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Luka Doncic
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Odds and Ends

Dallas, Doncic bettors delight in Back to Back

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: January 18, 2021, 10:18 am ET

Top Game to Bet: Mavericks (+5) at Raptors

Happy MLK DAY! If you have off work today, kick back, relax, and enjoy a full slate of NBA hoops.

The Dallas Mavericks and Toronto Raptors are trending in different directions right now but aren't far apart. Toronto earned two straight wins over Charlotte while Dallas lost two straight versus Chicago and Milwaukee.

The Raptors failed to cover both home games versus the Hornets. The Mavericks covered against the Bucks and failed to versus the Bulls on Sunday, losing by 16. Doncic was quoted after the game calling his 36 points, 16 rebounds and 15 assists triple-double performance versus the Bulls "selfish." If that's the case, Doncic's Over/Under 9.5 Assists tonight looks like a great prop if he was being selfish Sunday.

The Mavericks have a quick turnaround going from Dallas to Orlando to face Toronto in their temporary home. On back-to-backs, Dallas has gone 6-4 SU in the last 10, and when taking into account the +4 spread, they are 8-1-1 ATS. 

When Dallas is on a two-game losing streak, the next game, they are 8-0 SU dating back to the beginning of the 2019-20 season. A perfect 8-0 meaning Dallas avoided going on a three-game losing streak all last season. Right now, the Mavericks are far from the team we all expect, but this is a favorable game for them to earn a win.

With no real home-court advantage and two wins combined by six points since Thursday, Toronto has shown they're hard to trust as a favorite. Toronto's trends are all horrid, but the worst is 1-9 ATS in their previous 10 home games and 0-5 ATS following a SU win. 

That's not worth putting your money on, especially since their four wins are versus teams combined for a 23-34 record on the season.

The Mavericks have beaten the Clippers, Heat, Hornets, Magic, Nuggets and Rockets this season. They also lost by four or fewer to the Bucks and Suns, two more playoff teams added to their resume. In the previous four meetings, all with Doncic, the Raptors have won three, and the Mavs lost by three, three and nine points. 

Comparing the past Toronto teams Doncic and Dallas has faced, this one is the best matchup by far. Dallas has held opponents to 105.1 points per game this season (3rd), and the Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings with Toronto. Interestingly enough, the Raptors are outscoring Dallas 111.5 to 109.3 to start the season.

This could be a low-scoring affair as usual between the two squads, but I like Dallas to keep it close and squeak out a win (+130). If you're worried about Dallas on a back-to-back, the Mavs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting five combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.

Dallas' Jalen Brunson's (health protocols) expected to make a return after being left off the injury report Sunday. Alex Len will be out for Toronto, leaving Chris Boucher the most likely option to replace him in the starting lineup. Aron Baynes has received the start over the previous two. 

Trends to Note

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their lasts six games only on one day's rest.

The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home.

Bets Locked In: Mavericks +5 (1u), Mavericks ML (0.5u)

 

Top Team to Fade: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves are 8-3-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Atlanta but 1-4-1 in the last six overall. On Monday, Atlanta will host Minnesota without Karl-Anthony Towns, who was diagnosed with COVID. He's in all basketball fans' thoughts over the weekend, and we wish him nothing but a full and quick recovery. 

His presence will be missed for Minnesota, who averaged 23.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 blocks in his two games back. The Wolves are 1-8 over their last nine games, losing by double-digits in six-of-nine. Minnesota scored 88 and 107 points over their previous two games, a favorable sign for Atlanta, who's played in eight consecutive games finishing Under the game total.

The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the two teams and 5-1 in Minnesota's last six this season. Despite Minnesota hitting Overs, this matchup is probably the opposite time to bet the Over. At 227.0 game total, Atlanta hasn't only gone over that in eight consecutive games. With two games versus Minnesota and one with Detroit in between, you can expect this Atlanta offense to get back on track sooner rather than later though.

The Hawks Team Total is 117.5, a little too high for my taste. Dec. 30th was the last time they've done that. The Wolves Team Total of 110.5 is far more appealing, a number they've gone Under in five-of-eight losses. Hawks' Danillo Gallinari is doubtful for this matchup, and Cam Reddish questionable. For the Wolves, Josh Okgoie (probable), Ricky Rubio (out) and Juancho Hernangomez (health protocols) are all day-to-day.

I'd wait to see the line movement once injuries are announced, but I lean Hawks -8 and Under 227.

Trends to Note

The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

The Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Over is 5-1 in Timberwolves' last six games as an underdog.

The Under is 4-0 in Hawks' last four games as a home favorite.

The Timberwolves are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Bets Locked In: Awaiting lineups

 

Monday Betting Notes

Magic at Knicks: Under 207

The New York Knicks won! They obliterated the Celtics, winning 105-75. For playing so well, it was unbelievable the Knicks only scored 105 points. Matched up with Orlando, this is an excellent opportunity for both squads to earn a much-needed win.

The Magic are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, with the Under hitting 4-0-1 over the previous five versus the Knicks. The Under looks like a great look once again as the line opened at 208 and moved down to 207. Orlando has lost five straight games failing to score 100 points in four consecutive before 115 versus the Nets in Harden's debut. The Knicks scored more than 105 points once over the last six games, and I doubt they do against the Magic here.

