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Tyler Glasnow
Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Odds and Ends

4/17/21 MLB K Props: Alcantara, Glasnow

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: April 17, 2021, 11:15 am ET

Tyler Glasnow O/U 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Yankees

Tyler Glasnow has been on a tear this season for the Rays, and now he travels to Yankee Stadium. The Rays are 2-2 against the Yankees this season after the 8-2 loss yesterday. However, Tampa Bay went 8-2 in the 10 games versus New York last season.

To start the season, the Yankees have struggled with left-handed pitchers, and Glasnow could certainly present issues. New York's OBP ranks 25th (.295), 25th in SLG (.372), 26th in OPS (.667), and 13th in batting average (.241) across the league. The Yankees also have the 13th-most strikeouts to lefties (37) on the ninth-most at-bats (145). 

NBC's model projects Glasnow to last 6.2 innings with 8.6 strikeouts, 5.6 hits and 2.8 earned runs. Glasnow has one earned run on the season, seven hits and 29 strikeouts across three games. 

Glasnow2

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After the Yankees 8-2 win, the most runs they have scored since the last meeting with Tampa Bay, they will be swinging for the fences today. Glasnow has shown four pitches this season and among league-lead for stats such as fastball velocity, chase rate, k rate, curve spin and whiff percentage, he is in 80th percentile or better of all.

Glasnow has had success versus more than a few Yankees' hitters. He struck out Mathieu four times in nine tries, Gary Sanchez five times in eight attempts and Gleyber Torres three times in six appearances over Glasnow's young career. 

If he can negate the bats of those three and the combo of either Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton, I see Glasnow going beyond six innings and over seven strikeouts.

The odds are -170 on Glasnow at Over 7.5 strikeouts, which is unplayable straight up. Wait for 8.5 and take it on a small bet at + money or do a half-unit parlay on Glasnow Over 7.5 with my next guy at a +164 payout.

Edge: Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts

 

Sandy Alcantara O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Giants

The Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. Coming off three wins out of a four-game series with the Braves, the Marlins opened with a 4-1 victory over the Giants.

Marlins' pitcher Sandy Alcantara is projected to have 6.8 strikeouts by NBC's model, a nice cushion on the Over 5.5 Ks. He has had a tremendous start to the season and that is expected of him once again. Alcantara is projected to have the sixth-most strikeouts on Saturday's slate.

Sandy projection

 

Alcantara has allowed eight hits and struck out eight in 35 plate appearances versus this Giants roster. He did hold the Giants to one earned run over 13 innings in 2019 with nine total Ks in two starts.

Alcantara opened the season with seven and 10 strikeouts before a season-low four in his previous.

The Giants are a good bounceback spot for Alcantara. The Giants rank 28th in batting average (.203), 28th in hits (83) and 18th in strikeouts (118) to start the season.

Of the 13 Giants' hitters that qualified, 12 have a first pitch swing percentage of 50% or higher, per BaseballSavant. Five ranked above average or better in whiff percentage, while eight finished below average or poor.

Both benefit Alcantara and the Over on his strikeout prop.

In yesterday's 4-1 win in favor of the Marlins, who are hot winners in five of the last six, the Giants only struck out four times against the bullpen. They faced rookie pitcher Daniel Castano who allowed three hits, two walks and one earned run over five innings. Both walks were on full counts.

While Castano was not expected to strike out a ton, Alcantara is the type of player to do so. Getting a day to watch this Giants team benefited him rather than starting yesterday. 

Alcantara has lasted 6.0 or 6.1 innings in all three starts this season and averaged 88.7 pitches per start with 90 and 93 in his last two. He is making his mark in this interesting and successful rotation centered around Trevor Rodgers, Pablo Lopez and Alcantara. 

Expect Alcantara to bring his A-game as a bounceback from his last performance.

Pick: Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and also a contributor on numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.