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Odds and Ends

Finding the right teaser for Week 4

by Sam Panayotovich
Updated On: October 3, 2020, 5:56 pm ET

Last week's teaser came through on the Patriots and Vikings, so obviously we need to fire another one this weekend. Those are the rules. 

If you're new around here, a teaser is a bet that allows you to adjust the point spread six points whichever way you choose. You must select a minimum of two bets, but you have to win all the bets in the teaser to cash the ticket. 

While some people like to maximize their payout and do four or five-team teasers, your chances of winning get increasingly more difficult with every extra team you add. I’ll stick with the standard two-teamer and tease through the most important numbers in football – 3 and 7.

The Chicago Bears made the correct move at quarterback. Benching Mitch Trubisky needed to happen. Nick Foles maximizes their chance to win every week. He’s way more accurate and doesn’t play the position with happy feet. Bookmakers will say there’s either no difference or that Foles is only a point better, but I disagree.

Chicago hasn’t had an accurate quarterback since Jay Cutler left town to become a reality star. In Matt Nagy’s offense, the signal caller needs to give the receivers a chance to make a play. And contrary to popular belief, consistently overthrowing your targets and making the wrong reads is not good.

All that said, I still want more than +2.5 with Chicago.

Teaser time!

I’ll gladly take the Bears from +2.5 and go through the 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8 all the way up to +8.5. Now I’ve got plenty of wiggle room with a defense that should keep me inside the adjusted number. Especially if the Bears’ pass rush can get to the immobile Philip Rivers.

For the second game, we need to slip on our contrarian pants. We picked the Buffalo Bills -2.5 last week for Best Bets and that should’ve been the easiest winner of the day. Josh Allen and Co. jumped ahead 28-3 at home then almost lost 32-28. It was maddening. A crucial flag on fourth down allowed Buffalo to win the game in the closing seconds to improve to 3-and-0.

So the increasingly overinflated Bills head to Las Vegas this weekend to face a Raiders team that got Belichick’d last week. Darren Waller ended up on a milk carton and the Patriots eventually put the game out of reach after Vegas hung around for about three quarters.

Vegas was the sexy team to bet last week catching six points in Foxborough and now they’re getting three points at home. That’s life in the NFL. Thing is, Buffalo could be the biggest public road favorite of the week. Many people are going to stare at the board and think “hmmm Buffalo is only -3, yeah they should win by that.”

You know and I know it’s never that simple.

I am more than okay with kicking this spread up from +3 through 4, 6, 7, 8 all the way to +9. Give me that free wheeling offense getting nine points at home and I’ll stand in line every week – as long as Belichick isn’t on the other sideline.

Tease the Bears +8.5 to the Raiders +9.

Sam Panayotovich

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst from the South Side of Chicago. He'll probably pick against your favorite team a lot. Follow him @spshoot