Every Monday, I’ll provide updated Heisman and national title odds from PointsBet along with thoughts on potential angles.
|Player||Position||Team||This week||Last week|
|Justin Fields||QB||Ohio State Buckeyes||+150||+200|
|Mac Jones||QB||Alabama Crimson Tide||+150||+600|
|Trevor Lawrence||QB||Clemson Tigers||+250||-110|
|Zach Wilson||QB||BYU Cougars||+3000||N/A|
|Kyle Trask||QB||Florida Gators||+4000||+2000|
|DeVonta Smith||WR||Alabama Crimson Tide||+4000||+2500|
|Sean Clifford||QB||Penn State Nittany Lions||+5000||+5000|
|Najee Harris||RB||Alabama Crimson Tide||+5000||+2500|
|Travis Etienne||RB||Clemson Tigers||+5000||N/A|
|D’Eriq King||QB||Miami Hurricanes||+6500||+2500|
|Kellen Mond||QB||Texas A&M Aggies||+7000||+10000|
|Chuba Hubbard||RB||Oklahoma State Cowboys||+8000||N/A|
|Sam Ehlinger||QB||Texas Longhorns||+10000||+10000|
|Spencer Rattler||QB||Oklahoma Sooners||+15000||+10000|
|Ian Book||QB||Notre Dame Irish||+20000||+8000|
|Zamir White||RB||Georgia Bulldogs||+20000||+10000|
|Master Teague III||RB||Ohio State Buckeyes||N/A||+10000|
|Tanner Morgan||QB||Minnesota Gophers||N/A||+15000|
|JD Spielman||WR||TCU Horned Frogs||N/A||+15000|
|Sam Howell||QB||North Carolina Tarheels||N/A||+20000|
|JT Daniels||QB||Georgia Bulldogs||N/A||+20000|
|Tylan Wallace||WR||Oklahoma State Cowboys||N/A||+20000|
|Kadarius Toney||OW||Florida Gators||N/A||+20000|
|Myles Brennan||QB||LSU Tigers||N/A||+20000|
|JT Daniels||QB||Georgia Bulldogs||N/A||+20000|
- Trevor Lawrence’s positive COVID-19 diagnosis -- and the minimum two games it’s going to cost him -- may well end up killing his odds to win the Heisman. The past three weeks, Lawrence’s odds have gone from -160 to -110 all the way to +250 this week. Lawrence missed Clemson’s 34-28 win over Boston College on Saturday. Clemson has already announced he’ll be out for this Saturday’s marquee showdown against Notre Dame.
- Two weeks ago, when Justin Fields was +700 for the Heisman, we told you in this space that he was by far the biggest bargain on the board. In the weeks since, Fields has dropped from +700 to +200 to +150. After throwing for 318 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-25 win over Penn State, Fields is now a co-favorite for the award.
- Despite the precipitous drop of his price the past few weeks, Fields is still the best bet on the Heisman board. Through two games, he’s been flawless: 48-for-55 (87.3%) for 594 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s also rushed for 50 yards and a seventh score.
- As an aside, Fields probably isn’t being appreciated enough for the supernova career he’s having. As a passer, he’s compiled a 51/3 TD/INT on 69.9% completions and 9.4 YPA. He’s also rushed for 800 yards and 15 TD.
- BYU’s Zach Wilson has at long last made his debut on the PointsBet Heisman board! Wilson checks in at +3000, No. 4 on the board. As much as I like him as a player, I’m not sure there’s much value to be had at 30-to-1. Wilson would probably need a Fields injury to have any shot to win.
- In Alabama’s first full game without Jaylen Waddle, Mac Jones relentlessly targeted DeVonta Smith. Smith posted a 11-203-4 receiving line in last Saturday’s 41-0 beatdown of Mississippi State. In six games, Smith has already ran up a 56-759-8 line.
- Despite that ludicrous game, Smith’s odds dropped from +2500 to +4000. Smith faces long odds to win the award. Only two receivers have ever taken home college football’s most illustrious award. But with Waddle out for the year, Smith is clearly the best bet among non-QBs to crash the Heisman ceremony this winter. The Crimson Tide are going to keep force-feeding him targets.
