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The Numbers Game

Rest-of-Season NBA Schedules

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Follow @Knaus_RW and @Rotoworld_BK on Twitter.

 

In last week's edition of 'The Numbers Game' we analyzed each team's value to opponents since the All-Star break. The Jazz emerged as the toughest team to face on an overall basis, the Kings were the most lenient, and we determined, for instance, that the Bucks are the easiest team to face if you're targeting steals. At the other end of the spectrum, the Hornets are the least likely team to allow steals to their opponents. You can read that column here.

 

We will expand upon that analysis this week, using each team's remaining schedule to figure out how easy or hard their matchups are, with an emphasis on specific categories. Fantasy owners still grinding away at this late stage of the season are likely to be targeting specific categories, choosing between two similarly-scrubby free agents and poring over the schedule grid, so my aim is to inform those decisions and make them a bit easier.

 

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Below is a synopsis of all 30 teams' remaining schedules. The 'rating' for each category and overall value is cumulative, not per-game, as I'm simply trying to determine the best teams/players for total value in the final stretch. Most teams play eight games but the Kings, Pelicans, Blazers, Lakers, Nets and Hornets each play nine more times. On the other hand, the Suns, 76ers, Grizzlies, Clippers, Hawks and Cavaliers have only seven games remaining.

 

The numbers for each team indicate the cumulative z-scores for their opponents in a given category. Excluding the 'Total' column, each category typically ranges from -5.0 to +5.0, with positive numbers indicating favorable matchups and vice versa. The Nets, for instance, have a +7.3 matchup rating for 3-pointers -- that's an outlier and it's the highest positive matchup of any team in any category (which bodes well for Joe Johnson, Alan Anderson and others). The most intimidating matchup is the Grizzlies' FG% at a brutal -7.5. Among their final seven opponents are the Jazz, Clippers, Pacers, Warriors and Wizards, all of whom rank in the bottom six for FG% allowed since the A.S. break. It's an unforgiving slate for the Grizzlies. I'll forego any further analysis this week, as the numbers are self-explanatory. There's a table at the end of the column which combines all of the teams for easy comparison. Enjoy.

 

Atlanta Hawks - 7 games - Nets, Suns, Nets, Hornets, Wizards, Knicks & Bulls

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Hawks

1.9

0.4

3.1

-0.5

-2.1

-3.5

-0.6

-1.6

4.5

1.8

 

 

Boston Celtics - 8 games - Pacers, Bucks, Raptors, Pistons, Cavaliers, Cavaliers, Raptors & Bucks

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Celtics

-1.9

0.2

-1.6

4.2

0.9

2.7

0.6

2.8

-1.2

6.7

 

 

Brooklyn Nets - 9 games - Knicks, Raptors, Hawks, Trail Blazers, Hawks, Wizards, Bucks, Bulls & Magic

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Nets

1.3

7.3

0.1

3.9

2.8

-0.1

3.6

-0.4

-0.9

17.5

 

 

Charlotte Hornets - 9 games - Pacers, 76ers, Heat, Raptors, Hawks, Pistons, Rockets & Raptors

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Hornets

0.2

0.9

4.1

2.8

-0.8

3.0

-0.3

4.3

-4.0

10.1

 

 

Chicago Bulls - 8 games - Bucks, Pistons, Cavaliers, Magic, Heat, 76ers, Nets & Hawks

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Bulls

0.1

3.5

0.4

5.4

1.8

1.2

1.9

1.7

-5.2

10.9

 

 

Cleveland Cavaliers - 7 games - Heat, Bulls, Bucks, Celtics, Celtics, Pistons & Wizards

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Cavaliers

-2.1

-1.5

2.2

-1.1

-0.7

0.0

-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

-8.0

 

 

Dallas Mavericks - 8 games - Thunder, Rockets, Warriors, Suns, Nuggets, Lakers, Jazz & Trail Blazers

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Mavericks

-0.9

-2.8

-1.6

-2.1

2.5

-1.7

-3.3

-0.2

1.0

-9.1

 

 

Denver Nuggets - 8 games - Jazz, Spurs, Clippers, Lakers, Mavericks, Kings, Clippers & Warriors

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Nuggets

-1.4

-0.3

-3.7

-1.4

0.4

-4.6

-2.2

-1.2

-0.5

-14.9

 

 

Detroit Pistons - 8 games - Hornets, Bulls, Heat, Celtics, Pacers, Hornets, Cavaliers & Knicks

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Pistons

-1.7

-2.8

1.3

-3.4

-6.3

-1.3

-2.1

-0.5

5.6

-11.4

 

 

Golden State Warriors - 8 games - Suns, Mavericks, Spurs, Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Timberwolves, Grizzlies & Nuggets

