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NFL Draft Betting

Week 13 CFB/DFS Optimizer Bargains

by Eric Froton
Updated On: November 27, 2020, 7:05 pm ET

Last week, the Rotoworld DFS optimizer's projected top scorers lined up extremely well with the eventual top scorers for the week. This week we have two, huge slates to consider, as Friday's main slate gets the Thanksgiving bump with nine games to parse through on Black Friday.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Ian Book @ UNC - Salary $7,300 = 8th - Proj. Points = 25.8 - PPT = 3.53 (Friday)

This game has shootout written all over it, as both teams sport top-25 scoring offenses with each of them dominating their competition over the past month. For his part, Book has been ruthlessly efficient, committing just one interception and one fumble all season. The senior has thrown for over 280 yards in three of his last four games while averaging two passing touchdowns per game over that span. 

On the ground he has averaged 10 carries per game while posting at least 40 rushing yards in each of his last six contests. Throw in his six rushing touchdowns on the year and you’ve got a recipe for a huge game against a passive UNC defense that allowed 53 points to Wake Forest last week and 41 points to Virginia three weeks ago. As if that weren’t enough, the Tarheels have smashed the Over on their Vegas O/U lines in five of the last six weeks. 

Ian Book is only the eighth most expensive quarterback in a nine game Friday Main slate. He represents a significant value at his current $7,300 price tag and 3.53 PPT estimate.

 

 

Brock Purdy @ Texas - Salary $6,700 = 10th - Proj. Points = 22.8 - PPT = 3.40 (Friday)

Iowa State began this tumultuous, quagmire of a season ignominiously by dropping their 31-14 season opener to Louisiana in embarrassing fashion. However since an October 24, 24-21 loss to Oklahoma State, ISU has rattled off a three game run of pure dominance. The Cyclones eviscerated Kansas 52-22, then scored 38 points against Baylor before culminating their impressive run with a 45-0 shutout of Kansas State last week. 

Now sitting atop the Big 12 and in control of their own destiny, Iowa State gets a plum matchup this week against a Texas defense that allowed 34 points to Oklahoma State, 53 to Oklahoma and 56 to Texas Tech. For his part, Purdy has regained the form that had NFL Draft prognosticators viewing him as one of the top-five quarterback prospects entering the 2020 season. The Cyclone signal caller has accounted for at least two touchdowns in each of his last six games while rushing for at least 38 yards in four of his last five, with the lone sub-38 yard game coming in a blowout against P5 doormat Kansas where there was no need to risk his health. 

Purdy has posted PPT showings of 4.02, 2.93 and 3.41 over his last three games, with the Optimizer projecting a 3.40 PPT this week against the defensively challenged Longhorns. He’s an excellent Super Flex option at $6,700 that you can build an elite set of skill position options around. 

 

Friday's Top Projected Scorers

Malik Willis - 28.2 points - $10,300

Sam Howell - 27.7 points - $8,700

Ian Book - 25.5 points - $7,300

Dillon Gabriel - 23.9 points - $9,200

 

Saturday's Top Projected Scorers

Mat Corral - 30.8 points - $10,100

Kyle Trask - 26.4 points - $9,900

Micale Cunningham - 26.1 points - $8,500 

Michael Penix Jr. - 24.3 points - $8,800

 

 

Running Backs

 

Joshua Mack vs. UMASS - Salary = 10th - Proj. Points = 11.6 - PPT = 1.87 (Friday)

I’m going off the board from the Optimizer here as the Minutemen have scored a mere twelve points in three games this season, putting immense pressure on a defense that is reminiscent of the infamous 2018 UCONN squad that performed at a high school JV level. HC Hugh Freeze will be granting no quarter after Liberty lost their first game all year in a low-scoring, 15-14 nail biter against NC State last week. 

With superstar QB Malik Willis having nothing to prove in this last minute, hastily thrown together game against arguably the worst FBS team in the country, my gut is telling me Liberty will be running over the beleaguered Minuteman front-seven. A recent comparable is when Liberty crushed Western Carolina 58-14 two weeks ago, registering 633 yards of total offense while rushing the ball 41 times for 254 yards and a 6.2 YPC. I expect Joshua Mack to have the opportunity to run for 100+ yards while cashing in two touchdowns in the lopsided affair. Not a bad deal for a RB ranked 10th in salary in a nine-game slate.  

