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Dak Prescott
AP
Odds and Ends

Follow Dak's lead: Bet on Prescott in 2020

by Tim Murray
Updated On: July 24, 2020, 5:40 pm ET

On Wednesday, it became official, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott will play the 2020 season under the franchise tag. Prescott joins Kirk Cousins and Drew Brees as the only quarterbacks to play a season under the franchise tag. Cousins played two seasons under the franchise tag in Washington before signing a three-year deal with the Minnesota Vikings in 2018. Cousins bet on himself and won. Could Prescott do the same? It's possible. Prescott’s brother seems to think Dak’s time in Dallas will come to an end soon.

If Dak Prescott is willing to bet on himself, does that mean we should back Dak in 2020? 

Over/Under 4,275.5 Passing Yards

Last year, Prescott finished second in the NFL with 4,902 passing yards. Can he repeat that type of production or was it an outlier? In his first three seasons with the Cowboys, Prescott never threw for more than 4,000 yards in a season. However, looking back at last season, Pro Football Focus pointed out an intriguing stat when it came to Dallas' wide receivers.

The Cowboys upgraded its receiving core during the NFL Draft by selecting CeeDee Lamb in the first round. Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup are quite the trio of wide receivers for Prescott to throw to. Additionally, Prescott will toss it to Ezekial Elliott a bunch. Over the last two seasons, Elliott had 121 receptions for 987 yards.

Dallas parted ways with Jason Garrett this offseason and hired Mike McCarthy. Over his last four healthy seasons with McCarthy in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers surpassed 4,275 yards in three seasons (Rodgers only played seven games in 2017). 

If you are worried about durability, Prescott has not missed a game through the first four years of his career (knocking on wood while writing this).

I love the over on passing yards for Dak Prescott this season.

 

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Over/Under 9.5 wins (Over -150/Under +123)

The Cowboys finished with a disappointing 8-8 record in 2019. Enter Mike McCarthy.

When comparing the 2020 schedule to how its opponents finished in 2019, Dallas has the easiest schedule in the NFC. The Cowboys opponents went 117-138-1 (.459) last season.

Currently, Dallas is only an underdog in four games in the Westgate Superbook’s Game of the Year lines.

     
Week 1 at L.A. Rams -2.5
Week 3 at Seattle +2.5
Week 4 vs. Cleveland -6
Week 6 vs. Arizona -7
Week 7 at Washington -7.5
Week 8 at Philadelphia +2.5
Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh -3.5
Week 11 at Minnesota +2
Week 12 vs. Washington -11.5
Week 13 at Baltimore +5
Week 15 vs. San Francisco Pick
Week 16 vs. Philadelphia -3.5

 

The only games not listed for the Cowboys are Atlanta in Week 2, the Giants in Week 5, at Cincinnati in Week 14, and the season finale at the Giants in Week 17. As of right now, Dallas would be a favorite in all four of those games.

With a manageable schedule and tons of talent on both sides of the ball, I would lay the -150 juice and take over 9.5 wins for the Cowboys in 2020.

Tim Murray

Tim Murray is the co-host of The Daily Line. Follow him on Twitter @1TimMurray.