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Malik Willis
Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports
NFL Draft Betting

Early Bowl Season CFB Player Props Primer

by Eric Froton
Updated On: December 26, 2020, 2:04 pm ET

FanDuel is putting up significantly more player props for the Bowl games than Draft Kings is. Apparently their getting a little gun-shy from the beating we've been laying on them all season. Well, if FanDuel is willing to pay for the market share, we'll give it to them...good and hard.

 

Joshua Cephus vs. Louisiana - 35.5

Cephus is the most consistent target in UTSA’s aerial attack, as he has posted at least five receptions per game in eight-of-eleven contests. Even in the three games where he didn’t rack up five grabs, he was productive. Here is the reception/yardage totals from each of those three sub-five catch contests:

@UAB - 3 Receptions for 42 yards

@BYU - 4 Receptions for 58 yards

La Tech - 4 Receptions for 14 yards

As far as their yardage totals, Cephus crossed the 35.5 mark in eight-of-eleven contests as well. In UTSA’s four losses, Cephus surpassed the 35.5 threshold in each of them, as QB Frank Harris was forced to throw the ball more. I think it’s safe to assume UTSA will be down against Louisiana today, so all signs are pointing to a strong OVER play on Cephus.

 

 

Cornelius McCoy vs. WKU - 65.5

Western Kentucky suppresses passing numbers incredibly well, allowing only 170 Passing YPG which ranks eighth in the nation. In the Georgia State offense, McCoy has played second fiddle to Sam Pinckney for most of the season. In the six games McCoy has appeared, he crossed the 65.5 yard mark only twice - a 111 yard showing against Georgia Southern, and a seven catch, 118 yard, 2 touchdown eruption against arguably the worst team in FBS, ULM. The only other game where he was even in the ballpark of 65.5 was a seven catch, 59 yard performance against ECU, which is another pathetic defensive team. 

Georgia State is averaging a pedestrian 227 passing YPG against far inferior pass defenses than WKU. With McCoy serving as the chain moving second-banana, i’m all about the UNDER 65.5 mark.

 

Mitchell Tinsley vs. Georgia State - 52.5

WKU has had issues all season long moving the ball through the air, as the Hilltoppers have yet to find a consistent replacement for former star WR Lucky Jackson. Point being, they are averaging a mere 153 passing YPG, which ranks as the 17th worst passing yardage mark in the nation.

Mitchell Tinsley has been an extremely inconsistent option, passing the 52.5 number only ONE time all season, and that was all the way back on September 19 when he posted 6 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown against Liberty. In his last five games, the possession wideout only posted a long reception of 18 yards. HC Tyson Helton’s offense relies on short, precision passes and a grind-it-out run game that leans on a stout defense that allows under 20 PPG. 

Tinsley is an auto-play on a puzzling UNDER 52.5 line that is so nonsensical someone should be reprimanded for it.

 

Grayson McCall vs. Liberty - 249.5

FanDuel is really juicing these lines, as Draft Kings set this mark at 227.5 passing yards. Clearly there is a battle between the two DFS heavyweights for their Sportsbook business, as FD is putting out a ton more lines than Draft Kings is in order to carve out a bigger slice of the sportsbook pie.

CCU is not a high-volume passing offense. Besides the 42-38 shootout against Troy on December 12 where McCall threw for 338 yards, the redshirt freshman signal caller had failed to cross the 249 mark in five of his previous six contests. The only other times he crossed it were in blowouts of Georgia State, Arkansas State and Campbell.

I simply cannot envision a blowout in CCU’s favor considering they are facing a tough Liberty secondary that is allowing only 170 passing yards per game on the year. For perspective, McCall only completed 10-of-15 passes for 85 yards in their 22-17 victory over BYU. 

Take the FanDuel option if it’s available to you and play the UNDER 249.5 passing yards.

 

Malik Willis vs. Coastal Carolina - 69.5

The Flames’ signal caller has a tendency to play up to the level of competition when it comes to his rushing performances. In nine games, he crossed the 70-yard threshold six times. In the three occasions where he went under, one game was against UMass in a 45-0 boat race in which Willis left the game late in the third quarter. The others were in a 15-14 loss against NC State where he rushed for a season-low 44 yards, and a 38-21 comfortable win over Syracuse where he rushed 12 times for 58 yards. 

If Liberty intends to compete with CCU, Willis will have to be the catalyst for their offense. He is always a threat to run, and with this matchup against the Chanticleers being their biggest game of the season, I expect their franchise QB to be unleashed. I’m backing the OVER 69.5 yards mark on FanDuel.