 

Kelley Joiner Jr. vs. UCF - Salary $3,500 = 31st - Proj. Points = 9.6 - PPT - 2.63 (Friday)

Given the Bulls’ pitiful 1-7 record, it’s easy to forget that they scored 33 points or more in two of their last four games. USF still won’t challenge for a victory, but the team is improving on a weekly basis and should at least be competitive. By the same token, UCF has allowed 34 points or more in three of their last five contests to go with 184 YPG rushing on the year. Joiner Jr. has been a steady presence in the South Florida backfield even before dynamic playmaker Johnny Ford’s departure, averaging just over eight carries per game. 

His cheap price tag in a shortened slate is certainly enticing, as the Friday Night Optimizer is spitting out a chalk heavy lineup with one slot reserved for a sub $4K dart throw. The biggest impediment to a big game for Joiner Jr. is fellow USF RB Brian Battie, who is an excellent option should you be able to afford his $4,600 price tag. Battie has really emerged the past two games, rushing 10 times for 76 yards against Memphis and 13 times for 86 yards, along with two receptions for 27 yards in their last contest against Houston. I expect Charlie Weiss Jr. to ride the hot hand with both backs seeing around double-digit carries. 

Joiner Jr. and Bentavious Thompson ($3,000) are my favorite super-cheap options for the Friday slate.

 

Kavosiey Smoke @ Florida - Salary $3,100 = 63rd - Proj. Points = 9 - PPT = 2.90 (Saturday)

Smoke burst on the scene in 2019 with 101 carries for 616 yards, a 6.1 YPC and six touchdowns as the third-wheel of a three-man committee backfield behind option-QB Lynn Bowden Jr. He started off on the right foot this year, rushing seven times for 62 yards and a touchdown as UK's most effective rushing option in a 29-13 loss to Auburn in the team’s season opener.

However he sustained an injury in Kentucky's next game against Ole Miss and lost ground to the impressive Christopher Rodriguez Jr. while he was out. Accordingly he only received three carries for 20 yards against Vanderbilt two weeks ago as he got his feet wet upon his return. The compact tailback seemed destined for third-back duty for the remainder of the season, until Rodriguez sustained an injury last week against Alabama. 

With C-ROD out this week, Smoke will share the backfield load with Asim Rose ($3,900, 2.64 PPT) against a Florida team that is allowing 28 PPG and 411 YPG of offense. The Gators aren’t ranked number six in the nation because of their defense, they’re simply out-scoring everyone they play thanks to a lethal offense that averages 44.7 PPG. 

One of the Kentucky backfield duo is going to be a valuable DFS lineup addition at their bargain basement prices. Smoke is $800 less and is the more talented of the two in my opinion, but Rose should also be considered as they represent two excellent values for under $4K. If forced to pick one of the two, Pass The Kavosiey over to me for $3,100. 

 

Friday's Top Projected Scorers

Xazavian Valladay - 22.4 points - $7,900

Breece Hall - 18.7 points - $8,900

Kobe Lewis - 17.4 points - $7,400

Tyler Goodson - 17 points - $6,400

Javonte Williams - 16.2 points - $8,500

 

Saturday's Top Projected Scorers

Travis Etienne - 19.7 points - $8,600

Stevie Scott III - 19 points - $5,100

Najee Harris - 18.8 points - $9,600

Master Teague - 17 points - $7,700

Jerrion Ealy - 15.4 points - $7,100

 

Wide Receivers

 

Connor Wedington @ Cal - Salary $5,100 = 17th - Proj. Points = 12.1 - PPT = 2.37 (Friday)

Stanford took their lumps in Week 1 against Oregon thanks to a pair of false positives keeping QB Davis Mills and WR Connor Wedington from participating. With the medical error behind them and an objectively pathetic running game that ranks 91st in the nation with 133 YPG, Mills completed 31 passes for 327 yards against Colorado. Wedington was on the receiving end of eight of those receptions for 77 yards, which in only one game is still enough to lead the team in each category for the year. 

