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The Numbers Game

Fantasy Impact by Categories

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

This column attempts to quantify the importance of each statistical category for an individual player's fantasy value. How much of J.J. Redick's value (top-75 last year) comes from 3-point shooting? How much value did Rajon Rondo lose by shooting 58% at the line last season, on 2.1 attempts per game? In short, this analysis lets fantasy owners objectively weigh players’ individual strengths and weaknesses in any format that uses standard categories.


The baseline data is the entirety of the 2015-16 season. I'm only looking at top-200 players who appeared in at least 35 games and averaged at least 15 minutes. Individual 'impact' values (positive or negative) are then determined by dividing each player's category-specific z-scores into their total (absolute) 9-cat value and expressing the result as a percentage. For details on the methodology, click here.


As a random example, Pau Gasol’s fantasy value was very reliant on rebounds (53.8%) and blocks (60.8%) last season. You'll notice that those numbers by themselves add up to more than 100% -- this is because the analysis also accounts for negative impacts. Gasol arrived at a positive 9-cat value (total z-score = 4.28) despite negative contributions in steals (-20.9%), turnovers (-18.7%) and 3-pointers (-18.5%). For those keeping track, the numbers average out to exactly 100% for players with a positive cumulative value, and -100% for players with a negative value.


As with the first 'Impact' analysis I did in 2015, the formatting should be read horizontally for each player, expressing the amount of their total value derived from an individual stat. The colors vary between players, but generally speaking Green indicates strong positive Impact for 9-cat value, Yellow is weak positive, Orange is weak negative, and Red is strong negative. To be crystal clear, these are individual values. Brandon Knight has a higher 'Impact' for points than guys like LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony, not because he scores more, but because he's not as versatile -- his value is largely dependent on that single category.

 

Finally, there is a group without multi-color formatting in the middle...these players had a total 9-cat value so close to zero that dividing into it resulted in ludicrous/unreliable numbers. I may have figured out a way to fix that problem, but it dawned on me too late in this analysis…hopefully I’ll remember the fix next year. For now, just take that unformatted block of players with a grain of salt.


*NOTE* I've had some formatting issues, so if you can't see the whole chart just click here to view it on Google Drive. You can also send me a message on Twitter (or email) and I can email you the Excel file. The two columns on the far right (after Impact TO) are intentionally blank.

 

