20000 +10000    
Master Teague III RB Ohio State Buckeyes N/A +10000    
Tanner Morgan QB Minnesota Gophers N/A +15000    
JD Spielman WR TCU Horned Frogs N/A +15000    
Sam Howell QB North Carolina Tarheels N/A +20000    
JT Daniels QB Georgia Bulldogs N/A +20000    
Tylan Wallace WR Oklahoma State Cowboys N/A +20000    
Kadarius Toney OW Florida Gators N/A +20000    
Myles Brennan QB LSU Tigers N/A +20000    
JT Daniels QB Georgia Bulldogs N/A +20000    

 

  • Trevor Lawrence’s positive COVID-19 diagnosis -- and the minimum two games it’s going to cost him -- may well end up killing his odds to win the Heisman. The past three weeks, Lawrence’s odds have gone from -160 to -110 all the way to +250 this week. Lawrence missed Clemson’s 34-28 win over Boston College on Saturday. Clemson has already announced he’ll be out for this Saturday’s marquee showdown against Notre Dame.

 

  • Two weeks ago, when Justin Fields was +700 for the Heisman, we told you in this space that he was by far the biggest bargain on the board. In the weeks since, Fields has dropped from +700 to +200 to +150. After throwing for 318 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-25 win over Penn State, Fields is now a co-favorite for the award.

 

  • Despite the precipitous drop of his price the past few weeks, Fields is still the best bet on the Heisman board. Through two games, he’s been flawless: 48-for-55 (87.3%) for 594 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s also rushed for 50 yards and a seventh score. 

 

  • As an aside, Fields probably isn’t being appreciated enough for the supernova career he’s having. As a passer, he’s compiled a 51/3 TD/INT on 69.9% completions and 9.4 YPA. He’s also rushed for 800 yards and 15 TD.

 

  • BYU’s Zach Wilson has at long last made his debut on the PointsBet Heisman board! Wilson checks in at +3000, No. 4 on the board. As much as I like him as a player, I’m not sure there’s much value to be had at 30-to-1. Wilson would probably need a Fields injury to have any shot to win.

 

  • In Alabama’s first full game without Jaylen Waddle, Mac Jones relentlessly targeted DeVonta Smith. Smith posted a 11-203-4 receiving line in last Saturday’s 41-0 beatdown of Mississippi State. In six games, Smith has already ran up a 56-759-8 line. 

 

  • Despite that ludicrous game, Smith’s odds dropped from +2500 to +4000. Smith faces long odds to win the award. Only two receivers have ever taken home college football’s most illustrious award. But with Waddle out for the year, Smith is clearly the best bet among non-QBs to crash the Heisman ceremony this winter. The Crimson Tide are going to keep force-feeding him targets.

 

  • Mac Jones, at +150, is co-favorite for the Heisman with Fields. I don’t like Jones at that price (I wouldn’t even bet Jones at +500, if I’m being honest). The issue for Jones, even if Bama finishes undefeated and he puts up video game numbers, is that Smith will syphon votes from him. Jones isn't talented enough to differentiate himself from the playmakers he's facilitating.

 


Championship odds

Team This week Last week    
Clemson Tigers +200 +140    
Ohio State Buckeyes +200 +200    
Alabama Crimson Tide +250 +350    
Texas A&M Aggies +900 +5000    
Georgia Bulldogs +1600 +1300    
Florida Gators +2500 +2300    
Notre Dame Irish +3000 +4000    
Wisconsin Badgers +8000 +5000    
Oregon Ducks +10000 N/A    
USC Trojans +10000 N/A    
Oklahoma Sooners +10000 +10000    
BYU Cougars +10000 +10000    
Texas Longhorns +10000 +15000    
Cincinnati Bearcats +10000 +20000    
Washington Huskies +15000 N/A    
Penn State Nittany Lions +15000 +8000    
Auburn Tigers +15000 +20000    
Miami Hurricanes +15000 +10000    
Iowa State Cyclones +15000 +15000    
Oklahoma State Cowboys +20000 +8000    
Kansas State Wildcats +20000 +10000    
Indiana Hoosiers +20000 +10000    
Michigan Wolverines +20000 +3500    
SMU Mustangs +20000 +20000    
Virginia Tech Hokies +20000 +20000    
Purdue Boilermakers +20000 +20000    
Utah Utes +20000 N/A    
Arizona Wildcats +20000 N/A    
Stanford Cardinal +20000 N/A    
UCLA Bruins +20000 N/A    
UCF Knights +20000 25000    
Arizona State Sun Devils +25000 N/A    
Nebraska Cornhuskers +25000 +25000    
South Carolina Gamecocks +25000 +25000    
Tennessee Volunteers +25000 +50000    
North Carolina Tarheels +25000 +15000    
Minnesota Golden Gophers +30000 +15000    
Iowa Hawkeyes +30000 +15000    
Northwestern Wildcats +30000 N/A    
Washington State Cougars +30000 N/A    
Pittsburgh Panthers +30000 +25000    
Virginia Cavaliers +30000 +25000    
NC State Wolfpack +40000 +15000    
Memphis Tigers +50000 +15000    
Arkansas Razorbacks +50000 +100000    
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +50000 +100000    
LSU Tigers +50000 +25000    
West Virginia Mountaineers +50000 +25000    
Kentucky Wildcats +50000 +50000    
TCU Horned Frogs +75000 +50000    
Marshall Thundering Herd +75000 +35000    
Maryland Terrapins +75000 +50000    
Florida Atlantic Owls +75000 +100000    
Colorado Buffaloes +100000 N/A    
Oregon State Beavers +100000 N/A    
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns +100000 +50000    
Missouri Tigers +100000 +25000    
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +100000 +50000    
Appalachian State Mountaineers +100000 +100000    
Army Knights +100000 +100000    
Charlotte 49ers +100000 +100000    
Georgia State Panthers +100000 +100000    
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +100000 +100000    
Syracuse Orange +100000 +100000    

