SPREAD TO BET NOW: BUFFALO BILLS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3, 40)
Have you seen that image of Baker Mayfield in the postgame press conference after last week’s loss to Denver? Of course, you have. That meme-inspiring mug shot is the personification of how the betting public views the Browns right now. And it ain’t pretty.
Cleveland is sitting as a field-goal favorite hosting the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, and that line is swinging towards the road team. There are some books that have already ticked off the key number to -2.5 (and a handful that actually went to -2) while others are on their way, with discounted juiced on Cleveland -3 trying to stick to the field goal.
If you like the Bills in this one, grab them +3 if you can. Buffalo has bookended a bad loss at home to Philadelphia in Week 8 with cupcake wins over the Dolphins and Redskins, but is 3-0 ATS as a visitor in 2019.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: ARIZONA CARDINALS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4.5, 51.5)
The Buccaneers are back home for the first time in almost 50 days in Week 10 and welcome the Arizona Cardinals to Raymond James Sunday. Oddsmakers sent out Tampa Bay as big as a 6-point home chalk and that has been bet down to -4.5 with money on the underdog.
Now, the Bucs have had some bad luck in the past two games. Tampa Bay was robbed of a vital scoop-and-score at Tennessee in Week 8 and got hosed on a similar call in its overtime loss to Seattle last Sunday. This team could easily be on a two-game winning streak and this spread would look much different.
Arizona put up a good fight versus San Francisco and has a mini bye due to that Thursday outing in Week 9. Even after the move to -4.5 (and -4 at select markets), some books are slimming the vig on Tampa Bay and at that dead number, a sudden jolt to -3.5 isn’t out of the question. In you’re backing the Buccos, play the waiting game.
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TOTAL TO BET NOW: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS UNDER 43.5
The status of Colts QB Jacoby Brissett will have a large impact on this number, after getting his knee and ankle twisted up in Week 9. Brissett is playing well – safe but well – for Indianapolis in the wake of Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement, but this offense is still very much about the run (46.7 percent rushing plays).
Given his importance to the Colts’ playoff chances and the fact that this week’s opponent is Miami – the red-hot Fins, I should add – the team will likely lean to resting Brissett, bringing out backup QB Brian Hoyer to hand off a lot.
Once Brissett is officially announced out of action, the public will overreact to his absence and walk this total down a few more points. If you like the Under in this one, bet it now at 43.5. The Dolphins Offense is still a mess, just lost RB Mark Walton to a suspension, and Indy will ground and pound in what should be a very uneventful afternoon.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: LOS ANGELES RAMS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS OVER 44
This non-conference clash opened with the Over/Under as high as 45.5 and has watched a point and a half chopped off with early money on the Under. The Rams are coming off a bye week and suffocated a pair bad teams – Atlanta and Cincinnati – to 10 points apiece in their last two outings.
The Steelers Defense has looked solid since Week 4, giving up just 16.8 points per game over their last five contests. Also working in Pittsburgh’s favor could be the forecast, which is calling for a little “Guns N’ Roses” late on Sunday: cold November rain. That’s a far cry from the sun and surf of southern California.
Los Angeles has put up some sizable numbers on the road this season, averaging 28 points as a visitor in 2019, and while a lot will be made of QB Jared Goff’s career home/road splits, the production isn’t that different to warrant an auto-Under play. If you’re thinking about the Over in this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, play it cool and see how low the total will go before pulling the trigger.