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The Numbers Game

NBA Official Scoring: H2H PTS

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

We’ve all looked at a fantasy team and lamented, “If only I could re-draft this team, knowing what I know now…” Gordon Hayward, Blake Griffin and D’Angelo Russell on the same team? What are the odds? Letting Victor Oladipo fall to No. 42 overall, while Donovan Mitchell went undrafted? Huge mistakes.

 

Intelligent trades and waiver-wire moves can resuscitate even the most unfortunate fantasy teams, but there’s another fun option – draft a new team mid-season! In a recent ‘Roundtable’ column, the Rotoworld crew listed their top-12 players if they were re-drafting in December, but that doesn’t have to be only a thought experiment. The NBA has joined forces with major fantasy-hosting sites, including Yahoo, to make fantasy hoops easier than ever.

 

Just like fantasy football, owners face off in weekly head-to-head matchups. Lineups are set once each week and the scoring is a straightforward points-style system, familiar to anyone who has played DFS.

 

How to get started? Click here to create a league, then draft your team, set your lineup each week, and rack up more fantasy points than your opponents. Simple as that. (There's even an official NBA contest with a grand prize that includes an All-Star Weekend VIP package.)

 

In the NBA's Official scoring system, owners earn fantasy points for the following categories:

 

Points: 1

Rebounds: 1.2

Assists: 1.5

Steals: 3

Blocks: 3

Turnovers: -1  

 

The list below provides a snapshot of the difference in fantasy values between standard 9-cat leagues (PTS, 3PT, FG%, FT%, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO) and the NBA’s Official points system. The most glaring change is that FG and FT percentages don’t matter in this points league – if Dwight Howard goes 4-of-13 at the line, or Dion Waiters shots 2-of-11 from the field, they’re both giving you fantasy points without hurting you anywhere.

 

Just as important, if not as obvious, is the weight each category has in these leagues. The NBA’s Official scoring system gives clear preference to scoring, which accounts for more than 50% of total player value. Rebounds account for nearly ¼ of total value, with less importance given to assists and defensive stats. That’s not the case in 8-cat and 9-cat leagues, of course, where a handful of steals or blocks can be equivalent to 20+ points scored or a dozen rebounds. 

 

I’ve created the following table to illustrate the differences between category-based and points-based leagues. The column on the right shows the difference in value when moving from 9-cat to NBA Official points scoring – for instance, Dwight Howard's FT% doesn't matter and his turnovers take far less of a toll than they do in 9-cat, so his overall rank jumps more than 300 spots (!) to No. 38 overall. That's an extreme example, but it highlights a trend -- players who struggle with percentages (Andrew Wiggins, Lonzo Ball, Russell Westbrook, etc.) fare much better in the NBA Official scoring system.  


Editor’s Note: FanDuel is hosting their Super Duel for a Difference contest this Sunday, where you can win tickets to the Big Game in Minneapolis! Support a good cause and compete for an unforgettable grand prize.

 

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the list we'll see the players who do not fare well -- 3-point specialists, defensive specialists, and players who rely on efficiency. High-profile examples include Trevor Ariza (whose rank plummets 77 spots) and Jayson Tatum(down 50 spots).

 

This list excludes players who have appeared in fewer than 10 games and/or averaged fewer than 15.0 minutes per game. I’ve also excluded anyone who failed to make the top-200 in either fantasy format, which leaves us with 214 qualifying players. Without further ado, let’s look at how those players’ values change when going from category-based scoring (9-cat) to the NBA’s Official scoring (points):

 

*I'm not sure what happened to DSJ's ranks...they should read 264, 99, 165*

 

