Top Game to Bet: Kings at Clippers (-8.5)
The Clippers are looking for the third-straight win over the Kings this season. The Clippers have already won by 19 and 30 points. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, but the Kings are a more impressive 7-0 ATS in the previous seven games overall. On the road, Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in their last four games too.
However, the Clippers have owned the Kings, winning 12 of the last 14 games overall. Paul George (foot) and Patrick Beverley (knee) are both out for the Clippers in this matchup. For the Kings, the injury report is good to go for this matchup, featuring all the main rotational players intact.
The Kings have kept their losses within single-digits two of the last nine meetings, but only one came by less than nine points. This time around, Sacramento has won six of their last seven games SU, and the only loss during that stretch being a one-point (105-104) loss to Miami after Sacramento led for a majority of that game.
The Clippers are 4-3 SU in the last seven games, and all three losses have come by nine or less with only one win by single-digits. This game should be closer than previous meetings and with the Kings being red-hot ATS and the Clippers being without one of their two stars -- I give Sacramento an advantage ATS.
Over the last five games, Sacramento is posting better defensive numbers than Los Angeles during that stretch in field goal percentage and three-point percentage. Still, the Clippers are atop of the league offensively in those same categories, in that span.
Strength on strength over the last five games between these two teams and without Paul George, I am going with the Kings +9 -- buying a half-point. If it stays single-digits, we have a cover.
Bet Locked In: Kings +9
Top Team to Fade: New York Knicks/Miami Heat
The Knicks are coming off two straight wins beating Chicago and Portland after losing to Chicago to start the week. The Knicks are looking to close the week out 3-1, while 2-2 seems more realistic traveling to Miami.
The Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the Under has hit in 17 of the previous 21 meetings in New York. This time around, New York enters, scoring 102, 107 and 110 points. While those numbers are low compared to the rest of the league, those are above average numbers for the Knicks offense.
Miami is 2-7 SU in the last nine games and 2-2 in the previous four games splitting with Washington and losing to Charlotte. Miami won four straight games versus New York before the Knicks won the last meeting. The Heat are not nearly cohesive enough to be laying points with many teams and the Knicks are playing good basketball against subpar teams.
Six of Miami's last seven games have gone Under 217 points, and four of the previous seven going Under 210. However, the two meetings last season combined for 243 and 245 points.
This is a tough Over/Under to place a bet on as the 208 total is extremely low. Miami won four straight before New York won the last meeting in Jan. 2020. I would throw the Heat in your Moneyline parlays today or make them one-of-two teams as they should take care of business at home to get back to 7-7 at AmericanAirlines Arena this season.
Sunday Betting Notes:
Celtics at Suns: Suns -3
The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown for a second straight game resulting in more Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker. Tatum scored 34 against the Clippers and Walker, 24. The models I use peg Walker at 21 and 22 points today, above his 19.5 point prop today, which caught my eye.
Walker played every game this season with Brown in the lineup, and without him, Marcus Smart and potentially Daniel Theis, Tatum, and Walker must step up. Against the Suns, Walker scored 19 points in his only meeting as a member of the Celtics. Walker has scored 19 and 24 points in his last two games and attempted 18 and 19 field goal attempts.
Walker is averaging 19.0 points per game this season when he attempts 15 or more field goal attempts and 20.6 when he attempts 16 or more. Walker is averaging 19.0 points per game on the road this season compared to 11.3 at home.
Last season, Walker averaged more points on the road (21.5) than at home (19.3). I like Walker to surpass 20 points, especially after playing 31 and 32 minutes the last two games. Both games marked the first two times he has played 30-plus minutes this season.
The Celtics were +7 point underdogs versus the Clippers and won outright. Do not count the Celtics out as +3 dogs again today. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Phoenix.
Bet Locked In: Kemba Walker Over 19.5 Points (1u)
Wizards at Hornets: Hornets +1.5
This is a good game for the Hornets to grab a home victory, just as much as this would be a nice road win for the Wizards. Charlotte has Devonte Graham (groin) and P.J. Washington (foot) listed as day-to-day on the injury report ahead of this matchup.
Russell Westbrook's expected to play versus Charlotte, which will be a boost for Washington. Bradley Beal scored only seven points in his last game, a loss to the Miami Heat, so he is on my radar for player props. Beal's points line remains at 32.5, which is slightly too high for me. Beal scored 32, 32 and 37 points in three of his last four games. Beal has scored seven, 31, 32, 33 and 47 points in his previous five road games.
The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Charlotte and 1-5 ATS in their previous six road games overall. The Hornets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Charlotte has also excelled as the home dog, going 9-3-1 ATS in their previous 13 games as a home underdog. I lean Hornets to get the home underdog victory and Beal to have another 30-plus point game.
Jazz at Pacers: Jazz -5
Utah has won 14 of the past 15 games this season while going 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games overall. Utah is on a roll, only allowing Denver to beat them, and as the favorite, Utah is 12-2 ATS in the last 14, all during this streak.
Mike Conley is listed as day-to-day (hamstring) for this matchup and if he is out, look at Pacers' Malcolm Brogdon to score. Brogdon's point prop is 21.5, and he has scored 12 and 13 points in the last two games but scored 21 or more in five straight and seven-of-eight prior to those two performances. The Jazz rank second in points per game to point guards (20.65), but without Conley, Brogdon has an advantage versus an elite wing team.
Brogdon scored five and 22 points in the two meetings last season. The five-point effort was in a 30-point loss. In 2018-19, Brogdon scored 21 and 16 and 19 points in 2017-18 as a member of the Bucks. If Conley is out, back Brogdon to go over 21.5 Points as he and Domantas Sabonis remain the two engines in this Pacers' offense.