The Under is 5-2 in the Knicks' last seven home games and 9-2 in the previous 11. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Magic's last nine overall, and in their previous five games, every team scored 112 or more. New York has scored more than 112 twice this season, and in the last few meetings, the scores have been extremely low.

In 2019-20, Orlando won 105-103 and New York 95-83. When playing in New York over the previous five meetings, the combined scores have been 170, 204, 205, 208 and 211. I'll take a swing on the Under 207 for a low wager. The Magic are still without Mo Bamba, Evan Fournier and Michael Carer-Williams, pointing me to towards the Under.

Bet Locked In: Under 207 (1u)

 

Pistons at Heat: Heat -6

The Pistons came away with a 120-100 victory versus the Heat on Saturday, the third victory of the year for Detroit. The Pistons are now 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Miami after being 1-6. Miami is still without Jimmy Butler (health protocols), Avery Bradley (health protocols), Meyers Leonard (shoulder), and Tyler Herro (neck) is questionable. 

Detroit will go for their first winning streak of the season, and this is a Miami spot or nothing, in my opinion. Miami has won five of the last seven home games versus Detroit, and the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games following a double-digit loss at home. Eight of the Pistons' nine losses this season have come by at least eight points. If Herro suits up, I'll have a play on Miami. Check back on Twitter @VmoneySports.

 

Suns at Grizzlies: Grizzlies +3

Memphis has won three straight meetings against Phoenix, and the Grizzlies are rolling right now. They received a boost to the lineup with Ja Morant back, and he had 17 points and six assists in 31 minutes, shooting 50% from the field (7/14).

Memphis has won four games in a row, and the Suns are 2-3 in their last five. Morant is listed as questionable, while Jonas Valanciunas is out for Memphis, leaving Deandre Ayton wide open for more production. 

The Suns are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings with the Grizzlies but are 17-5 in their previous 22 games overall, dating back to last season. If Morant is out, it's the Suns all the way. If he plays, it's more of a live-bet situation, but props on Ayton are going to be a must-play depending on what his lines open at.

 

Spurs at Blazers: Spurs -1

C.J. McCollum (foot) and Jusuf Nurkic (wrist) are out for the Blazers, leaving Damian Lillard in no man's land versus the Spurs. San Antonio has struggled in Portland over the last four meetings going 0-3-1 ATS, but this is a favorable matchup.

The Spurs will have the first crack at the Blazers without two of their three best players. San Antonio has gone 5-2 SU over the last seven overall games and won two of the past three. Portland was rolling with four straight wins before splitting the previous two games 1-1. These injuries are surely going to take a hit to the Blazers current success 

I would take a look at the Spurs Team Total of 112.5. San Antonio has scored 113 or more in five of the last six meetings with Portland, and the Over has hit in the previous four. The Blazers' ability to score outside of Lillard is a cause for concern regarding the game total. Going off that, in all five losses, Portland has allowed at least 111 points. In six of the Spurs' seven wins, they've scored 112 or more.

The Over is also 4-0 over the last four meetings in Portland and defense could be non-existent for both squads if Lillard starts cooking and Portland controls the pace. When Lillard has scored 30 points this season, the opposing team has scored 112 or more in six of seven games this season alone with the Warriors being the lone under.

Bet Locked In: Spurs Team Total Over 112.5 (1.5u)

 

Bucks at Nets: Bucks -2

Here we go! The two top teams in the East, or at least whom we expect to be. James Harden will play his second game for the Nets while we await the return of Kyrie Irving (questionable) and the new-look "Big 3."

The Bucks are 16-4-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Brooklyn, with the Over cashing in five of the previous seven games. The Nets have been a perfect example of all offense and no defense. Brooklyn's game total Over has cashed eight consecutive games now, while the Under is 4-0 in the Bucks last four.

This is a -2-point spread, so it's either team's game, but I lean Brooklyn and the Over if Kyrie Irving plays. Giannis Antetokounmpo has picked up his play over the last two games with a 22/10/10 triple-double and 31 points and nine rebounds in his previous game. Harden started his Nets career with a triple-double of his own, 32 points, 14 assists and 12 rebounds in 40 minutes. This should be a thrilling game no matter what team you bet on.

A piece of advice would be live betting this game as both offenses are capable of going on runs. You could probably play both sides for plus money today.

 

Warriors at Lakers: Under 224.5

What a fun nightcap this is going to be! The Warriors had aspirations of being a title contender this season, and while Golden State still believes they are, the L.A. Lakers continue to put the Western Conference on notice with their play. 

These two teams play physical every meeting, and the Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings. The Under has been a hot play for both teams, currently going 5-0 in the Warriors' previous five and 4-1 in the Lakers' last five at home. Draymond Green returning to the Warriors certainly increases the chances of an Under as the team has gone 4-4 with five straight games coming for 220 or fewer.

L.A. is 4-0 ATS in their last four games and won five straight and nine of their previous 10 games. The Lakers have won three consecutive games in this series after the Warriors won during the Kevin Durant era. The Lakers have LeBron James (sprained ankle), Anthony Davis (lower back), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle) and Wesley Matthews (Achilles) are all probably for this matchup, and if they're a go, I will look at the Under or Lakers' first-half.

L.A. averages 59.6 points per game in the first-half, seventh-most, and Golden State is 16th with 56.0. The Lakers have scored at least 54 first-half points in all but two games this season and three straight versus the Warriors.

Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and also a contributor on numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.