 

  • Clemson’s odds jumped from +140 to +200. The Tigers beat Boston College 34-28 but needed to go on a 21-0 rally after halftime -- benefitting from a fumble, interception and a late safety -- to stay undefeated. Clemson finished the game with a 29% win expectancy.

 

  • After that game, HC Dabo Swinney announced that Trevor Lawrence will miss this weekend’s game against Notre Dame due to the ACC's COVID-19 protocols. That means freshman QB D.J. Uiagalelei will make his second career start in a pivotal game. 

 

  • Clemson-Notre Dame isn't the only matchup between top-eight teams with enormous national implications this weekend. No. 8 Florida travels to No. 5 Georgia in a natty-eliminator match. The winner of Georgia (+1600) and Florida (+2500) figures to be priced in the +800 or +900 neighborhood next week. The loser will be eliminated from playoff consideration.

 

  • Ohio State remained at +200 following its 13-point win over Penn State. But due to Clemson’s fall, the Buckeyes are officially co-favorites for the title.

 

  • The Texas A&M Aggies fell all the way from +5000 to +900 after beating Arkansas. After the Aggies upset Florida, we mentioned that A&M was being slept on in the futures market due to their upcoming schedule. Still sporting only one loss, the remainder of A&M’s schedule remains quite forgiving: South Carolina, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU and Auburn. 

 

  • I was surprised that the Notre Dame’s odds didn’t fall further. The Irish went from +4000 last week to +3000 last week after beating Georgia Tech. More importantly, they get Clemson this week without Trevor Lawrence. If the Irish win that game, their odds will get cut by more than two-thirds next week (I'd estimate the +600 neighborhood). If you think the Irish can beat Clemson, getting ND at 30-to-1 right now to win the title is good business.

 

  • The Cincinnati Bearcats saw their odds slashed in half, from +20000 to +10000, after last Saturday’s route of Memphis. At +10000, Cincy now has the same odds as fellow undefeated longshot BYU. Each will need abject chaos around them to have any shot at being picked into the four-team playoff.

  • Here are my estimated current spreads for potential playoff matchups on neutral sites, listed in order of spread discrepancy:

 

Dog Fav ATL
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Florida Gators Pk
Florida Gators Georgia Bulldogs -2.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Georgia Bulldogs -2.5
Alabama Crimson Tide Ohio State Buckeyes -3
Georgia Bulldogs Clemson Tigers -3
Clemson Tigers Alabama Crimson Tide -4
Florida Gators Clemson Tigers -5.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Clemson Tigers -5.5
Clemson Tigers Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5
Georgia Bulldogs Alabama Crimson Tide -7
Texas A&M Aggies Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7.5
Texas A&M Aggies Florida Gators -7.5
Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide -9
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Alabama Crimson Tide -9
Georgia Bulldogs Ohio State Buckeyes -9.5
Texas A&M Aggies Georgia Bulldogs -10
Florida Gators Ohio State Buckeyes -12
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Ohio State Buckeyes -12
Texas A&M Aggies Clemson Tigers -13
Texas A&M Aggies Alabama Crimson Tide -16.5
Texas A&M Aggies Ohio State Buckeyes -19.5

Week 10 games of note:

No. 9 BYU at No. 21 Boise State (Friday)

No. 23 Michigan at No. 13 Indiana

No. 8 Florida at No. 5 Georgia

No. 1 Clemson at No. 4 Notre Dame

Stanford at No. 12 Oregon

Houston at No. 6 Cincinnati


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Thor Nystrom

Thor Nystrom is NBC Sports Edge’s lead CFB writer. The 2018 FSWA College Sports Writer of the Year, Nystrom’s writing has also been honored by Rolling Stone magazine and The Best American Essays series. Say hi to him on Twitter @thorku!