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Odds and Ends

2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: QB predictions

by Covers.com
Updated On: April 18, 2020, 1:11 pm ET

Player to be drafted first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft

Joe Burrow -2,500
Chase Young +1,400
Tua Tagovailoa +1,600
Justin Herbert +2,800
Anybody Else +2,800

At -2,800 there's absolutely no value in taking Burrow here, even with his selection almost a sure thing. So let's focus on some of the other NFL Draft prop bets for value.


When will Tua Tagovailoa be picked?

Second Overall Selection +350
Third Overall Selection +165
Fourth Overall Selection +800
Fifth Overall Selection +160
Sixth Overall Selection +800
Any other pick +675

A healthy Tua Tagovailoa would have arguably given Burrow a run at No. 1 and should still be a very high pick. No. 3 and No. 5 seem the most likely destinations for Tua, with the Dolphins in need of a franchise QB and rumors that the Lions will look to trade down with a quarterback-hungry team or may even take Tua with an eye for the future.

However, the Giants' spot at No. 4 holds terrific value at +800. The Giants drafted Daniel Jones in the first round last year and most reports have them zeroing in on an offensive tackle to protect Jones. With excellent depth at the OT position this year, the G-Men would be in prime spot to trade down with a team looking to leapfrog the Dolphins and Chargers.

PREDICTION: Despite injury concerns, we also like Tua to be the second QB drafted at -130. 



When Will Justin Herbert be picked?

Justin Herbert draft position -120 -120

The Oregon quarterback has impressed teams with his prototypical pocket-passer attributes and there are reports that some teams prefer him to Tua at this point in the evaluation process. Several mock drafts, including Mel Kiper Jr's latest, have Herbert going to the Dolphins at No. 5 even with Tua still on the board.

.@MelKiperESPN released his latest mock draft where he has the Dolphins selecting Justin Herbert with the No. 5 pick, ahead of Tua 👀 pic.twitter.com/Sg7iK6oEpc

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) April 14, 2020


We're expecting a team to trade up to No. 3 or No. 4 for a QB, which would make Herbert a solid bet to either be the target of those trades or one hell of a consolation prize for Miami. We like the Under 6 with Herbert because even if he slides to the Chargers at No. 6 your bet would still push.

PREDICTION: We also like Herbert to be the third QB off the board at -120.


When will Jordan Love be picked?

Jordan Love draft position +108 -138

Love has been flying up draft boards and has been going as high as No. 6 to the Chargers in recent mock drafts. That said, Love underperformed during the 2019 season and may be getting a bit too much "love" by sportsbooks at this number.


With teams like the Packers, Saints, and Patriots showing serious interest in the QB, expect him to last until the later part of the first round. While the Dolphins have also been linked to Love (is there a QB they haven't been linked to?) keep in mind that Miami also has two picks later on in the first round.

PREDICTION: We're taking the Over. 


When will Jalen Hurts get picked?

Round 1 +640
Round 2 +135
Round 3 +115
Round 4 +400

Most mock drafts have Hurts getting picked towards the end of the second round or the beginning of the third, but teams have reached for quarterbacks before. Hurt had a fantastic season in 2019 after transfering to Oklahoma, showing tremendous growth as a passer.

His ability as a runner will also help his draft stock in a copy-cat league which just saw Lamar Jackson dominate. All it takes is one team to fall in love with Hurts for him to go in the first round.

PREDICTION: Round 1 at +640 that's great value. 


Number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round?

How many QBs will be drafted in the Round 1? +300 -500

Burrow, Tua and Herbert are practically locks for the first round and Love is starting to look like a sure-fire first rounder as well. So really this wager comes down to whether or not you think Hurts or Jacob Eason will sneak into the tail end of Round 1. 

Eason has NFL-caliber size and arm strength but he doesn't have the mobility, anticipation, footwork or pocket prescence that teams look for in the modern game. Hurts is the superior prospect when it comes to those categories, but if you think the OU signal-caller will go in the first round you're better off taking his individual bet at +640 as opposed to the bet here at +300.

PREDICTION: There's little value with this wager but we're leaning towards the Under.