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Warriors

0.8

-2.9

-0.2

-0.4

1.1

0.4

4.1

-0.9

0.6

2.4

 

 

Houston Rockets - 8 games - Kings, Mavericks, Thunder, Spurs, Spurs, Pelicans, Hornets & Jazz

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Rockets

-0.6

-1.2

-6.2

-3.9

2.1

-0.8

1.1

-2.9

2.4

-9.9

 

 

Indiana Pacers - 8 games - Celtics, Hornets, Heat, Knicks, Pistons, Thunder, Wizards & Grizzlies

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Pacers

-0.6

-0.4

-0.3

-0.4

-5.4

-1.0

-0.2

1.1

0.5

-6.8

 

 

L.A. Clippers - 7 games - Blazers, Nuggets, Lakers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Nuggets & Suns

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Clippers

0.7

-4.2

0.1

2.3

0.0

5.6

1.8

0.4

1.8

8.4

 

 

L.A. Lakers - 9 games - Pelicans, Blazers, Clippers, Clippers, Nuggets, Wolves, Mavericks, Kings & Kings

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Lakers

5.5

1.2

-1.2

4.2

0.6

2.8

5.2

-0.5

2.7

20.5

 

 

Memphis Grizzlies - 7 games - Thunder, Wizards, Pelicans, Jazz, Clippers, Warriors & Pacers

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Grizzlies

-4.5

-1.9

-4.0

-6.3

-2.4

-4.2

-7.5

0.7

2.3

-27.7

 

 

Miami Heat - 8 games - Cavaliers, Pistons, Pacers, Hornets, Bulls, Raptors, Magic & 76ers

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Heat

-1.3

-1.3

2.2

-0.6

-5.7

2.4

-0.7

3.4

2.9

1.1

 

 

Milwaukee Bucks - 8 games - Bulls, Celtics, Magic, Cavs, Knicks, Nets, 76ers & Celtics

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Bucks

1.8

-1.1

5.4

-0.6

-2.2

0.8

1.3

-0.3

0.3

5.5

 

 

Minnesota Timberwolves - 8 games - Raptors, Magic, Kings, Blazers, Lakers, Warriors, Pelicans & Thunder

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Wolves

4.1

2.4

-5.1

2.9

1.1

1.6

3.9

-0.5

3.8

14.2

 

 

New Orleans Pelicans - 9 games - Lakers, Kings, Blazers, Warriors, Grizzlies, Suns, Rockets, Wolves & Spurs

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Pelicans

2.4

-0.2

-2.0

0.7

3.8

-1.5

2.3

-1.1

0.9

5.4

 

 

New York Knicks - 8 games - Nets, Wizards, 76ers, Pacers, Bucks, Magic, Hawks & Pistons

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Knicks

0.2

4.9

3.1

2.7

0.4

1.3

-0.9

5.1

-3.7

13.2

 

 

Oklahoma City Thunder - 8 games - Mavs, Grizzlies, Rockets, Spurs, Kings, Pacers, Trail Blazers & Wolves

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Thunder

2.1

1.5

0.5

-0.7

2.5

0.8

2.9

-0.7

0.1

9.0

 

 

Orlando Magic - 8 games - Spurs, Wolves, Bucks, Bulls, Raptors, Knicks, Heat & Nets

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Magic

2.9

2.0

0.5

2.2

3.8

-1.5

3.4

-3.7

0.2

9.8

 

 

Philadelphia 76ers - 7 games - Wizards, Hornets, Knicks, Wizards, Bulls, Bucks & Heat

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

76ers

-1.8

1.6

-1.0

-2.0

-0.4

-2.8

-1.9

-4.1

1.5

-10.9

 

 

Phoenix Suns - 7 games - Warriors, Jazz, Hawks, Mavs, Pelicans, Spurs & Clippers

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Suns

-4.3

-1.4

-2.6

-3.9

0.4

-4.5

-2.5

-0.2

-2.3

-21.3

 

 

Portland Trail Blazers - 9 games - Clippers, Lakers, Pelicans, Nets, Wolves, Warriors, Jazz, Thunder & Mavs

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Blazers

-0.6

-0.8

-2.4

-1.2

0.3

-3.9

-2.0

-1.6

1.5

-10.6

 

 

Sacramento Kings - 9 games - Rockets, Pelicans, Jazz, Wolves, Jazz, Thunder, Nuggets, Lakers & Lakers

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Kings

-3.8

-4.4

-4.4

-3.1

3.3

2.9

-3.9

-4.3

2.6

-15.2

 

 

San Antonio Spurs - 8 games - Magic, Nuggets, Warriors, Thunder, Rockets, Rockets, Suns & Pelicans

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Spurs

2.6

1.2

2.6

-1.9

2.4

0.7

-1.9

1.7

-2.8

4.6

 

 

Toronto Raptors - 8 games - Wolves, Nets, Celtics, Hornets, Magic, Heat, Celtics & Hornets

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Raptors

-0.5

0.0

-1.1

0.2

0.3

-0.6

-0.1

-1.7

-1.2

-4.8

 

 

Utah Jazz - 8 games - Nuggets, Suns, Kings, Kings, Grizzlies, Blazers, Mavs & Rockets

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Jazz

4.1

2.1

-0.4

2.5

4.7

5.3

4.5

-0.9

-0.8

21.0

 

 

Washington Wizards - 8 games - 76ers, Knicks, Grizzlies, 76ers, Nets, Hawks, Pacers & Cavs

 

 

PTS

3PT

REB

AST

STL

BLK

FG%

FT%

TO

TOTAL

Wizards

4.7

1.8

-12.1

0.3

9.0

-0.6

4.9

-7.6

11.0

11.3

 

 

Finally, here is the whole lot of them compiled into one table.

 

  PTS 3PT REB AST STL BLK FG% FT% TO TOTAL
Hawks 1.9 0.4 3.1 -0.5 -2.1 -3.5 -0.6 -1.6 4.5 1.8
Celtics -1.9 0.2 -1.6 4.2 0.9 2.7 0.6 2.8 -1.2 6.7
Nets 1.3 7.3 0.1 3.9 2.8 -0.1 3.6 -0.4 -0.9 17.5
Hornets 0.2 0.9 4.1 2.8 -0.8 3.0 -0.3 4.3 -4.0 10.1
Bulls 0.1 3.5 0.4 5.4 1.8 1.2 1.9 1.7 -5.2 10.9
Cavaliers -2.1 -1.5 2.2 -1.1 -0.7 0.0 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -8.0
Mavericks -0.9 -2.8 -1.6 -2.1 2.5 -1.7 -3.3 -0.2 1.0 -9.1
Nuggets -1.4 -0.3 -3.7 -1.4 0.4 -4.6 -2.2 -1.2 -0.5 -14.9
Pistons -1.7 -2.8 1.3 -3.4 -6.3 -1.3 -2.1 -0.5 5.6 -11.4
Warriors 0.8 -2.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.1 0.4 4.1 -0.9 0.6 2.4
Rockets -0.6 -1.2 -6.2 -3.9 2.1 -0.8 1.1 -2.9 2.4 -9.9
Pacers -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -5.4 -1.0 -0.2 1.1 0.5 -6.8
Clippers 0.7 -4.2 0.1 2.3 0.0 5.6 1.8 0.4 1.8 8.4
Lakers 5.5 1.2 -1.2 4.2 0.6 2.8 5.2 -0.5 2.7 20.5
Grizzlies -4.5 -1.9 -4.0 -6.3 -2.4 -4.2 -7.5 0.7 2.3 -27.7
Heat -1.3 -1.3 2.2 -0.6 -5.7 2.4 -0.7 3.4 2.9 1.1
Bucks 1.8 -1.1 5.4 -0.6 -2.2 0.8 1.3 -0.3 0.3 5.5
Wolves 4.1 2.4 -5.1 2.9 1.1 1.6 3.9 -0.5 3.8 14.2
Pelicans 2.4 -0.2 -2.0 0.7 3.8 -1.5 2.3 -1.1 0.9 5.4
Knicks 0.2 4.9 3.1 2.7 0.4 1.3 -0.9 5.1 -3.7 13.2
Thunder 2.1 1.5 0.5 -0.7 2.5 0.8 2.9 -0.7 0.1 9.0
Magic 2.9 2.0 0.5 2.2 3.8 -1.5 3.4 -3.7 0.2 9.8
76ers -1.8 1.6 -1.0 -2.0 -0.4 -2.8 -1.9 -4.1 1.5 -10.9
Suns -4.3 -1.4 -2.6 -3.9 0.4 -4.5 -2.5 -0.2 -2.3 -21.3
Blazers -0.6 -0.8 -2.4 -1.2 0.3 -3.9 -2.0 -1.6 1.5 -10.6
Kings -3.8 -4.4 -4.4 -3.1 3.3 2.9 -3.9 -4.3 2.6 -15.2
Spurs 2.6 1.2 2.6 -1.9 2.4 0.7 -1.9 1.7 -2.8 4.6
Raptors -0.5 0.0 -1.1 0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.1 -1.7 -1.2 -4.8
Jazz 4.1 2.1 -0.4 2.5 4.7 5.3 4.5 -0.9 -0.8 21.0
Wizards 4.7 1.8 -12.1 0.3 9.0 -0.6 4.9 -7.6 11.0 11.3
                     
Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.