Name Impact PTS Impact 3PT Impact FG% Impact FT% Impact REB Impact AST Impact STL Impact BLK Impact TO    
Stephen Curry 24.1% 34.3% 9.0% 18.5% 0.3% 14.2% 20.9% -5.8% -15.6%    
Kevin Durant 29.0% 17.8% 11.9% 31.9% 11.5% 11.0% -0.2% 10.1% -23.1%    
Kawhi Leonard 18.2% 10.3% 11.1% 20.8% 7.0% -0.9% 22.9% 7.6% 2.9%    
James Harden 36.4% 25.3% -10.8% 41.3% 3.7% 27.5% 20.7% -0.2% -44.0%    
Chris Paul 16.8% 9.6% -1.8% 27.2% -6.2% 47.3% 34.7% -11.1% -16.4%    
Anthony Davis 30.9% -7.3% 11.0% 0.3% 28.4% -5.9% 11.1% 37.3% -5.6%    
Russell Westbrook 30.7% 4.3% -5.8% 19.6% 15.4% 57.7% 39.6% -10.6% -50.7%    
Kyle Lowry 26.7% 33.6% -17.1% 19.0% -4.1% 30.5% 44.5% -5.9% -27.3%    
Paul Millsap 13.9% -2.1% 0.9% 0.0% 26.3% 4.4% 36.8% 35.6% -15.7%    
Hassan Whiteside 4.3% -21.0% 37.7% -28.6% 47.2% -20.6% -15.1% 101.2% -5.0%    
Paul George 35.7% 33.0% -26.4% 40.5% 11.8% 11.8% 40.5% -9.2% -37.8%    
LeBron James 44.3% 2.7% 30.5% -10.5% 15.9% 36.8% 18.7% 0.5% -38.8%    
Jimmy Butler 29.4% -1.4% -6.2% 33.8% 0.1% 19.5% 32.0% 0.4% -7.8%    
Karl-Anthony Towns 21.0% -15.3% 35.4% 12.2% 41.9% -7.9% -12.1% 39.8% -15.0%    
Kemba Walker 30.9% 28.8% -22.5% 32.9% -7.6% 24.7% 30.2% -5.6% -11.9%    
Damian Lillard 49.7% 50.0% -33.0% 59.3% -11.4% 43.0% -4.4% -10.1% -43.0%    
Draymond Green 4.2% 5.5% 8.2% -18.2% 36.5% 50.1% 26.6% 30.2% -43.1%    
Pau Gasol 15.9% -18.5% 1.1% 11.0% 53.8% 15.5% -20.9% 60.8% -18.7%    
Al Horford 10.3% 1.5% 18.4% 5.1% 18.6% 5.4% -7.8% 37.7% 10.7%    
Klay Thompson 42.3% 67.1% 1.7% 25.5% -14.7% -8.0% -11.7% -0.2% -2.1%    
John Wall 33.4% 13.7% -31.2% 12.5% -4.4% 93.1% 56.2% 6.4% -79.6%    
DeMarcus Cousins 72.3% 1.8% -14.5% -36.0% 66.9% 7.3% 39.0% 38.5% -75.2%    
Khris Middleton 30.1% 27.5% -17.2% 51.7% -18.9% 21.5% 51.1% -21.7% -24.0%    
Brook Lopez 44.1% -34.5% 34.6% 16.3% 30.9% -10.9% -11.5% 59.8% -28.7%    
Isaiah Thomas 55.4% 36.4% -34.0% 78.1% -29.9% 53.1% 11.7% -29.9% -40.9%    
Dirk Nowitzki 32.3% 24.0% -14.9% 53.1% 15.1% -15.4% -19.7% 3.7% 21.7%    
LaMarcus Aldridge 31.1% -37.8% 34.2% 43.9% 41.8% -20.1% -34.1% 27.8% 13.2%    
Danilo Gallinari 42.4% 24.0% -41.5% 100.5% -0.8% -3.6% -12.9% -16.8% 8.8%    
Jae Crowder 8.0% 25.7% -15.7% 23.4% -3.2% -15.2% 63.6% -9.5% 22.8%    
Carmelo Anthony 61.1% 18.1% -35.6% 47.6% 34.7% 24.8% -7.9% -6.7% -36.1%    
Victor Oladipo 21.2% 14.3% -23.0% 30.1% -7.5% 21.0% 57.5% 8.1% -21.8%    
Giannis Antetokounmpo 27.5% -28.2% 30.1% -20.9% 34.4% 28.7% 19.5% 53.0% -44.2%    
Chris Bosh 44.3% 22.2% -0.4% 23.9% 31.0% -5.8% -24.9% 0.9% 9.0%    
DeMar DeRozan 76.5% -18.2% -22.7% 97.6% -13.3% 24.2% 8.9% -25.2% -27.9%    
Nikola Vucevic 38.6% -44.0% 43.2% -1.2% 54.2% 0.1% -11.4% 32.0% -11.6%    
Ricky Rubio -22.3% -9.3% -47.2% 49.2% -17.0% 116.1% 113.0% -36.7% -45.8%    
Derrick Favors 26.5% -47.4% 41.8% -26.7% 45.4% -24.5% 23.3% 62.7% -1.0%    
Kevin Love 24.3% 49.2% -42.3% 36.1% 76.4% -6.5% -19.9% -7.4% -9.9%    
Trevor Ariza -2.6% 61.1% -37.3% 7.0% -14.0% -8.8% 104.4% -24.0% 14.1%    
Marc Gasol 29.8% -48.8% -3.8% 48.3% 28.4% 21.8% 0.9% 57.4% -33.9%    
CJ McCollum 70.0% 77.0% -26.2% 30.5% -39.5% 34.6% 28.9% -28.2% -47.1%    
Kristaps Porzingis 11.9% 5.8% -44.4% 42.3% 37.9% -34.2% -26.4% 108.6% -1.4%    
