Top Game to Bet: Nets (-6.5) at Cavs
The Cavs pulled out the double-OT thriller versus Brooklyn in the first meeting, but can they do it again? Kevin Durant is out for the Nets, receiving some rest, so look at Kyrie Irving and James Harden's props if you support the Nets.
Brooklyn is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite. The Nets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an outright loss. The Cavs are thriving as home dogs at 6-2 ATS in their last eight and likely will give it all they got versus the Nets once again.
I am interested in the Nets duo of Irving and Harden. Irving failed to do much of anything else in the previous matchup versus the Cavs besides score.
Irving dropped 37 points on 28 field goal attempts and five free-throw attempts. Harden scored 21 points on 14 field goal attempts and six free-throw attempts. Both were the lowest marks for Harden with Brooklyn despite posting two triples-doubles and a double-double in his first three games. Harden has 12 or more assists in all three and 10 or more rebounds in two-of-three.
Harden is likely to record his fourth straight double-double, and most models expect at least 25 points from him in this matchup. His points rebound and assist prop is 43.5 for the evening, and that is a favorable total as Harden is capable of going for 50 PRA. Harden recorded 52 and 58 PRA with Durant alone, so let us see what he does with Irving playing Batman to his Robin.
Outside of the previous game of this series back-to-back, Harden has scored 40 or more in three straight versus Cleveland and 35 or more in four-of-five.
Bets Locked In: James Harden Over 43.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (1.5u)
Top Team to Fade: Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets
Christian Wood is out for the Rockets, giving the Pistons a shot at a victory here. In the last six meetings, Houston is 0-6 ATS, and when visiting Detroit, they are 1-4 ATS over the previous five. I will be honest and say this a fade of a game pick as you cannot trust either squad.
Jermai Grant, and a few other players, are what I have in mind. For Houston, look at newly-acquired guard Victor Oladipo. He has scored 22 and 32 points in his first two games with the Rockets.
Without Wood, Oladipo's usage and points per game average should increase. His usage rate has skyrocketed to 33.1% over his last five games compared to 29.04% on the season. He has also grabbed five rebounds in both of his games with Houston and recorded six and nine assists. His PRA total of 33.5 is appealing as Oldaipo recorded 33 and 46 in his first two games.
The Pistons allow the ninth-most points per game to shooting guards (23.85), the 10th-most rebounds (6.64), and the eighth-fewest assists (3.87). The assist number could be worrisome for Oladipo, but with the Rockets' offense continuing to spread the floor with three-point shooters, Oladipo could easily continue his impressive assist totals.
I locked in Grant Over 5.5 Rebounds at +120 odds. It is now +100 and trending towards -110 on some books. FanDuel has this for Over 4.5 for -144 odds, but a great discount for only five needed boards.
With Wood out, Grant has an advantage on the boards. The Rockets allow the sixth-most rebounds to power forwards per game (11.56). In games, Grant plays 35 or minutes this season, he averages 7.0 rebounds per game and hit the Over in eight-of-14 games overall. Grant's 7-3 to the Over when he plays 35 minutes or more. The
Monday Betting Notes
Bulls at Hornets: Hornets -3
Chicago has struggled when visiting Charlotte over the past few years. ATS, Chicago is 0-5 in Charlotte and 0-6 ATS in the last six overall meetings. The Over has gone 7-0 in this series over the last seven, so trends scream Charlotte -3 and the Over, which aren't bad plays with how both teams have played recently.
Better beware of Zach LaVine's 25.5 point prop versus Charlotte. He has gone Over in two of the last seven meetings, including three-of-four meetings last season. His lone Over was the 49-point effort, and LaVine has gone over 30 points in six of his last seven overall games this season. It is a 50-50 bet tonight on LaVine, but I lean the Under.
Knicks at Kings: Knicks +4
New York is on a roll right now, winners of three straight. Headed into Sacramento, they look to keep the good times coming, and trends favor that happening. The Knicks are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Sacramento, with the Under hitting in five straight.
The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog, which is appealing considering the Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Tread lightly as the Knicks beat the Warriors last night are due for a letdown, but only four players hit 30 or more minutes in last night's action.
Nuggets at Suns: Suns -1.5
The Suns will host Friday Nuggets in the first of a back-to-back. Denver had two days off since their win over Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Both teams enter this contest 2-2 SU in their last four games, alternating wins and losses.
Since the regular-season bubble last year, Phoenix has been a constant covering machine. The Suns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall and 9-1 ATS in their previous 10 home games. As the home favorite, Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in their last five, and Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog.