No. 3 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 1 Louisiana State Tigers – Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5
Louisiana State is coming off a memorable – at least for its bettors and fans – dismantling of Oklahoma in the CFP semifinals, leading to the bulk of the money so far running in LSU’s direction. The Tigers (14-0 SU, 9-5 ATS) got seven touchdown passes from Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow in the first half of a 63-28 battering as 12.5-point Peach Bowl favorites.
Clemson is in the national title game for the for the fourth time in five years, going for its second straight championship and third in four years. The Tigers (14-0 SU, 11-3 ATS) had a much tougher semifinal task than LSU, rallying from a 16-0 second-quarter deficit to pull with 16-14 at halftime against Ohio State, then getting a late touchdown to secure a 29-23 victory as 2.5-point Fiesta Bowl faves.
When the line posted Dec. 28, it took just more than an hour to move from LSU -3.5 to -5.
“We’ve got a lot of money on LSU,” Wilkinson told Covers on Monday. “We like Clemson in the game, actually, but we expect the line to go higher closer to game day, 6 or 6.5. And then we expect to see sharp money on Clemson.”
Granted, the sharp play won’t overcome all the public cash on LSU, but that’s fine by The SuperBook’s odds team.
“We do really well on Clemson to win in the futures book. So this could set up to be a monster day for us,” Wilkinson said. “We think the sharp side is Clemson, and we’re gonna take our position there.”
The SuperBook opened the total intentionally high at 71.5 and within a couple of hours dropped to 70, where the number sat for a week before ticking to 69.5 Saturday.
“We’ve still got the public betting the Over,” Wilkinson said of action for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff on Monday night at the Superdome. “It’s two really good teams with really good offenses, so we’re still getting a ton of Over money. It’s not gonna stop. The public is just gonna bet favorite and Over.”
On the big-bet front, Wilkinson said the larger plays so far have come on the favored Bayou Bengals, including a $50,000 wager almost right out of the gate at LSU -4, helping drive that speedy early line movement.
“There are no really big bets on Clemson yet, but I think we’ll get some,” he said.