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Odds and Ends

Betting SEC CFB win total odds

by Covers.com
Updated On: April 9, 2020, 1:35 pm ET

SEC College Football 2020 Season Win Total Odds

No surprises here, as Alabama is atop the SEC betting odds for regular-season wins, and the Crimson Tide will surely be part of the postseason conversation, too, aiming for another NCAA football championship. But based on other teams’ numbers, oddsmakers expect a very competitive SEC this year.

 

Highest Win Total: Alabama Crimson Tide

The Alabama win total opened at 10.5, and in fact the Over is juiced to -140, followed by Florida and Georgia at 10, and Texas A&M at 9.5. Defending national champion Louisiana State’s win total opened at 9.

Alabama’s number is interesting, considering quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wideout Jerry Jeudy, among others, are headed to the NFL. But coach Nick Saban never really rebuilds, he just reloads. A deep running back corps returns, led by Najee Harris, who ran for 1,244 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. The offensive line returns four starters, and six starters are back on defense. Bama opens the college football schedule versus Southern California on September 5.

 

 

Lowest Win Total: Vanderbilt Commodores

It’s probably no surprise here, either, with Vanderbilt opening at 3 wins, though the Over is -150. The Commodores were 3-9 SU and ATS last season, ahead of only Arkansas (2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS). Vandy ranked among the bottom 20 teams in the nation in four offensive categories, including 125th in points scored at 16.5 per game, and two defensive categories, including 113th in takeaways with just six all year.

 

Team Of Note: Auburn Tigers

Auburn was a solid 9-3 SU and ATS in the 2019-20 regular season, capped by a riveting 48-45 Iron Bowl win as a 3.5-point home underdog against Alabama. The Tigers then lost to Minnesota in the Outback Bowl. However, four of five starters in the defensive backfield are gone, as are four of five on the offensive line, along with offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham, who jumped to the same post at Florida State.

Caesars books opened Auburn at 8.5 wins.

“Auburn was an interesting one,” Caesars sportsbooks director of trading Jeff Davis told Covers. “The math made the number right around 9, but looking at the Tigers’ schedule, with games at Georgia and at Alabama, it is tough to hang 9. They would need to win the remainder of their schedule to go Over. We chose to hang 8.5 Over -190, and it hasn’t received any play.”

 

SEC 2020 Season Win Total Odds

TEAM                  

OVER

UNDER

Alabama

10.5 (-140)

10.5 (+120)

Florida

10 (-135)

10 (+115)

Georgia

10 (+105)

10 (-125)

Texas A&M

9.5 (+135)

9.5 (-155)

Louisiana State

9 (+110)

9 (-130)

Auburn

8.5 (-190)

8.5 (+170)

Tennessee

7.5 (-160)

7.5 (+140)

Kentucky

7 (-135)

7 (+115)

Mississippi State

6.5 (+150)

6.5 (-170)

South Carolina

5.5 (-160)

5.5 (+140)

Mississippi

5.5 (-120)

5.5 (Even)

Missouri

5 (-115)

5 (-105)

Arkansas

3.5 (-105)

3.5 (-115)

Vanderbilt

3 (-150)

3 (+130)

 

How to bet season win totals

Season win totals are somewhat self explanatory: betting on how many wins a team will have that season. 

Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team - based on past success, returning personnel and strength of schedule - and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under).

On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets – also known as vig or juice – depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total. 

For example, oddsmakers calculate TEAM A to win nine games this upcoming season but do feel like there’s a better chance of them winning 10 games rather than 8. Therefor, they set TEAM A with a win total of 9 but increase the vig on the OVER to -130 (bet $1.30 to win $1) and decrease the vig on the UNDER to +110 (win $1.10 for every $1 bet).  

OVER 9 WINS (-130)
UNDER 9 WINS (+110)

Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.