Gordon Hayward 68.4% 46.6% -43.9% 69.5% -8.1% 24.8% 29.7% -28.4% -58.6%    
Marvin Williams -13.0% 52.3% -11.8% 23.8% 23.2% -36.3% -30.2% 31.5% 60.6%    
Rudy Gay 43.1% 2.3% -5.6% 14.2% 24.9% -27.0% 60.6% 9.8% -22.3%    
Mike Conley 24.3% 23.4% -49.7% 56.7% -53.1% 90.1% 31.8% -34.6% 11.0%    
Kyrie Irving 72.7% 36.9% -29.3% 86.5% -55.0% 54.0% 14.1% -30.4% -49.6%    
Marcin Gortat 5.7% -67.4% 95.6% -27.4% 105.4% -37.8% -45.1% 67.8% 3.2%    
Blake Griffin 95.6% -57.5% 51.9% -33.1% 73.0% 61.4% -21.7% -15.7% -54.0%    
Name Impact PTS Impact 3PT Impact FG% Impact FT% Impact REB Impact AST Impact STL Impact BLK Impact TO    
Greg Monroe 27.8% -72.4% 66.4% -13.6% 86.7% -14.6% -6.2% 25.0% 0.9%    
Nicolas Batum 24.0% 70.5% -52.6% 52.9% 19.9% 94.1% -3.7% -1.8% -103.3%    
Rajon Rondo -13.2% -11.9% -15.5% -80.2% 18.9% 286.9% 160.2% -59.4% -186.0%    
Thaddeus Young 27.4% -71.4% 68.1% -56.4% 101.2% -29.8% 93.9% -15.2% -17.7%    
Gorgui Dieng -38.8% -75.9% 52.9% 48.6% 50.0% -34.5% 32.4% 69.9% -4.5%    
Tobias Harris 23.9% 2.8% 2.6% 57.2% 40.8% -18.3% -17.1% -13.9% 22.0%    
Jrue Holiday 57.2% 28.9% -53.3% 74.1% -74.5% 126.2% 75.7% -42.3% -91.9%    
Otto Porter -23.2% 29.3% 6.8% -1.6% -4.6% -50.6% 95.0% -33.2% 82.1%    
Jonas Valanciunas -3.1% -105.0% 128.7% 3.5% 137.5% -90.4% -115.5% 116.7% 27.6%    
Robert Covington -3.0% 157.9% -129.8% 26.7% 33.4% -57.9% 133.3% -5.4% -55.3%    
Serge Ibaka -6.8% -27.2% 19.9% -2.5% 56.3% -88.8% -106.1% 222.2% 33.1%    
Avery Bradley 50.0% 123.2% -49.6% 14.6% -115.8% -38.5% 164.8% -82.1% 33.5%    
Ryan Anderson 97.9% 139.5% -112.7% 166.4% 34.3% -100.7% -113.9% -58.2% 47.3%    
Brandon Knight 160.8% 187.7% -188.3% 140.8% -74.6% 144.3% 66.9% -57.3% -280.3%    
J.J. Redick 92.4% 270.1% 33.8% 168.8% -201.1% -93.7% -134.6% -148.3% 112.7%    
Evan Fournier 66.7% 160.4% -15.3% 115.1% -147.2% -3.6% 91.8% -163.0% -4.9%    
Nerlens Noel -51.6% -169.4% 113.9% -275.5% 162.3% -67.0% 284.8% 234.3% -131.8%    
Jeff Teague 83.9% 69.2% -89.2% 167.5% -172.4% 254.5% 111.2% -97.0% -227.6%    
Nikola Jokic -95.8% -125.5% 87.4% 68.5% 109.6% -30.9% 13.5% -1.3% 74.7%    
Monta Ellis 29.7% 11.3% -148.7% 44.0% -143.6% 173.8% 381.2% -53.0% -194.7%    
Eric Gordon 78.3% 308.0% -172.9% 216.4% -228.1% -5.1% 1.0% -105.6% 8.1%    
Reggie Jackson 403.4% 194.9% -305.6% 537.2% -309.0% 613.0% -177.0% -323.6% -533.3%    
Kent Bazemore -100.2% 192.4% -153.9% 147.5% -46.8% -88.7% 327.1% -87.3% -90.2%    
Darren Collison 77.5% 72.0% 127.8% 409.7% -494.3% 305.5% 70.9% -425.1% -44.0%    
George Hill -153.4% 726.4% -388.8% 16.3% -472.3% 336.0% 359.6% -656.7% 333.0%    
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 343.7% 632.8% -1123.7% 616.7% -748.4% -525.2% 1358.2% -858.1% 404.2%    
Luol Deng -174.1% 265.3% -300.9% -24.2% 347.1% -571.6% 152.5% -595.1% 1001.0%    
Will Barton 579.1% 850.1% -1438.2% 1126.0% 411.2% -272.3% -447.1% -605.6% -103.3%    
Nikola Mirotic -600.7% 3056.8% -2350.5% 1163.6% 151.4% -1553.4% -462.8% 324.5% 371.1%    
Patrick Beverley -1038.5% 1447.5% -780.4% -537.3% -1264.0% 540.4% 1541.2% -841.8% 832.8%    
Deron Williams 115.7% 285.9% -544.5% 617.0% -510.5% 794.7% -18.6% -402.0% -437.7%    