- Mac Jones, at +150, is co-favorite for the Heisman with Fields. I don’t like Jones at that price (I wouldn’t even bet Jones at +500, if I’m being honest). The issue for Jones, even if Bama finishes undefeated and he puts up video game numbers, is that Smith will syphon votes from him. Jones isn't talented enough to differentiate himself from the playmakers he's facilitating.
|Team||This week||Last week|
|Ohio State Buckeyes||+200||+200|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||+250||+350|
|Texas A&M Aggies||+900||+5000|
|Notre Dame Irish||+3000||+4000|
|Penn State Nittany Lions||+15000||+8000|
|Iowa State Cyclones||+15000||+15000|
|Oklahoma State Cowboys||+20000||+8000|
|Kansas State Wildcats||+20000||+10000|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||+20000||+20000|
|Arizona State Sun Devils||+25000||N/A|
|South Carolina Gamecocks||+25000||+25000|
|North Carolina Tarheels||+25000||+15000|
|Minnesota Golden Gophers||+30000||+15000|
|Washington State Cougars||+30000||N/A|
|NC State Wolfpack||+40000||+15000|
|Coastal Carolina Chanticleers||+50000||+100000|
|West Virginia Mountaineers||+50000||+25000|
|TCU Horned Frogs||+75000||+50000|
|Marshall Thundering Herd||+75000||+35000|
|Florida Atlantic Owls||+75000||+100000|
|Oregon State Beavers||+100000||N/A|
|Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns||+100000||+50000|
|Wake Forest Demon Deacons||+100000||+50000|
|Appalachian State Mountaineers||+100000||+100000|
|Georgia State Panthers||+100000||+100000|
|Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||+100000||+100000|
- Clemson’s odds jumped from +140 to +200. The Tigers beat Boston College 34-28 but needed to go on a 21-0 rally after halftime -- benefitting from a fumble, interception and a late safety -- to stay undefeated. Clemson finished the game with a 29% win expectancy.
- After that game, HC Dabo Swinney announced that Trevor Lawrence will miss this weekend’s game against Notre Dame due to the ACC's COVID-19 protocols. That means freshman QB D.J. Uiagalelei will make his second career start in a pivotal game.
- Clemson-Notre Dame isn't the only matchup between top-eight teams with enormous national implications this weekend. No. 8 Florida travels to No. 5 Georgia in a natty-eliminator match. The winner of Georgia (+1600) and Florida (+2500) figures to be priced in the +800 or +900 neighborhood next week. The loser will be eliminated from playoff consideration.
- Ohio State remained at +200 following its 13-point win over Penn State. But due to Clemson’s fall, the Buckeyes are officially co-favorites for the title.
- The Texas A&M Aggies fell all the way from +5000 to +900 after beating Arkansas. After the Aggies upset Florida, we mentioned that A&M was being slept on in the futures market due to their upcoming schedule. Still sporting only one loss, the remainder of A&M’s schedule remains quite forgiving: South Carolina, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU and Auburn.
- I was surprised that the Notre Dame’s odds didn’t fall further. The Irish went from +4000 last week to +3000 last week after beating Georgia Tech. More importantly, they get Clemson this week without Trevor Lawrence. If the Irish win that game, their odds will get cut by more than two-thirds next week (I'd estimate the +600 neighborhood). If you think the Irish can beat Clemson, getting ND at 30-to-1 right now to win the title is good business.
- The Cincinnati Bearcats saw their odds slashed in half, from +20000 to +10000, after last Saturday’s route of Memphis. At +10000, Cincy now has the same odds as fellow undefeated longshot BYU. Each will need abject chaos around them to have any shot at being picked into the four-team playoff.
- Here are my estimated current spreads for potential playoff matchups on neutral sites, listed in order of spread discrepancy:
|Notre Dame Fighting Irish||Florida Gators||Pk|
|Florida Gators||Georgia Bulldogs||-2.5|
|Notre Dame Fighting Irish||Georgia Bulldogs||-2.5|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||Ohio State Buckeyes||-3|
|Georgia Bulldogs||Clemson Tigers||-3|
|Clemson Tigers||Alabama Crimson Tide||-4|
|Florida Gators||Clemson Tigers||-5.5|
|Notre Dame Fighting Irish||Clemson Tigers||-5.5|
|Clemson Tigers||Ohio State Buckeyes||-6.5|
|Georgia Bulldogs||Alabama Crimson Tide||-7|
|Texas A&M Aggies||Notre Dame Fighting Irish||-7.5|
|Texas A&M Aggies||Florida Gators||-7.5|
|Florida Gators||Alabama Crimson Tide||-9|
|Notre Dame Fighting Irish||Alabama Crimson Tide||-9|
|Georgia Bulldogs||Ohio State Buckeyes||-9.5|
|Texas A&M Aggies||Georgia Bulldogs||-10|
|Florida Gators||Ohio State Buckeyes||-12|
|Notre Dame Fighting Irish||Ohio State Buckeyes||-12|
|Texas A&M Aggies||Clemson Tigers||-13|
|Texas A&M Aggies||Alabama Crimson Tide||-16.5|
|Texas A&M Aggies||Ohio State Buckeyes||-19.5|
Week 10 games of note:
No. 9 BYU at No. 21 Boise State (Friday)
No. 23 Michigan at No. 13 Indiana
No. 8 Florida at No. 5 Georgia
No. 1 Clemson at No. 4 Notre Dame
Stanford at No. 12 Oregon
Houston at No. 6 Cincinnati
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