On the other side, this is not the Cal defense of yesteryear that grinded out games and relied on a stout, bend but don’t break approach employed by HC Justin Wilcox. Instead they got torched for 34 points by UCLA and 31 by a rebuilding Oregon State team that lost NFL caliber talents Jake Luton and Isaiah Hodgins. In fact, through two games Cal has yet to record a single sack.

The Mills/Wedington combo will be in full effect Friday evening in “The Game” against Cal in what should be a rare high scoring affair for this rivalry. Wedington is a stellar value at $5,100 and should be locked into the WR3 spot in your Friday lineups.

 

Quian Williams vs. CMU Salary = $4,900 21st - Proj. Points = 6.3 - PPT = 1.29 (Friday)

I’m going off the board with this recommendation, as I watched a lot of Williams last year since I had his QB Mike Glass III in multiple CFF leagues. His talent jumped off the screen, as he made multiple highlight-reel worthy catches while displaying a talent for high-pointing passes and out-muscling smaller corners. His team has proved to be incapable of mounting a consistent rushing attack, as EMU currently ranks 116th in rushing yards per game. Their defense isn’t doing them any favors either, as they were torched for 45 points by Toledo and 38 points by Ball State the last two weeks. 

In CFB/DFS a passive defense is a feature, not a bug. It has allowed Eastern Michigan to lean on Preston Hutchinson’s arm and rack up passing yardage in an attempt to climb out of the holes their woeful D often places them in. Last week Williams caught eight passes for 86 yards and a touchdown as the big play outside compliment to shifty possession receiver Hassan Beydoun. Their opponent Central Michigan allowed 51 points and five passing touchdowns to Kaleb Eleby and Western Michigan last week. While I don’t expect an explosion to quite that level for the Eagles, they have scored at least 27 points in each of their first three games. 

Every lineup needs a little high-octane MACtion sprinkled in, and i’m taking the plunge with Williams who I predict will pop for a 100-yard/TD showing this week in another high scoring affair against the Chippewas.

 

Josh Imatorbhebhe vs. Ohio State - Salary $4,500 = 42nd - Proj. Points = 15.2 - PPT = 3.38 (Saturday)

At 6-foot-2, 220 Lbs, the USC transfer Imatorbhebhe is a physical specimen that demands extra attention when lined up out wide or he will tear apart whichever unfortunate corner who has to cover him. Nebraska found that out the hard way last week, as he made multiple jaw-dropping catches that helped the Illini pull off the upset. With Brandon Peters back from injury, Illinois has been able to open up the playbook with more deep shots, to Imatorbhebhe’s benefit. 

Defensively, Ohio State’s weakness is clearly their new starting outside corners who were victimized by Ty Fryfogle last week for seven catches, 218 yards and three touchdowns. That explosion came on the heels of Jahan Dotson’s national coming out party where he caught eight passes for 144 yards and three touchdowns, embarrassing their entire secondary in the process. Make no mistake, the Buckeyes offensive juggernaut will be positively ruthless to the Illinois defense and win comfortably. Conversely Illinois will not be able to run the ball, as OSU is allowing only 96 YPG on the ground. However they are getting beat regularly in the passing game, allowing 291 passing yards per game against their fledgling secondary. 

This is a much better matchup for Illinois’ passing attack then it seems at first glance. With a thrifty $4,500 price tag, you can officially “Hit Me Imatorbhebhe One More Time”

 

Friday's Top Projected Scorers

Dyami Brown - 19 points - $7,200

Marlon Williams - 16.4points - $8,100

Hassan Beydoun - 16.3points - $5,400

Kalil Pimpleton - 16.1 points - $7,500

Javon McKinley - 15 points - $4,300

 

Saturday's Top Projected Scorers

Elijah Moore - 25 points - $9,400

Ty Fryfogle - 20.8 points - $7,800

Garrett Wilson - 19.1 points - $8,400

Jahan Dotson - 18.5 points - $6,500

Kadarius Toney - 16.6 points - $7,300