Gary Harris -71.1% 215.4% 17.5% 186.9% -511.4% -207.1% 401.1% -375.0% 243.5%    
Lou Williams 226.4% 356.3% -502.2% 762.0% -567.3% -62.4% -33.2% -318.0% 38.4%    
Rodney Hood 148.8% 578.6% -472.8% 426.3% -391.8% -12.3% -34.5% -389.7% 47.5%    
Rudy Gobert -236.7% -374.8% 280.2% -927.9% 726.1% -203.1% -165.5% 888.4% -86.7%    
Chandler Parsons 45.5% 250.9% 135.4% -173.0% -86.0% 6.3% -152.2% -167.7% 40.7%    
Dwyane Wade 355.0% -323.5% -85.8% 198.6% -155.1% 285.4% 83.6% -34.7% -423.4%    
Bradley Beal 253.3% 303.4% -126.5% 30.8% -228.4% 26.4% 20.4% -235.4% -144.0%    
Tim Duncan -238.7% -328.8% 64.0% -110.0% 227.5% -10.3% -123.1% 354.1% 65.4%    
JR Smith -30.7% 520.4% -258.1% -104.9% -283.3% -143.1% 65.9% -183.0% 316.9%    
Wesley Matthews -23.1% 428.3% -379.1% 174.3% -245.7% -106.1% 29.8% -201.8% 223.4%    
Robin Lopez -136.2% -306.2% 249.1% 64.3% 211.6% -174.8% -475.8% 456.2% 11.8%    
Andrew Bogut -274.0% -215.9% 195.3% -122.8% 126.6% -39.9% -222.6% 340.4% 112.9%    
Matt Barnes -82.6% 89.9% -184.3% 40.6% 10.0% -42.4% 25.1% 31.9% 11.9%    
Enes Kanter -7.4% -134.5% 204.9% 52.4% 146.8% -150.8% -199.3% -54.7% 42.6%    
Zach Randolph 54.8% -131.7% 21.4% 50.6% 121.4% -40.0% -94.8% -99.7% 17.8%    
Jordan Clarkson 58.1% 53.0% -93.0% 47.7% -66.0% -18.6% 46.1% -119.4% -7.9%    
Goran Dragic 25.5% -17.1% 21.3% -26.1% -69.1% 173.3% 9.0% -83.2% -133.7%    
Andrew Wiggins 164.4% -40.2% -23.8% 9.7% -76.8% -39.5% 2.6% -12.6% -83.8%    
Name Impact PTS Impact 3PT Impact FG% Impact FT% Impact REB Impact AST Impact STL Impact BLK Impact TO    
Al-Farouq Aminu -57.0% 64.2% -79.6% -13.7% 32.0% -56.6% -19.5% 3.4% 26.8%    
Cody Zeller -84.9% -120.4% 62.7% -3.3% 38.2% -91.1% -43.1% 45.0% 96.8%    
Taj Gibson -83.7% -116.1% 64.4% -43.1% 62.7% -63.3% -73.6% 78.0% 74.8%    
Kenneth Faried -8.6% -100.1% 119.8% -137.9% 116.8% -67.0% -99.0% 42.7% 33.2%    
Jabari Parker 17.7% -86.6% 41.4% 8.6% -4.4% -43.3% -9.1% -38.3% 14.0%    
Al Jefferson -16.3% -97.3% 26.2% -70.7% 35.8% -51.5% -62.8% 37.3% 99.4%    
Courtney Lee -52.0% 1.8% -14.3% 32.7% -89.7% -40.8% 26.3% -41.1% 77.2%    
Jared Sullinger -41.6% -61.3% -42.5% -62.5% 96.9% -17.4% -5.3% -7.3% 41.1%    
Omri Casspi -17.8% 55.2% 16.8% -66.6% 19.4% -53.7% -27.0% -56.3% 30.1%    
Ian Mahinmi -54.6% -90.3% 97.3% -138.3% 56.1% -48.7% -7.0% 60.9% 24.6%    
Michael Carter-Williams -21.3% -65.4% -19.3% -78.6% -7.1% 91.5% 97.3% 18.4% -115.5%    
Harrison Barnes -18.4% 19.6% -1.4% 2.0% -12.9% -36.7% -61.0% -67.5% 76.2%    
Kyle Korver -54.7% 83.5% -30.1% 12.9% -64.6% -25.6% -34.8% -28.7% 42.1%    
Jerryd Bayless -37.4% 80.2% -45.7% 8.9% -80.4% 14.4% -9.0% -55.7% 24.5%    
Aaron Gordon -54.4% -41.5% 4.7% -54.9% 35.3% -42.4% -35.5% 10.5% 78.1%    
PJ Tucker -72.3% -16.3% -49.2% -4.6% 27.3% -21.7% 60.9% -53.3% 29.1%    
Evan Turner -34.4% -65.1% -13.1% 37.4% -13.0% 61.0% 6.1% -38.5% -40.3%    
Marcus Morris 15.9% 27.1% -46.6% -6.6% -8.4% -8.2% -19.8% -45.0% -8.4%    
Amir Johnson -76.5% -72.3% 73.8% -67.0% 30.0% -35.2% -49.9% 54.9% 42.2%    
Myles Turner -36.0% -78.4% 31.5% -14.1% 6.0% -71.6% -90.7% 104.6% 48.7%    
