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NFL Draft Betting

Week 10 CFB/DFS Bargains

by Eric Froton
Updated On: December 12, 2020, 3:17 pm ET

Quarterbacks

 

Max Duggan - TCU - $6,400

Last week Duggan only uncorked 23 passes for 138 yards and one TD in a 33-23 slog against Baylor where TCU bludgeoned the Bears on the ground with 247 rushing yards. Baylor was barely able to mount a consistent offensive attack, as they were down 30-7 at halftime and only posted 278 total yards on the day. 

Duggan’s pass attempts should be in the 30-35 range this week against a Texas Tech defense that is allowing the fifth most total yards in the country along with a deplorable 41.2 PPG. Most importantly for the TCU signal caller, the Red Raiders are being gashed for 339 passing yards per game which is the third worst mark in the country. 

Duggan hasn’t put it all together for a big 30-point showing since coming back from his pre-season viral ailment. All signs point to a 25+ point performance at a bargain price.

 

 

Jarret Doege - West Virginia - $6,100

The former Bowling Green transfer who made-good at a prominent power five program has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 26 straight games. He’s passing at  293 YPG clip for a flourishing WVU offense that is averaging 33 points per game. Bryce Ford-Wheaton broke out with a 100-yard game last week and Doege is playing a Texas defense allowing 32.5 PPG and 278 passing YPG. 

HC Neal Brown cut his teeth in the Sun Belt, leading Troy to multiple potent offensive seasons before replacing Dana Holgerson at West Virginia. Last year the Mountaineers took their lumps as Brown changed over the ream's roster to fit his scheme, but Doege has really taken hold of the offense and thrived in it. The veteran signal caller has thrown for at least 285 yards in four of his last five games, while accounting for at least two touchdowns in three of his last four. 

Doege is a credible low-price, high-floor option at the Super Flex position this week.

 

Henry Colombi - Texas Tech - $6,000

In College DFS, the most prolific point explosions usually come in games where both offenses are scoring enough to keep the pressure on one another. Since being inserted into the starting quarterback role, Colombi has improved upon Bowman’s statue-esque approach by showing the ability to move out of the pocket and extend plays by throwing on the run.

The Utah State transfer has rushed for at least 40 yards in two of his four appearances, while recording at least two touchdowns in three of his last four games. He isn’t going to throw for 300+ yards with the regularity of previous Red Raider air-raid quarterbacks. However Colombi is still leading a 31.5 PPG offensive attack and should be able to produce a 20-25 point game for relatively short money.

 

Running Backs 

 

Devyn Ford - Penn State - $5,900 

Ford handled almost every single snap last week against Ohio State. Even so, he was unable to find much room to run with a game script forcing the Nittany Lions to focus almost exclusively on the pass due to their second half deficit. Despite his steady presence in the backfield, Ford only received eight carries for 36 yards as he played a reduced role in the loss. 

However in Penn State’s opening week loss to Indiana, Ford received 20 carries for 69 yards to go with three receptions in the wake of Noah Cain’s season-ending injury. Last week, Mo Ibrahim ripped Maryland for 207 yards and four touchdowns. Devyn Ford might not be Ibrahim, but he’s certainly going to have a shot at 100+ yards and a touchdown against the Terrapins’ soft front-seven.

 

Gary Brightwell - Arizona - $4,900

Serving as the primary backup to diminutive starter J.J. Taylor, Brightwell excelled on a per-carry basis last season, averaging 5.9 YPC on 66 carries in which he gained 390 yards. His advanced stats back up the stellar averages, as Brightwell posted a 27% broken tackle percentage with an elite 4.35 yards after contact for the Wildcats in 2019. 

He has now been named the starter on Arizona’s initial depth chart and is in line for a full compliment of snaps. I realize that he’s taking on Utah’s defense that allowed only 82 YPG on the ground last year. However the Utes only return two starters on the defensive side of the ball and might not have the requisite continuity needed to shut down a potentially respectable Arizona offense. 

The price is right on Arizona's opening day starting RB.

Devon Brumfield - $5,200

On the other side of the Utah vs. Arizona ledger, The Utes released their initial depth chart with Brumfield listed first, but sharing co-starter status with Jordan Wilmore ($4,900). I was hoping to see a bigger price break for Wilmore considering he’s technically the RB2, but Draft Kings had other ideas.

At their current prices, you’re better off rolling the dice with Brumfield. It's a great situational spot against a bad defense to grab a few discounted shares of Utah’s starting RB. Keep in mind that Brumfield is running behind an offensive line that returns 4 starters, 74 career line starts and averaged 4,8 YPC/201 rushing YPG in 2019.

