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Odds and Ends

Best KC-TB Super Bowl LV Props on PointsBet

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: February 10, 2021, 3:30 pm ET

Super Bowl LV has arrived, and we have some of the quirkiest Super Bowl prop bets for Kansas City Chiefs versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It is Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes for the most anticipated sporting event of the year. 

We have defensive player props, the longest play, challenge flag, and timeout props lined up for the Super Bowl. Enjoy!

PointsBetting Longest Completed Pass or Longest Rush: 

Mahomes has eight plays of 40-plus yards passing and the second-most passes completed beyond 20 yards (67). Brady trails Mahomes as the third-leading quarterback with 63 completed passes of 20 or more yards. Brady is tied-fourth in the NFL with 12 plays of 40 or more yards. Both quarterbacks will take their shots deep, and with Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and more, who can blame them? 

There were six plays of 25 or more yards on the ground and through the air in last season's Super Bowl. Tyreek Hill had a 44-yard reception and Sammy Watkins 28 yards through the air for the Chiefs. Kansas City's Damien Williams had three runs of 10 or more yards, including a 38-yarder to end the game. 

Tampa Bay can break the big play with Brady still. In Brady's last Super Bowl versus the Rams, he threw three passes of 25 or more yards. With the trio of wide receivers he has now and his tight end duo, expect both teams to take shots to gain momentum from one another. I would take the Over on both longest rush and completed pass.

There are also fun QB bands for longest completion that peg Brady to have a pass between 25-39 yards for +120 odds and Mahomes for a 40-54 yarder at +185 odds. Both are great deals and Mahomes 25-39 yards is not a bad backup at +125. 

Pick: Over 13.5 Longest Rush (+100), Brady Longest Completion 25-39 yards (+120), Mahomes Longest Completion 40-54 (+185)

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PointsBetting Time of First Touchdown:

Since 2010, there have been seven first-quarter touchdowns, including three in the last four Super Bowls. Only one time since 2013 has a team scored before the 10-minute mark, and since 2014, only one team has scored before the halfway mark in the first quarter.

2019: 1st TD with 0:31 minutes left in 1Q

2018: 1st TD with 7:00 minutes left in 4Q

2017: 1st TD with 2:34 minutes left in 1Q

2016: 1st TD with 12:15 minutes left in the 1Q

2015: 1st TD with 9:14 minutes left in the 2Q

2014: 1st TD with 12:00 minutes left in the 2Q

2013: 1st TD with 10:36 minutes left in the 1Q

2012: 1st TD with 3:24 minutes left in the 1Q

2011: 1st TD with 3:44 minutes left in the 1Q

2010: 1st TD with 0:36 minutes left in the 1Q

In the first quarter, Kansas City averaged 6.8 points per game on the road this season. Kansas City scored in the first quarter versus Cleveland (9:11) and allowed Buffalo to in the AFC Championship (6:14). Tampa Bay only averages 3.8 points in the first quarter but scored quickly in their last game versus Green Bay (10:59). 

Tampa Bay scored in the first quarter versus Washington (2:51), but both they and New Orleans failed to record a touchdown in the divisional round's opening frame. I would bet both teams are forced to punt or held to a field goal on their first drives as one of the last six Super Bowls have featured a quick score in the opening quarter. I would bet this past the halfway mark and the first touchdown to be in the second quarter if you can get odds.

Pick: Over 10 Minutes (-110)

 

Player Tackles + Assists

Sean Murphy-Bunting, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In the postseason, Murphy-Bunting has been on fire. Not only has he made his way flying around the field, combing for 11 solo tackles the past two games, but Murphy-Bunting has intercepted a pass in three straight games despite only recording one in the regular-season.  

Murphy-Bunting had five tackles in the meeting with Kansas City earlier in the year, and you can expect more of that in the Super Bowl. To end the season, he had five or more tackles in five-of-six games, and including the postseason, Murphy-Bunting has totaled five or more in seven-of-nine games. 

Betting on Murphy-Bunting to complete the postseason interception sweep and pick off Mahomes is +700 too. Murphy-Bunting is +20000 to win Super Bowl MVP, which would take an interception or two from Mahomes, but not far fetched.

Pick: Over 4.5 (-130)

 

Tyrann Mathieu, Kansas City Chiefs

Tyrann Mathieu, aka the honeybadger, has recorded five and six solo tackles the past two games, combining for 13 total tackles for the Chiefs. Similar to Murphy-Bunting, Tyrann Mathieu has been all over the field. Mathieu had an interception on Baker Mayfield versus the Browns to open the postseason, and in the meeting with Tamp Bay earlier this year, Mathieu had five total tackles on four solos. 

Mathieu recorded six tackles (four solo) versus the 49ers in last season's Super Bowl. In three postseason games last year, he had 18 total tackles. Mathieu is one of the leaders on the defense and a pure playmaker. I love him on tackles, an interception (+300), and a longshot MVP (+4000).

Pick: Over 4.5 (-130)

 

The Outcome of First Coach's Challenge

Since 2014, there have only been four games that have featured challenges. In the last two Super Bowls with challenges, the first challenge flag has not come until the second half. 

2019: Call overturned in 4th quarter

2017: Call overturned in 3rd quarter

2016: Challenge upheld in 1st quarter

2014: Challenge upheld in 1st quarter

2013: Challenge overturned in 4th quarter

2012: Challenge overturn in 4th quarter

2011: Challenge upheld in 4th quarter

2010: Challenge upheld in 4th quarter

The coach winning the call is on a two-game winning streak. There have been eight games in the last 10 years with challenge flags, and the first call has been upheld four times.

The booth has more power in making calls, reviews, and stopping play than, say, 10 years ago, so there are more stoppages without challenge flags. We may not see a challenge flag in this game, but if we do, the odds are about as even as a coin flip over the last decade. Might as well ride the hot hand!

Pick: Coach Wins - Call Overturned (-103)

 

Will Any Team Call a Timeout in the First Quarter? 

I like this prop but was surprised when looking up past Super Bowls that there have not been many games with timeouts in the first quarter. Dating all the way back to 2011 between Pittsburgh and Green Bay is the last time outside of 2019 we saw a timeout in the first quarter of a Super Bowl. 

Tom Brady is playing in his 10th Super Bowl, and in all of them, there were two first-quarter timeouts in 2019, and that is it. 

2019: First Quarter

2018: Second Quarter

2017: Second Quarter

2015: Second Quarter

2012: Second Quarter

2008: Second Quarter

2005: Second Quarter

2004: Second Quarter

2002: Second Quarter

Mahomes played in his first Super Bowl last season and did not call a timeout in the opening frame, and neither did the 49ers. If you can get the second quarter for the first timeout, that is the best option as that bet has cashed eight of the last nine years and eight-of-nine Brady-featured Super Bowls. 

Pick: No (-556)

Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and also a contributor on numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.