Jahlil Okafor 61.3% -80.9% 69.8% -61.3% 48.3% -52.7% -90.9% 67.9% -61.5%    
Danny Green -77.9% 36.3% -74.6% -2.5% -43.1% -33.3% 7.9% 23.5% 63.7%    
Marcus Smart -49.8% -1.5% -114.8% 12.1% -31.7% 10.1% 87.5% -41.8% 30.0%    
Jose Calderon -70.6% 11.5% -5.5% 17.6% -59.1% 46.4% -12.7% -66.5% 38.9%    
Zach LaVine 13.6% 37.4% -21.0% 19.9% -69.7% 10.9% -18.1% -52.8% -20.2%    
Zaza Pachulia -55.1% -75.8% -0.8% 8.5% 107.5% -33.9% -17.3% -40.7% 7.6%    
Brandon Bass -70.8% -74.2% 40.7% 41.2% -26.2% -50.8% -66.6% 23.9% 82.9%    
Allen Crabbe -31.7% 25.5% -6.5% 31.0% -65.8% -45.8% -25.6% -48.6% 67.6%    
CJ Miles -14.1% 83.6% -57.1% -2.8% -63.9% -52.7% -18.2% -19.7% 45.0%    
Kelly Olynyk -34.8% 14.7% -9.6% -2.7% -30.7% -36.2% -28.7% -16.7% 44.9%    
Ish Smith -4.1% -20.0% -69.7% -29.0% -33.3% 111.0% 27.2% -35.1% -47.1%    
Manu Ginobili -38.9% 12.8% -10.5% 21.0% -67.7% 8.9% 26.3% -48.2% -3.8%    
Toney Douglas -47.9% 20.8% -38.4% 28.8% -71.1% -6.0% 27.4% -59.4% 45.7%    
Jared Dudley -56.9% 14.4% 6.4% -5.3% -42.4% -18.5% -3.8% -43.6% 49.7%    
Andre Iguodala -66.2% -12.5% 5.9% -35.0% -30.3% 17.7% 23.6% -36.0% 32.7%    
Jamal Crawford 13.2% 30.4% -71.5% 95.7% -81.2% -12.2% -40.6% -50.5% 16.6%    
Joe Johnson -8.0% 30.3% -28.1% 24.5% -40.0% 33.1% -27.4% -61.1% -23.2%    
Mirza Teletovic -7.9% 79.0% -34.8% 5.9% -33.2% -42.8% -71.1% -36.3% 41.1%    
Kobe Bryant 47.2% 60.9% -160.6% 51.4% -34.4% 1.1% -1.8% -42.5% -21.3%    
Willie Cauley-Stein -60.3% -61.6% 42.5% -36.1% -0.1% -56.6% -28.5% 36.0% 64.6%    
Mason Plumlee -38.5% -61.0% 26.5% -81.5% 48.8% 0.2% -15.5% 35.7% -14.7%    
Wesley Johnson -61.2% 16.0% -34.7% -10.4% -47.1% -54.7% 19.9% 6.8% 65.4%    
Terrence Ross -30.7% 45.7% -25.9% 4.8% -58.2% -49.7% -26.3% -27.2% 67.4%    
Dwight Howard 7.5% -59.3% 106.5% -300.2% 131.4% -34.1% 2.3% 90.0% -44.1%    
Thabo Sefolosha -63.9% -26.6% 14.6% -29.0% -18.4% -32.8% 20.2% -12.7% 48.5%    
Ersan Ilyasova -25.3% 16.1% -32.2% -12.7% 2.2% -45.7% -30.3% -17.1% 45.0%    
Tony Parker -10.3% -36.8% 20.7% 1.2% -58.0% 61.7% -24.3% -43.8% -10.3%    
Tony Allen -43.8% -44.5% -5.2% -37.1% -14.0% -40.2% 88.9% -31.7% 27.7%    
DeAndre Jordan -2.4% -57.8% 126.5% -430.8% 167.8% -38.3% -32.9% 151.0% 16.9%    
Name Impact PTS Impact 3PT Impact FG% Impact FT% Impact REB Impact AST Impact STL Impact BLK Impact TO    
Tristan Thompson -48.3% -57.3% 49.6% -67.8% 72.4% -47.7% -57.5% -0.7% 57.2%    
TJ Warren -18.8% -23.5% 25.2% -11.8% -43.3% -43.2% -19.3% -25.8% 60.5%    
Ed Davis -59.7% -56.0% 47.0% -79.3% 39.8% -39.1% -28.7% 23.0% 53.1%    
Steven Adams -45.9% -55.6% 60.2% -67.8% 24.9% -46.4% -48.8% 42.4% 36.9%    
Jeremy Lin -11.3% -2.4% -39.4% 33.6% -39.6% 5.8% -22.1% -7.8% -16.7%    
David West -51.4% -51.2% 33.1% 4.7% -25.1% -20.5% -42.5% 6.4% 46.5%    
Darrell Arthur -46.4% -19.1% -7.7% -0.3% -20.7% -30.0% -20.8% 4.6% 40.5%    
Jeff Green -10.3% -9.0% -27.0% -4.7% -20.8% -21.7% -23.6% -10.3% 27.3%    
Bismack Biyombo -61.0% -49.9% 18.3% -50.3% 45.7% -50.3% -73.9% 78.2% 43.2%    
Arron Afflalo -1.4% 12.8% -18.8% 21.3% -27.2% -14.7% -61.0% -38.1% 27.2%    
Langston Galloway -43.1% -3.8% -36.6% -0.6% -30.9% -4.6% -1.4% -27.9% 48.9%    