  9-cat Rank (per game) NBA Official PTS Rank (per game) Difference going from 9-cat to NBA Official PTS
Dwight Howard 346 38 308
Josh Jackson 381 193 188
Jusuf Nurkic 223 58 165
Dennis Smith Jr.
Brandon Ingram 229 65 164
D'Angelo Russell 179 36 143
Mason Plumlee 321 182 139
De'Aaron Fox 290 154 136
Andrew Wiggins 196 63 133
Marcus Smart 226 121 105
Dion Waiters 226 123 103
Lance Stephenson 274 171 103
Julius Randle 212 110 102
Emmanuel Mudiay 284 183 101
Jarrett Jack 260 162 98
Tyler Ulis 279 188 91
Trevor Booker 206 130 76
Jonathon Simmons 211 135 76
Jaylen Brown 171 97 74
Ish Smith 252 179 73
Lonzo Ball 118 47 71
Mike James 210 140 70
Dwyane Wade 173 106 67
Ben Simmons 75 10 65
Nicolas Batum 187 124 63
Caris LeVert 174 112 62
Mario Chalmers 239 177 62
Evan Turner 253 191 62
Domantas Sabonis 161 101 60
JaMychal Green 230 175 55
Russell Westbrook 56 5 51
Elfrid Payton 128 79 49
Frank Kaminsky 215 170 45
Kris Dunn 106 62 44
Tyler Zeller 237 194 43
Robin Lopez 155 115 40
John Henson 178 138 40
Mike Conley 115 76 39
Jerian Grant 185 146 39
Austin Rivers 138 100 38
Blake Griffin 53 16 37
John Wall 51 15 36
Goran Dragic 100 64 36
JJ Barea 156 122 34
Andre Drummond 45 12 33
Carmelo Anthony 85 52 33
TJ Warren 89 56 33
Pascal Siakam 218 185 33
Reggie Jackson 116 84 32
Willie Cauley-Stein 141 109 32
Harrison Barnes 84 53 31
Paul Millsap 77 48 29
Justise Winslow 204 176 28
DeMarre Carroll 110 83 27
Wilson Chandler 188 161 27
Ricky Rubio 122 96 26
Avery Bradley 153 127 26
Jordan Clarkson 154 128 26
Dennis Schroder 66 41 25
Marcin Gortat 129 104 25
DeMar DeRozan 47 23 24
Cody Zeller 197 174 23
Stanley Johnson 222 199 23
Dario Saric 139 117 22
James Johnson 111 90 21
Greg Monroe 164 144 20
Marc Gasol 40 21 19
Bradley Beal 49 31 18
Alex Len 143 125 18
Eric Bledsoe 59 42 17
Kyle Kuzma 108 91 17
Spencer Dinwiddie 87 72 15
Andre Iguodala 195 180 15
Danilo Gallinari 132 118 14
Joel Embiid 21 8 13
DeAndre Jordan 57 44 13
Yogi Ferrell 200 187 13
Markieff Morris 189 178 11
DeMarcus Cousins 13 4 9
Eric Gordon 104 95 9
Dwight Powell 209 200 9
Zach Randolph 81 73 8
Bobby Portis 137 129 8
Tyreke Evans 52 46 6
Jeff Teague 65 59 6
Tim Hardaway Jr 67 61 6
Donovan Mitchell 73 67 6
Devin Booker 34 29 5
Rudy Gobert 48 43 5
Taurean Prince 97 92 5
Giannis Antetokounmpo 4 1 3
Marcus Morris 134 132 2
Kemba Walker 29 28 1
Josh Richardson 159 158 1
Jerami Grant 191 190 1
LeBron James 2 2 0
Anthony Davis 6 6 0
Will Barton 55 55 0
David Nwaba 147 147 0
LaMarcus Aldridge 18 19 -1
Lauri Markkanen 70 71 -1
Rajon Rondo 86 87 -1
Tyson Chandler 130 131 -1
James Harden 1 3 -2
Kevin Durant 5 7 -2
Victor Oladipo 11 13 -2
Jimmy Butler 23 25 -2
Jrue Holiday 38 40 -2
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 79 81 -2
Jeremy Lamb 80 82 -2
Damian Lillard 8 11 -3
Kristaps Porzingis 10 14 -4
Kyle Lowry 30 34 -4
Hassan Whiteside 22 27 -5
Draymond Green 25 30 -5
Khris Middleton 32 37 -5
George Hill 160 165 -5
Kyle O'Quinn 162 167 -5
Stephen Curry 3 9 -6
Paul George 16 22 -6
Kevin Love 26 32 -6
Kent Bazemore 74 80 -6
Rudy Gay 96 102 -6
Denzel Valentine 135 141 -6
JR Smith 183 189 -6
Clint Capela 28 35 -7
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 146 153 -7
Noah Vonleh 194 201 -7
Karl-Anthony Towns 9 17 -8
Nikola Jokic 12 20 -8
CJ McCollum 41 49 -8
Derrick Favors 78 86 -8
Brook Lopez 90 98 -8
Marquese Chriss 176 184 -8
Nikola Vucevic 15 24 -9
Aaron Gordon 24 33 -9
Justin Holiday 76 85 -9
Bogdan Bogdanovic 163 172 -9
Norman Powell 199 208 -9
Steven Adams 50 60 -10
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 68 78 -10
Chris Paul 7 18 -11
Lou Williams 46 57 -11
Kelly Olynyk 148 159 -11
Kyrie Irving 14 26 -12
Al Horford 27 39 -12
Jamal Murray 121 133 -12
Patty Mills 151 163 -12
Terrence Ross 152 164 -12
Rodney Hood 95 108 -13
Terry Rozier 144 157 -13
Myles Turner 31 45 -14
TJ McConnell 136 150 -14
Taj Gibson 72 88 -16
Kelly Oubre 120 136 -16
DJ Augustin 182 198 -16
Pau Gasol 58 75 -17
Dewayne Dedmon 88 107 -19
John Collins 92 111 -19
Kyle Anderson 82 103 -21
Malcolm Brogdon 98 119 -21
Garrett Temple 192 214 -22
Enes Kanter 43 66 -23
Darren Collison 54 77 -23
Allen Crabbe 126 149 -23
Patrick Beverley 69 93 -24
Jeff Green 142 166 -24
Chandler Parsons 168 192 -24
Evan Fournier 42 68 -26
Thaddeus Young 44 70 -26
Wesley Matthews 107 134 -27
Jonas Valanciunas 117 145 -28
Klay Thompson 19 50 -31
Joe Harris 165 196 -31
Cory Joseph 149 181 -32
J.J. Redick 61 94 -33
Otto Porter 17 51 -34
Robert Covington 20 54 -34
Tobias Harris 35 69 -34
James Ennis 198 232 -34
Andre Roberson 175 210 -35
Dirk Nowitzki 103 139 -36
Tyler Johnson 114 151 -37
Alec Burks 131 168 -37
Gary Harris 36 74 -38
Luc Mbah a Moute 158 197 -39
Serge Ibaka 64 105 -41
Buddy Hield 102 143 -41
Danny Green 93 137 -44
Bam Adebayo 186 230 -44
Larry Nance 71 116 -45
Wesley Johnson 124 169 -45
Jarrett Allen 181 227 -46
Bojan Bogdanovic 101 148 -47
Marco Belinelli 105 152 -47
Ersan Ilyasova 109 156 -47
Jayson Tatum 39 89 -50
Jonathan Isaac 145 195 -50
Courtney Lee 60 113 -53
P.J. Tucker 133 186 -53
Delon Wright 150 203 -53
Shabazz Napier 180 234 -54
Joe Ingles 63 120 -57
E'Twaun Moore 83 142 -59
Ryan Anderson 94 155 -61
Al-Farouq Aminu 62 126 -64
Marvin Williams 91 160 -69
Thabo Sefolosha 99 173 -74
Nemanja Bjelica 172 246 -74
Trevor Ariza 37 114 -77
C.J. Miles 127 205 -78
Wayne Ellington 157 240 -83
Kyle Korver 113 206 -93
Tony Snell 123 217 -94

