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Odds and Ends

Indians vs Royals Odds, Bets: Civale K Prop

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: May 3, 2021, 8:30 pm ET

Aaron Civale O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Royals

The Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals meet for a matchup between Aaron Civale (CLE) and Daniel Lynch (KC). Lynch will be making his MLB debut with the Royals, while Civale starts his sixth game of the season.

If Shane Bieber were not on the Indians, you would have no issue arguing Civale is the best pitcher on Cleveland with his 2021 season.

Civale is 4-0 (2.94 ERA) in five starts this season. He has recorded at least four strikeouts in every game and six Ks in three-of-five games. 

Civale has gone 7.0 innings or longer in three starts, at least 24 total batters faced and 90 pitches in all five. 

NBC's model projects Civale to record 6.5 strikeouts in 7.0 innings. His 7.0 innings is the highest projected total of any pitcher tonight, tied with Kyle Hendricks

MLB Pitchers

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Three of the last five starting pitchers versus Kansas City have hit five or more strikeouts. That is a promising sign for the right-handed pitcher. Civale has only faced four hitters on KC's roster for a total of 11 appearances.

That should bode well for Civale, facing a majority of the lineup for the first time. The Royals are hitting .237 on the season (13th) and .239 versus right-handed pitchers (12th). 

Kansas City is 8-6 on the season at home and scored three or fewer runs in four out of the previous five. Civale has limited three of his five opposing teams to two or fewer runs and six or more strikeouts in six of the previous 10 outings.

The Royals rank near the bottom of the league in strikeouts at 25th (155) overall, but this is a good spot for Civale and company. Last season, had seven strikeouts on 101 pitches, seven hits, four earned and 6.0 innings pitched.

I can see similar numbers here with fewer hits allowed by Civale. Also, versus a rookie pitcher and a team Civale should post another quality start seems like a favorable bet to place. Back Civale to earn five or more strikeouts against the Royals.

Pick: Aaron Civale Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and also a contributor on numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.