D'Angelo Russell 1.6% 28.9% -46.0% -6.7% -32.5% 11.8% 20.8% -35.8% -42.1%    
Julius Randle -13.0% -42.7% -26.9% -19.5% 82.0% -19.8% -29.7% -20.8% -9.7%    
Patrick Patterson -48.5% 15.3% -22.6% 5.6% -17.3% -31.7% -28.0% -17.1% 44.1%    
Jon Leuer -35.5% -18.4% 6.3% 1.0% 3.8% -33.7% -37.9% -13.7% 28.2%    
Jerami Grant -25.6% -26.5% -25.1% -56.1% -10.8% -20.3% -24.7% 77.1% 12.0%    
Roy Hibbert -55.2% -47.7% -8.3% 12.0% -7.0% -31.6% -54.6% 54.9% 37.5%    
Raymond Felton -26.4% -12.3% -34.0% 26.0% -34.1% 15.8% -9.9% -32.5% 7.4%    
Isaiah Canaan -15.2% 57.9% -65.5% 23.5% -49.6% -19.0% -21.6% -34.8% 24.2%    
Tyler Johnson -32.1% -12.1% 8.8% 9.2% -36.3% -10.7% -27.0% -17.4% 17.7%    
John Henson -44.2% -44.8% 30.8% -43.6% -22.6% -33.9% -58.5% 90.7% 26.2%    
Jeremy Lamb -30.2% -7.4% -7.7% -5.0% -23.3% -28.9% -28.5% -12.1% 43.2%    
Patty Mills -32.0% 21.4% -19.6% 4.7% -51.2% 0.8% -20.2% -38.3% 34.4%    
Markieff Morris -7.3% -12.2% -29.1% -6.4% 2.4% -14.9% -4.2% -6.7% -21.6%    
Tyson Chandler -41.7% -43.5% 33.5% -43.9% 50.9% -32.3% -36.4% 1.5% 11.8%    
TJ McConnell -47.8% -26.4% 0.9% -7.5% -32.9% 31.7% 19.0% -33.8% -3.3%    
Devin Booker 5.6% 11.7% -29.4% 33.0% -41.7% -2.3% -32.2% -24.2% -20.5%    
Shaun Livingston -45.7% -40.4% 19.3% 14.4% -45.2% 5.3% -18.9% -18.5% 29.8%    
Shane Larkin -38.9% -21.1% -10.0% 3.0% -43.4% 28.8% 22.5% -31.1% -9.7%    
Luis Scola -28.4% -6.6% -7.8% -4.0% -8.5% -32.0% -29.1% -17.6% 34.0%    
Larry Nance -49.2% -39.7% 16.0% -6.5% -5.4% -34.7% -7.9% -16.8% 44.4%    
Marcus Thornton -21.4% 18.3% -33.7% 13.1% -39.5% -22.5% -14.8% -35.1% 35.4%    
Jordan Hill -26.7% -39.3% 16.5% -8.6% 11.4% -25.7% -37.0% -7.6% 17.0%    
David Lee -33.6% -39.3% 21.5% 1.2% 2.8% -20.2% -44.5% -7.4% 19.6%    
Elfrid Payton -14.8% -23.2% -17.2% -48.1% -23.7% 60.1% 21.2% -21.8% -32.6%    
Derrick Rose 21.5% -13.4% -34.7% 10.7% -25.8% 32.0% -22.8% -25.5% -42.1%    
Kosta Koufos -39.3% -38.5% 19.3% -30.4% 1.1% -37.6% -34.7% 16.3% 43.8%    
Carl Landry -20.3% -32.1% 33.1% -5.8% -17.0% -30.0% -48.8% -23.0% 43.9%    
Hollis Thompson -19.6% 34.3% -33.4% -5.2% -23.5% -23.5% -38.0% -19.1% 28.0%    
Trevor Booker -43.6% -31.7% 5.8% -12.4% 4.9% -26.4% -15.8% -6.5% 25.8%    
Channing Frye -42.4% 10.3% -8.3% 5.3% -25.7% -27.1% -41.1% -13.5% 42.4%    
Andre Roberson -49.8% -20.5% 5.9% -11.9% -22.7% -32.5% -13.9% -1.7% 47.1%    
Iman Shumpert -43.7% -8.1% -27.2% 2.7% -20.1% -15.9% 3.5% -16.1% 25.0%    
Dennis Schroder -12.0% -2.0% -23.3% 8.0% -35.1% 24.9% -4.9% -29.9% -25.7%    
Norris Cole -13.9% -10.0% -33.8% 6.2% -24.4% 14.7% -9.5% -29.1% -0.4%    
Garrett Temple -33.2% 3.3% -21.7% -4.6% -32.9% -14.9% -6.6% -22.6% 33.2%    
Josh Richardson -36.8% 0.0% -3.8% -10.8% -39.5% -19.7% -18.7% -8.2% 37.5%    
Meyers Leonard -25.9% 13.1% -6.5% 0.3% -2.3% -17.8% -57.7% -18.0% 14.8%    
Frank Kaminsky -30.6% -6.0% -17.7% -4.8% -13.9% -22.1% -34.5% -5.3% 34.9%    
Jason Smith -31.8% -31.7% 5.5% 4.1% -28.5% -27.1% -35.5% 11.9% 33.1%    
Clint Capela -31.0% -31.8% 26.3% -93.4% 11.8% -28.6% -12.2% 28.4% 30.6%    
Nene Hilario -19.4% -31.4% 22.8% -51.7% -8.6% -13.8% -0.4% -8.6% 11.1%    
Andre Drummond 16.2% -29.7% 29.6% -251.3% 99.4% -24.6% 32.2% 36.2% -8.1%    