 

Another key aspect of NBA Official leagues is the emphasis on weekly lineups – set your team once on Sunday or Monday, and that’s it. Of course, this puts tremendous importance on the number of games played each week. Who is more valuable, Russell Westbrook with two games or Dennis Schroder with three games? If James Harden plays three times this week, does it make sense to instead draft Paul George with an extra game? 

 

The Rotoworld Season Pass has multiple resources to help owners maximize value on a week-by-week basis. Steve Alexander (@docktora) recently posted a column about rest-of-season schedules – for instance, the Pacers, Grizzlies and Raptors look good as the only teams with seven four-game weeks remaining this season. There are explanations of teams to target and avoid each week, and an all-important breakdown of various playoff schedules. Check it out

 

I’ve also posted a Season Pass column projecting NBA Official values for the top 200+ players from weeks 10-14 (Dec. 18 through Jan. 22). The projections are based on season-long performance, recent trends, games played, injury timetables, and various other factors. For instance, LaMarcus Aldridge has averaged 39.4 fantasy points per game this season, but I expect that to dip to around 35 per game with Kawhi active. That change is reflected in the numbers. Steph Curry isn't likely to play in Week 10, so I've assigned him a zero for that period. For a handful of players, I've also reduced expected point totals if a back-to-back set might cost them a game, or otherwise result in reduced production.  

 

Below is a sample, and you can view the full list of 200+ players right here:  

 

  Projected NBA Official Fantasy Points for Week 10 (Dec. 18) Week 11 (Dec. 25) Week 12 (Jan. 1) Week 13 (Jan. 8) Week 14 (Jan. 15)
Giannis Antetokounmpo 168.3 168.3 224.4 224.4 168.3
LeBron James 111.6 155 155 155 155
James Harden 163.2 217.6 163.2 163.2 163.2
DeMarcus Cousins 159.6 159.6 106.4 212.8 159.6
Russell Westbrook 200.4 200.4 150.3 150.3 150.3
Anthony Davis 144.9 144.9 96.6 193.2 144.9
Kevin Durant 186.8 186.8 140.1 186.8 140.1
Joel Embiid 176 172 91.2 45.6 136.8
Ben Simmons 181.2 181.2 90.6 45.3 135.9
Stephen Curry 0 125 130 180.4 135.3
Andre Drummond 86.6 129.9 129.9 129.9 173.2
Damian Lillard 171.6 85.8 171.6 171.6 128.7
Victor Oladipo 127.2 169.6 84.8 169.6 169.6
John Wall 125.1 166.8 125.1 125.1 125.1
Kristaps Porzingis 122.1 162.8 162.8 122.1 162.8
Karl-Anthony Towns 120.6 160.8 160.8 160.8 120.6
Chris Paul 118.5 158 118.5 118.5 118.5
LaMarcus Aldridge 140.8 105.6 140.8 105.6 140.8
Marc Gasol 117.3 156.4 78.2 78.2 156.4
Paul George 156 156 117 117 117
Nikola Jokic 134 116.7 116.7 155.6 116.7
DeMar DeRozan 114.6 114.6 114.6 152.8 152.8

 

I'm excited to hear owners' experiences with the NBA’s "official" fantasy format, which allows you to build and manage leagues with the utmost speed and simplicity. If you have any questions or comments, let me know via email or on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Enjoy!

Ryan Knaus

Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for NBC Sports Edge since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.