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Odds and Ends

Clippers seek 14th straight win over Magic

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: January 29, 2021, 3:46 pm ET

Top Game to Bet: Clippers (-6) at Magic

Whoever grabbed the Clippers at +3.5 this morning had a steal of a spread. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were presumed out until this morning, pushing the spread to -6 in favor of L.A.

The Magic have lost 13 games SU to the Clippers dating back to 2014. The Clippers are 11-1-1 ATS versus the Magic when it comes to the -5 offered today. LA has beaten Orlando by 10 or more points in nine of the last 13 meetings. 

The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Orlando and 4-0 in the last four overall. The Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Orlando. The Clippers played last night, defeating the injury-riddled Heat team, 109-105. Nine Clippers played and only two recorded more than 28 minutes, Nicolas Batum and Reggie Jackson

The Clippers are allowing 103.0 points per game (2nd) over the last five outings and the Magic at 110.4 (13th). Orlando is struggling to score this season, ranking 28th on the season with 105.6 points per game and 108.6 (23rd) over the last five games. Los Angeles has held eight straight opponents to 108 points or fewer. 

The Over/Under jumped from 212 to 218 once the news of Leonard and George broke. I will wait to see what kind of number we closer to tip, but I will grab the Under if this total reaches 220. The Clippers are a major parlay piece sitting at -195 and -200 on most books and climbing. 

With 13 straight wins over the Magic, I will parlay the Clippers' Moneyline with most action today and wait for some live betting value. The spread will continue to grow, and I will not play this for more than 0.5 units since I missed out on the amazing price this morning.

Trends to Note:

The Under is 6-2 in Magic's last eight home games.

Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Clippers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Orlando.

Clippers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Under is 3-0-1 in Magic last four versus a team with a winning straight up record.

The Under is 3-0-1 in Clippers last four versus a team with a losing straight up record.

Bet Locked In: Clippers -6 (0.5u), Clippers Moneyline in parlays

Waiting for Under 220.0-220.5 Total

 

Top Team to Fade: Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers are 0-4 SU on the season without Joel Embiid and 13-2 with him after the one-point win over the Lakers. Embiid is questionable due to back tightness tonight and if he is out, count me in on Minnesota. D'Angelo Russell is questionable to play, and if he is in, that is a much-needed boost that makes me want to back the Timberwolves that much more. 

This entire game will be centered around if either Embiid or Russell suit up, but if neither do, I like Minnesota. There is a strong trend with Philly losing six straight games when Embiid is out, and regardless of whom they play, that trend is worth riding. I would circle Tobias Harris' 20.5 Point Prop tonight as a potential bet. If Embiid is out, grab this immediately as it sits at +105 on DraftKings. Ben Simmons has scored 11, 11, and 15 points in three games without Embiid. Harris has scored 16, 21 and 25 points in three games without him. 

The Timberwolves lost two straight over Golden State and watched Malik Beasley go off for 25 and 30 points. Rookie and No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards had 15 and 25 points in the last two games. If Russell returns, the trio could be dangerous versus Philadelphia. On the other hand, if Russell sits, back one of the two Minnesota players to score an abundance of points without Karl-Anthony Towns and Russell.

If Embiid is out, scoop Minnesota and Harris Over 20.5 Points. The spread is playable down to +5 and Harris up to 21.5 points.

Bet Locked In: Timberwolves +7 (1u) and Tobias Harris Over 20.5 Points (1u) - IF Embiid is out 

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Friday Betting Notes:

Hawks at Wizards: Over/Under 234

This total is a tough one as both squads have been polar opposites on offense and defense. The Hawks have had the Under hit in five of the last six games and is 7-1 in the last eight meetings when visiting Washington.

One thing I do know is Trae Young has picked his play up for the Hawks. Young has scored 28 or more in four straight games recording 28, 38, 38 and 43 points. Last season Young scored 19 and 45 points on the Wizards. Washington allows the second-most points per game to point guards this season (27.12).

Young accounted for 30% or more of the points in three straight games before 21% (28 points) in his previous outing. Atlanta is going as he goes right now, and with 26 or more points in five of his previous six games. The Wizards are in a slump and are visibly frustrated. Back Young to go for 30 tonight. 

Bet Locked In: Trae Young Over 27.5 Points (1u)

 

Cavs at Knicks: Over/Under 209

This is a tough game to bet on because both teams are so evenly matched in some areas. Both teams are the two lowest-scoring squads in the NBA this season, but Cleveland has had its struggles defensively over the last few games. 

Cleveland is allowing 122.2 points per game on them in the last five. The Over is 6-0 in the Cavs' last six games, while the Knicks have gone Under-five of the previous six home games. When these two teams meet, the Over has cashed in five of the last seven games. If you are looking for one of the Knicks' rare Overs, this could be one of the few. 

New York is 12-4 to the Under in the last 16 games overall. One player I target in this matchup is Andre Drummond. I hit on his 14.5 rebounds versus the Pistons, and with a total set at 13.5, this could be worth another swing versus New York. Another rebound prop of my interest is R.J. Barrett's. 

Barrett's rebound total is set at 6.5, and in two games, he has recorded four and seven boards versus the Cavs. None of those meetings featured Jarrett Allen, the Nets' new center to relieve Drummond. Julius Randle is also in the mix with plenty of other options, making it tough to see Barrett doing much damage on the boards.

Most models project him at five boards for the game and in his last four games, Barrett has only gone Over 6.5 rebounds once. I grabbed this at -142 and would not play this past -150.

Bets Locked In: R.J. Barrett Under 6.5 Rebounds (1u)

Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and also a contributor on numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.