 

The first thing I'd like to determine is whether this chart supports or contradicts a few findings from the same analysis in March 2015. At that time, top-50 players tended to have high impact ratings for points and weighted FT percentages, as well as weak ratings for FG%. There was also just one true big man (DeMarcus Cousins) in the top-15 at that stage of the 2014-15 season.


This analysis uses 9-cat values for the entire 2015-16 season, and we find at least four big men in the top-15: Anthony Davis, Paul Millsap, Hassan Whiteside and Karl-Anthony Towns. There's no reason they can't all repeat the feat this year, with Al Horford also a candidate to join the club, making this elite group much more big-man-friendly than it was two years ago.

 

As for the heavy reliance on points and weighted FT%...that hasn't changed. One thing that's useful about color-coded conditional formatting is that it's easy to make broad assumptions at a glance. You don't need to know that the top-50 players had an average Impact of +32% for points and +25.3% for FT percentages -- one glance at the table shows huge swaths of green in those categories, with only occasional splotches of yellow or red (looking at you, Hassan and Draymond).


Let's get more specific about points. Keep in mind that we are not talking about which players contribute the most points among the top-150 players. This only tells us which players rely most heavily on the Impact of points for their overall fantasy value.


Excluding the unformatted block, the players most dependent upon scoring for their fantasy value were Andrew Wiggins, Brandon Knight, Ryan Anderson, Blake Griffin, J.J. Redick and DeMar DeRozan. It's important to note the word 'were' in that sentence, as this is an analysis of past performance, not a projection of future performance. For instance, Andrew Wiggins could add a consistent 3-point shot while improving last year's meager 3.6 rebounds per game, in which case he'll be significantly less reliant on points for value.