 

Rachaad White - Arizona State - $3,000

Heading out of spring practice, highly touted true freshman DeaMontre Trayanum was the consensus favorite to replace All Pac-12 RB Eno Benjamin according to the preseason magazines. However when HC Herm Edwards released the team’s first depth chart, it was JUCO transfer Rachaad White who was named first on the RB depth chart, sharing co-starter duties with Trayanum. 

White spent his first two years out of high school at Mt. San Antonio Junior College in Sacramento, CA. His road to ASU was not filled with the glamour and glitz that a blue chip prospect like Trayanum received. His two years of collegiate experience clearly helped the JUCO transfer get acclimated to the speed of play at the next level and prepared him to compete for playing time right out of the gate this year. 

With a nice matchup on tap against USC, White is a dirt cheap $3,000 and should receive at least double-digit carries in his first FBS appearance.
 

Wide Receivers

 

Erik Ezukanma - $5,300

Texas Tech has had their share of injuries within their wide receiver ranks this year, as KeSean Carter and T.J. Vasher are both banged up at the moment. The Quarterback room wasn’t spared either, as Alan Bowman missed time due to injury for the third straight year. With Bowman struggling, HC Matt Wells opted to use his former Utah State recruit, Henry Colombi, as his starting signal caller. 

Colombi doesn’t possess Bowman’s arm talent, but he is certainly better at making progressions and stretching plays out with his superior mobility. With the insertion of a more dual-threat oriented QB, the receiving numbers have predictably suffered as Colombi has only thrown for over 200 yards in two of his four starts. However Ezukanma has maintained a consistent level of production no matter who is under center, as he has hauled in at least five passes for 60+ yards in five of his six games this year along with three touchdowns. He isn’t stretching the field much, as his longest reception of his past five games is 28 yards. Where he has been excelling is in the mid-range game, breaking tackles on 34 percent of his passes this year. His10 broken tackles is an elite mark that ranks in the top-10 for receivers nationwide. 

While the other Red Raider pass catchers' numbers have fluctuated, Ezukanma has been the most dependable receiver on the roster and is poised for another solid showing against TCU this week for a very reasonable $5,300.

 

Drake London - USC - $5,000

USC averaged 336 passing yards per game in 2019, a tally that produced three wide receivers who recorded at least 100 targets and 900+ receiving yards. Micheael Pittman and his 101 receptions, 1,275 yards and 11 touchdowns are gone. Tyler Vaughns and Amon-Ra St. Brown return as does this year’s WR3 Drake London. It’s easy to forget that London posted 39 catches for 567 yards and five touchdowns in a reserve role last year. 

It’s important to remember that London will be on the field for almost every snap this season. As we have seen with Devonta Smith of Alabama last year, just because a receiver enters the season as third-man on the receiving depth chart doesn’t mean he is destined to stay there. London made several highlight reel worthy plays last season and is a smoking deal at $5,000 considering his potential upside in USC’s high profile opening week matchup against Arizona State.

 

Theo Wease - $4,900

With former superstar WR CeeDee Lamb leaving for the draft and five-star wide receiver Jadon Haselwood tearing his ACL, the door was open for 2019 four-star recruit Wease to carve out a sizeable role for himself as a top pass-catcher for budding star Spencer Rattler. Though his potential was obvious, Wease started slow as freshman Marvin Mims and junior Charleston Rambo outshined the talented redshirt freshman in the early going. 

For his part Wease only caught seven passes for 89 yards in the first three games of the year and was considered waiver fodder by many CFF owners desperate for some productivity out of his roster spot. Things started to change against Texas though, as Wease caught eight-of-ten targets for 52 yards in the dramatic overtime victory. He then continued to build on that strong showing by catching all three of his targets for 87 yards against TCU and five-of-his-six targets for 105 yards versus Texas Tech last week.

Somehow Wease hasn’t reached the end zone yet this year. With his game log trending in the right directory, and a cream-puff matchup against the power-five’s worst team, I see Wease dropping an affordably priced $4,900 bomb this week. 

 

Brennan Eagles - $4,100

Eagles entered 2020 as a reserve receiver who battled problems with drops, but he had a penchant for making big plays. Michigan transfer Tarik Black had a lot of buzz in fall camp and won the starting job for the Longhorns’ first game against UTEP. Despite his strong practice play, Black couldn’t produce with the same consistency during games. His inconsistency opened the door for Eagles to garner more playing time, and the 6’4/230 matchup nightmare filled the void nicely. 

Thus far, he has reeled in 15 passes for 243 yards and four touchdowns through six games. Last week against Oklahoma State, he caught three-of-three passes for a season high 55 yards and a touchdown against a solid OSU secondary. Eagle has yet to drop a pass this season and his continued improvement has warranted an increase in playing time. I think you could see Eagles post a tidy 5-65-1 line in what should be a competitive game against West Virginia.