Kawhi Leonard O/U 22.5 Points vs. Raptors
Kawhi Leonard meets his former Raptors squad for the first time this season in his second game returning from injury. Leonard scored 16 points and added six assists and five rebounds in his first game back, losing by six points to the Nuggets.
Leonard has scored 23 or more points in 33-of-47 games this season (70.2%).
This number is low due to him coming back, but with a day of rest before this matchup, Leonard should ready for 30-plus minutes and an increase of usage on offense.
NBC's model projects Leonard to score 22.4 points in 32 minutes versus Toronto. When you use the simulator and adjust Leonard's minutes to 34 minutes, his career average in 10 starts versus Toronto, his projection rises to 23.8 points.
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The Raptors allow the seventh-most three-pointers per game (37.6) over the last five outings. Toronto is 15th with 21.8 free-throw attempts allowed in that span and both could be concerning versus Leonard and Paul George tonight.
Toronto also allows the third-most points per game (PPG) to power forwards (22.43), which is another positive sign.
Leonard went two-of-three from deep versus Denver, hitting two smooth step-back triples.
Leonard will likely keep shooting from deep in order to get his rhythm back and after a 7-of-12 (58.3%) performance from the field, expect more field goal attempts in this contest.
George attempted 21 shots in Leonard's first game back and that will only even out as time passes, starting here. The model predicts Leonard to shoot 16.7 field goal attempts.
When Leonard shoots at least 16 times, he averages 27.1 PPG in the last seven that qualify, going Over 22.5 Points in all seven. In the last 10, that number is 26.0 PPG, going 8-2 to the Over with 22 and 20 in the other two.
When Leonard makes two or more three-pointers, he averages 23.3 PPG and went Over 22.5 points in 7-of-10 games (70%). 16 field goal attempts with a few made triples will be the key tonight.
I believe Leonard will get enough attempts in this game to score at least 20 points and 22.5 seems like a gift for the time being. Back Leonard to score 23-plus points tonight up to 23.5 for 1.5u and 24.5 for 1u.
Pick: Kawhi Leonard Over 22.5 Points (2u)
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