On the whole, this point-heavy group also derived significant value from 3-pointers and weighted FT%, while contributing little (or negatively) in FG%, rebounds, blocks and turnovers. High-volume scorers are fine in and of themselves, but I'm always leery of players whose value hinges so heavily on a single category...as you look over the chart, keep an eye out for huge Impact percentages.


The players least reliant on scoring for value were almost entirely lower-end players such as Matt Barnes, Brandon Bass, Bismack Biyombo and P.J. Tucker. This low-turnover group is basically a mix of big men and 3-and-D type swingmen -- guys like Taj Gibson, Ed Davis, Willie-Cauley-Stein and Roy Hibbert are joined by Andre Iguodala, Al-Farouq Aminu and Jared Dudley. As such, owners who don't need scoring can expect to find pockets of FG%, boards, blocks, 3-pointers and steals in the late rounds. You can draw many more conclusions and generalizations by comparing groups of players in the chart above, but let's shift our focus to individuals.


Kawhi Leonard came tantalizingly close to deriving positive value in every category. Instead, he barely missed with assists as an extremely minor dent at -0.9%. With his role poised to grow, if anything, there's no reason he should fall outside of the top-five in a 9-cat league. Kevin Durant lost value in turnovers but was otherwise just as pristine, barely missing a positive contribution in steals. It will be interesting to see how KD's value gets redistributed this year -- the expectation is that he'll derive less value from points, while potentially seeing an uptick in FG%, rebounds and assists.   Another noteworthy across-the-board contributor was Al Horford, whose lone negative was in steals at -7.8%. He has a unique ability to contribute assists and (as of last season) 3-pointers at the center position, without hurting you in FT%. The Celtics are expected to run their offense through him, highlighting his playmaking skills, and I'm really excited to see what Horford can do this year. As a GM who loves players that don't hurt you anywhere, I view Horford as a terrific second-round target.


With Russell Westbrook's absurd triple-double pace and scoring explosions, it's easy to overlook just how important assists were for his value last year. At 57.7% it was easily his most Impactful category, and he leapt almost two dimes per game -- from a previous career high of 8.6 to a whopping 10.4 last season, second only to Rondo. Interestingly, last season Westbrook made a combined 52.3% of his passes to Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. Dion Waiters also received 6.5% of Westbrook's passes, so he enters the season without most of his favorite targets.  

 

I'm unconcerned. Victor Oladipo should come close to matching the 'Durant' share of those passes, Ersan Ilyasova is in the mix, and high-percentage shooters Steven Adams (18.2%) and Enes Kanter (8.9%) will be targeted more to produce easy assists for WB. To fill out the picture, here is a comparison of Westbrook's assist numbers with and without Durant on the court (from NBAWowy.com).

 

  # of Assists per 100 Possessions % of Teammate FGM Assisted
With Durant 14.7 44.5%
Without Durant 15.0 52.8%


We know that Westbrook's usage rate and overall fantasy value escalated with Durant off the court, and it's safe to assume that his assist numbers won't be negatively impacted by Durant’s departure.


A few more observations...


Increased efficiency helped LaMarcus Aldridge overcome a dip in scoring and rebounds last season, and his biggest fantasy drags were 3-pointers (-37.8%), steals (-34.1%) and assists (-20.1%). He's never been good in those categories but could see an uptick in 3-pointers this year, as Gregg Popovich has reportedly encouraged him to add more perimeter shooting. That would clear extra space in the paint for Pau Gasol and dribble penetration, and Aldridge has proven that he can take a few steps back from his preferred range -- he made 0.5 triples on 35.2% shooting in his final year with the Blazers.


Mike Conley won't ever gain value from rebounds or blocks, but his -49.7% mark in FG percentage stands out like a sore thumb. Indeed, his 42.2% FGs last year was a career low, knocking him from the perch of being a 'won't-hurt-you-anywhere' guard. I'm expecting a bounce-back this year with Marc Gasol healthy, Chandler Parsons taking pressure off him offensively, and a new system that should result in more transition buckets (relatively speaking, at least). He's been the best PG remaining in the early-middle rounds of many mock drafts.


Once glance at Kenneth Faried's category impacts explains why fantasy owners' estimation of him has cratered in recent years. He simply has to contribute more than rebounds, FG% and sporadic blocks...but can he? With Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic emerging as the future of the Nuggets' frontcourt, it will likely take a trade to resurrect Faried as an upside pick.


I'm just scratching the surface and there's a lot more you can pick out, relating to individual players or broader trends...I encourage you to spend time exploring the chart at your leisure. If you want the Excel file, to sort by category or tweak it in other ways, just send me a private message on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Good luck to those of you who are drafting this week!

Ryan Knaus

Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for NBC Sports Edge since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.