Super Bowl LIV is less than 10 days away and we're be analyzing the odds and compiling the best betting angles for the Big Game – and not just for spreads and totals but player props, derivatives and even some whacky props too (Puppy Bowl anyone?)
The Kansas City Chiefs have played two playoff games and have combined for 90 first-half points. They have spotted their opponents 20.5 first-half points per game while Patrick Mahomes and the offense have averaged 24.5 themselves. The Chiefs have done all their first-half scoring with seven touchdowns and zero field goals as the red zone has become a familiar and comfortable place for the offense. In their six, first-half trips inside their opponents’ 20, Kansas City has scored six TDs.
San Francisco has been no stranger to first-half Overs as they have put up 41 first-half points in its two playoff games and have seen first-half totals of 27 and 24 points. We love how quickly Mahomes and the Chiefs can score (averaging just over two minutes per first-half touchdown drive in the playoffs) and are riding the Chiefs’ first-half team total Over 13.5 points but think the first-half Over 27 is also a great play.
LONGER THAN YOURS
With the 49ers leaning on the run heavily through two playoff games (89 rushing attempts to just 27 passes) we think K.C. has the best chance of scoring the longest touchdown and with the odds at -120 for both teams, we see great value.
The Chiefs have scored six touchdowns of 40-plus yards over their last seven games and have scored the longest TD in six of those sevens games. The 49ers, on the other hand, have scored just one TD of 40-plus yards (a defensive INT) since Week 15 and have an average TD length of 14.25 yards over that stretch (K.C. averages 22 yards per TD).
Last week, the Niners gave up receptions of 65, 42 and 23 yards to the Packers and let Stefon Diggs score a 41-yard touchdown in the Divisional round. We are taking the more explosive offense to score the longest TD.
PUPPY BOWL 16
The Puppy Bowl is the appetizer for the day’s big match. The Animal Planet “competition” features adoptable pets from rescue shelters (most are already adopted by kickoff) from all over America. Some books have odds on the spread (Team Fluff -7.5 +100 Vs. Team Ruff +7.5 -140), gender of MVP (male -130, female -110) and will a puppy attempt to mate (yes +350, No -600). There are 42 starters (21 aside) and each team has 27 backups.
Of the 42 starters, 24 of them are 17 weeks or younger while the remaining 18 are 18 weeks or older. If the MVP is Under 17.5 weeks old is, bettors can pick up 1.57 times their wager and 2.35 times if the MVP is Over 17.5 weeks old. A sharp line indeed, maybe we will just take Team Ruff and the points at -140.
San Francisco running back Tevin Coleman was still sidelined at practice on Thursday after dislocating his shoulder last week. He was seen running on the sidelines but there could be great value jumping on his teammate’s rushing total early.
With his rushing total at 65.5 yards, it would seem the books aren’t expecting Raheem Mostert to take the entirety of the backfield touches (last week Mostert's and Coleman's combined totals were around 95 yards) on an offense that has averaged 44.5 rushes per game during its postseason run. If Coleman’s outlook becomes bleaker as the weekend hits, Mostert’s total could easily hit 72-79 yards.
Although the K.C. rush defense held Derrick Henry to 69 yards last week, this is still a unit that finished 29th in DVOA rush defense this year and faces a San Francisco rushing attack that has been getting 4.54 yards per carry over its last four games against the 8th, 9th, 23rd and 26th DVOA rush defenses.
Sign us up for Mostert’s Over on his 65.5 rushing yards.
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